The Bottom is Falling out for Myanmar’s Junta
Council on Foreign RelationsApr 22
The Facts
Myanmar junta soldiers have regained control of the key trading hub of Myawaddy, on the border with Thailand, a spokesman for the rebel ethnic Karen National Union (KNU) said Wednesday.
This comes a day after a junta spokesperson said that some of its troops were back in Myawaddy, and had successfully returned to a previously vacated military base.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power after pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime — temporarily recapturing Myawaddy doesn't reverse that trend. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden administration and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
Establishment-critical narrative
This latest development proves how premature it is to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar. Even if that were the case, the absence of a central command in the opposition would make it risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely be unable to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.