Turkish President Erdoğan’s grip on power threatened by devastating earthquake
The ConversationDec 23, 2022
The Facts
Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated on Wednesday that the country's elections will be held on May 14, just over three months after a deadly earthquake claimed more than 45k lives.
In a speech to members of his AK party, he rejected suggestions that the presidential and parliamentary elections could be postponed or held on June 18 as formerly scheduled due to logistical challenges in the quake-hit zone. Erdoğan reportedly brought the election forward to avoid clashing with holidays in June.
The Spin
Narrative A
Soaring inflation, a weaker lira, and the deadly earthquake have led to a political maelstrom that could cost incumbent and frontrunner Erdoğan a political victory — a scenario in which a peaceful transfer of power is uncertain. While Western leaders should temper expectations, his removal would be the best hope for Turkey to correct its course.
Narrative B
The opposition, which struggled to unite under a single presidential candidate, is no reassurance for Turkish voters. What Turkey currently needs is a strong leader to rebuild after the earthquake disaster and guide the country through a difficult period, which is exactly what Erdoğan will continue to do.
Metaculus Prediction
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