Turning point: What is cause of protests in Georgia and why path to EU is hanging by thread
RBCMay 01
Georgia: Protesters Rally Against 'Foreign Influence' Bill
The Facts
Thousands of demonstrators protested outside the Georgian parliament on Wednesday as it passed the "foreign influence" bill in its second reading.
Though it will require a third vote to become law, the second plenary vote — approved with a vote of 83 to 23 — has cleared the way for the legislation to be passed in the coming weeks.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The crackdown on the ongoing protests proves that the government doesn't promote democracy but fears it. After abandoning the bill inspired by Russia's repressive legislation following last year's massive protests, the government is now aiming to reintroduce it under a new label. The protests are comparable to the Maidan in Kyiv a decade ago — resistance needs to continue against the bill that will become a repression tool and bury Georgia's EU hopes.
Establishment-critical narrative
Protests are a basic democratic right, but in Georgia's case, they are directed and fueled from abroad. The West fears the law — the more liberal variant of a similar 1938 US law — as it leverages its non-governmental organizations to interfere in other countries' internal affairs. The West is seeking to create a Maidan moment in Georgia by employing established tactics to regime-change the democratically elected but disobedient government. Hopefully, Georgians will not fall into this trap.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Georgia will control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.