Nicola Sturgeon’s successor should be careful what they wish for
Spectator (UK)Dec 23, 2022
The Facts
On Wednesday, Peter Murrell, the 58-year-old husband of former Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was taken into custody in connection with an investigation into the funding and finances of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP).
According to reports, detectives are questioning the former Chief Executive Officer of the SNP about the £600K (~$794K) raised by Scottish Independence campaigners in 2017 that allegedly disappeared from the party's accounts. The police are also investigating Murrell for failing to declare a personal loan of more than £100K (~$125K) he gave to the party after the last election.
The Spin
Narrative A
The SNP is deeply riven by ideological and political disputes. Its membership has fallen by 30% over the last year. Peter Murrell's arrest is likely to have a far-reaching effect on the party. These may include denting Sturgeon's successor's attempts to rebuild the party's support base, rebuilding finances, and facing stiff competition from Labour — who are now winning support from pro-UK and pro-independence voters.
Narrative B
The SNP's finances were the reason for Sturgeon's resignation — not the "physical and mental impact" of dealing with COVID. It is clear Murrell's impending arrest would’ve been awkward for her if she were still in office. Whether or not she was involved in the mishandling of funds is yet to be known, but the power couple has much to explain.
Metaculus Prediction
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