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Turkey: Erdoğan Indicates Election Will Be Held May 14

    story
    MAR 2023
    Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]
    story last updated MAR 2023

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Soaring inflation, a weaker lira, and the deadly earthquake have led to a political maelstrom that could cost incumbent and frontrunner Erdoğan a political victory — a scenario in which a peaceful transfer of power is uncertain. While Western leaders should temper expectations, his removal would be the best hope for Turkey to correct its course.

    FDD

    Narrative B

    The opposition, which struggled to unite under a single presidential candidate, is no reassurance for Turkish voters. What Turkey currently needs is a strong leader to rebuild after the earthquake disaster and guide the country through a difficult period, which is exactly what Erdoğan will continue to do.

    Daily Sabah

    Metaculus Prediction


    Articles on this story

    Turkish President Erdoğan’s grip on power threatened by devastating earthquake
    The ConversationJUL 2023
    How Erdoğan’s Grip on Power Made Turkey's Earthquakes Worse
    TimeJUL 2023
    For years they warned of the dangerous flaws in Turkey’s push to build. Then the earthquake struck
    IndependentJUL 2023
    Rescuers refuse to give up searching for seven-year-old brother of girl found alive in rubble
    Daily MailJUL 2023