India: Modi's BJP Wins Delhi Election After 27 Years

India: Modi's BJP Wins Delhi Election After 27 Years
Above: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign as he arrives at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party's win in the Delhi legislative assembly election in New Delhi on Feb. 8, 2025. Image copyright:  SAJJAD HUSSAIN/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a decisive victory in Delhi's Assembly elections, winning 48 of 70 seats on Saturday, while the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) managed only 22 seats. This marks the BJP's first Delhi majority since 1998.

  • BJP received 45.7% of the vote share compared to AAP's 43.5%, while Congress could manage only 6.3% of the votes, failing to win any seats for the third consecutive election. A party needs 36 seats in the 70-seat assembly to form the government.

  • In a significant upset, AAP leader and former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal lost his New Delhi constituency to BJP's Parvesh Verma. Other party heavyweights, including Manish Sisodia and Saurabh Bharadwaj, also faced defeat in their constituencies.

The Spin

Narrative A

The BJP's historic victory highlights the success of its double-engine governance model and validates its anti-corruption campaign against AAP. The party's strategic focus on development and Modi's leadership appeal and matching welfare promises helped secure support across social classes, particularly among the middle class and prosperous voters.

Narrative B

AAP's defeat stems from systematic targeting through central agencies and administrative choking that paralyzed governance. The party's welfare initiatives and focus on education and healthcare were overshadowed by political persecution, while the multiplicity of authorities in Delhi prevented effective administration.

Metaculus Prediction

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