Day 82: Moscow Warnings Over NATO Membership, EU Pushes Oil Sanctions

    Image copyright: AP [via The Independant]

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine is pushing the two countries closer to NATO membership than ever before, and Moscow's threats against Finland and Sweden have backfired. As sovereign states, they're entitled to choose their own national security strategy and Russia's aggressiveness simply pushes them toward NATO.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Finland invaded Russia in 1941 together with German troops. NATO's land borders with the Russian Federation will more than double if Sweden and Finland join the alliance. NATO has ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification, and NATO's aerial bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 is proof of the organization's aggressiveness.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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