Somalia's former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Returns to Power

    Image copyright: AFP [via France 24]

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's return to the presidency is a new glimmer of hope for Somalia. If the US government adopts a more holistic strategy in fighting terror and provides crucial assistance in combating the devastating drought, there is a reason for modest optimism.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Regardless of who governs the country, the devastating security situation in Somalia is unlikely to change decisively as long as the West, and above all the US, continue intervening in and destabilizing the Horn of Africa. The military intervention of NATO countries, as well as the acts of Somalia's own military in allegedly fighting Islamic militants, primarily serves geopolitical interests.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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