UK PM Wins No Confidence Vote; Loses Support of 40% of MPs

Image copyright: AP [via The Washington Post]

The Spin

Left narrative

Despite surviving this vote, Johnson won't be able to outrun the fact that the Conservative Party has suffered a head-on collision with public opinion. He has made everyone unhappy by failing to adhere to traditional, Thatcherite Conservatism while continuing to implement cruel austerity. He deserves an undignified end but, as always, ordinary people will be the ones to suffer from his incompetence.

Right narrative

This vote has left Johnson wounded and prompted a second civil war in the Conservative Party in four years - Conservative MPs have risked posing more damage to the Party than if they had united behind Johnson despite waning popularity. He can regain support, but he must bring his MPs together under an agreed strategy of traditional conservative values.

Narrative C

Now is not the right or responsible time for Johnson to go. The UK and the rest of Europe face an international crisis over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Though a change of leader would maybe be appropriate under normal circumstances, the UK can't risk appointing a lame-duck PM at such a grave moment.

Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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