Ivory Coast: France Hands Over Military Base

    Ivory Coast: France Hands Over Military Base
    Above: Ivorian and French soldiers march at the entrance of general Ouattara Thomas d'Aquin military camp in Abidjan on Feb. 20, 2025.  Image copyright: Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Transfer of the military base represents France's strategic response to evolving regional dynamics. That French military support is still essential is evident from the dramatic regional security deterioration following the forced exit from coup-hit countries. Yet, with its new strategy of relying on a smaller military footprint, while maintaining vital defense partnerships and training capacities, Paris and its partners will succeed in ensuring security.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    France's exit from Ivory Coast is based on the region's growing anti-French sentiment, as its population is increasingly aware that Paris has been profiting from and fueling the region's destabilization for decades. Now Paris is embarking on a strategy that involves a reduced military presence while infiltrating African armed forces. However, no amount of maneuvering can prevent the inevitable collapse of French neo-colonialism in Africa.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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