Turkey: Erdoğan Indicates Election Will Be Held May 14

    Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Soaring inflation, a weaker lira, and the deadly earthquake have led to a political maelstrom that could cost incumbent and frontrunner Erdoğan a political victory — a scenario in which a peaceful transfer of power is uncertain. While Western leaders should temper expectations, his removal would be the best hope for Turkey to correct its course.

    Narrative B

    The opposition, which struggled to unite under a single presidential candidate, is no reassurance for Turkish voters. What Turkey currently needs is a strong leader to rebuild after the earthquake disaster and guide the country through a difficult period, which is exactly what Erdoğan will continue to do.

    Metaculus Prediction


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