We Tried To Outguess The FiveThirtyEight Forecast
FiveThirtyEightDec 23, 2022
The Facts
In Florida's Senate debate on Tuesday, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and Congresswoman Val Demings (D) carved out their positions on several hot-button topics, including gun restrictions and abortion.
On guns, Demings accused Rubio of doing “nothing to help address gun violence” and breaking promises he made to the families of victims of a 2018 mass shooting that left 17 people dead in Parkland, Florida.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
Despite being at a disadvantage by running in ever-redder Florida, Demings is within striking distance in this race. Rubio, a career politician stuck on reelection autopilot, has nothing to offer other than flimsy policies and empty promises he can't — or won't — act on. With her background and stable ideas, Demings may be the change that Florida needs.
Republican narrative
There's nothing stable about Demings' ideas, as highlighted by her extreme position on abortion, which would allow for an exception late into a mother’s term – a view supported by just a minority of Americans. The Democrat proved she lacks substance and resorted to personal attacks in an attempt to gain favor — a cheap tactic that will unmistakably backfire.
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