Ukraine Won't Take Whole Kherson Region Before 2022 Is Over: ISW
NewsweekDec 22, 2022
Day 245 Roundup: New British PM Re-Affirms Support for Ukraine; 'Heaviest of Battles' Ahead in Kherson, Kyiv Says
Image copyright: Downing Street [via Twitter]
The Facts
Britain's new PM, Rishi Sunak — the country's third of the year — re-affirmed the UK's support for Ukraine in a call with Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday. A Downing Street statement said he used the call to "underline the United Kingdom’s steadfast support," which it added would be "as strong as ever under his premiership."
Sunak also spoke with US Pres. Joe Biden and discussed Russia, China and post-Brexit tensions in Northern Ireland. "The leaders agreed on the importance of working together to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its aggression," a White House statement said.
The Spin
Narrative A
With Ukrainian forces zeroing in on Kherson, Russia looks set for another humiliating defeat — dashing their hopes for taking control of Mykolaiv and Odesa and creating a landbridge to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova.
Narrative B
With Russian troops bedding in and mobilizing greater forces in the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops may succeed in retaking some territory but it's unlikely they'll recapture the whole region — at least not by the end of the year.
Metaculus Prediction
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