Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
EconomistDec 24, 2022
The Facts
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday called on China to be more transparent about its military moves, warning that maintaining secrecy about its activities could lead to a "tragic miscalculation" amid rising regional tensions.
In his speech at London's Mansion House, Cleverly called the PRC's military activities in the Indo-Pacific "the biggest military buildup in peacetime history," and urged Beijing to be as open about the "doctrine and intent behind its military expansion" in the region as Britain and its allies.
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
While Cleverly's speech was rife with Cold War logic, it at least reflected some correction of the UK's previous aggressive stance toward China. The words might signal that London seeks a more balanced approach independent of Washington's geopolitical China strategy, and Beijing welcomes London's more pragmatic tone. However, it remains to be seen to what extent this will translate into the UK's China policy, and whether London will adhere to the one-China principle.
Anti-China narrative
Cleverly's warning against China's increasingly aggressive stance — that was made simultaneously with his calls for constructive engagement — reveals that London is increasingly willing to sacrifice its values and betray the free world. Beijing's imperial policy not only threatens Taiwan — there are clear indications that the CCP is preparing for war with the US. The British government's contradictory approach toward China will not pay off, and it must return to a clear and assertive position before it's too late.
Metaculus Prediction
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