The Slow-Motion Murder of Mikheil Saakashvili
AtlanticDec 23, 2022
Day 346: US Authorizes 'First-Ever Transfer' of Confiscated Russian Assets to Ukraine
Image copyright: AP [via South China Morning Post]
The Facts
During a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Friday, US Attorney General Merrick Garland said he had authorized the US to begin using assets seized from Russia to aid Ukraine. According to Garland, the money — which amounts to $5.4M — will come from Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev after he was indicted on charges of sanctions evasion last April.
Meanwhile, marking another policy reversal after agreeing to send tanks, the US has agreed to send longer-range bombs to Ukraine as part of a $2.2B weapons package announced on Friday. The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs) — expected to take months to arrive — would nearly double Ukraine's strike range to 95 miles (150 km) from the approximate 50 miles (80 km) range provided by HIMARS rockets.
The Spin
Narrative A
With Ukraine continuing to receive advanced weaponry from the West and Russia exhausting its stockpiles, 2023 is the year of victory for Ukraine — including retaking the territory of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Narrative B
After taking Crimea nearly a decade ago, the peninsula is bristling with air defenses, and Russia has thousands of troops defending it. It's very unlikely that Ukraine will be able to retake the territory any time soon.
Metaculus Prediction
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