Coffee is more expensive — and it's only going to get worse
Business InsiderDec 01
The Facts
Prices of Arabica coffee beans, the world's most popular variety, have hit a 47-year high in New York trading this week, surging over 18% to $3.44 a pound reportedly due to severe weather damage to top grower Brazil's crop next year.
Brazil is expected to produce 11M fewer bags of coffee beans in 2024, while overall global production may fall short by 8.5M bags in the 2025-26 season, partly due to a drought in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta beans.
The Spin
Narrative A
Climate change is reshaping the global coffee landscape, transforming a beloved morning ritual into a stark reminder of environmental vulnerability. Devastating droughts and rising temperatures are decimating coffee crops in key producing nations like Vietnam and Ethiopia, driving prices skyward and threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers who depend on this delicate, temperature-sensitive crop.
Narrative B
Rising coffee prices aren't a crisis, but a critical correction of a long-exploited market for this culinary commodity. Farmers finally receive fair compensation as prices climb, challenging multinational corporations' narrative of doom. This shift represents a necessary economic rebalancing, where the actual value of coffee — and the labor behind it — is finally being recognized and respected by a world waking up to smell the coffee.
Metaculus Prediction
The Controversies
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