France: Joint Committee Reaches 2025 Budget Deal

    France: Joint Committee Reaches 2025 Budget Deal
    Above: Socialistes et Apparentes' Member of Parliament Olivier Faure (R) speaks with lawmaker Boris Vallaud (L) during a session of questions to the government at The National Assembly, France's lower house parliament, in Paris on Jan. 29, 2025. Image copyright: STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • A joint parliamentary committee reached an agreement on France's delayed 2025 budget plan on Friday, setting up a vote in the National Assembly next week.

    • The Socialist Party has reportedly received concessions including the preservation of 4K teaching positions and additional hospital funding, despite remaining officially in opposition. Earlier this week, the Socialists had pulled out of budget negotiations following immigration comments made by Bayrou.

    • Bayrou has previously claimed his proposed budget aims to reduce France's deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025 through €53B ($55B) in spending cuts and tax increases. Growth forecasts have been revised down from 1.1% to 0.9%

    The Spin

    Left narrative

    Although the Socialist Party participated in budget negotiations, their involvement was out of duty to the public rather than active support for its implementation. While concessions were secured, these hardly mask the austerity status quo the budget seeks to maintain. François Bayrou still faces potential censure come next week, especially if the government makes the same ill-fated choice of using Article 49.3.

    Right narrative

    The budget agreement fails to address France's most urgent issues. Instead of cutting unnecessary spending on immigration and bloated government programs, it targets hard-working citizens and retirees. The Macronist-left wing alliance prioritizes political games over real solutions, and Bayrou's potential use of 49.3 only adds to the insult. The state should focus on fiscal responsibility, not burdening taxpayers with more wasteful woke expenditures.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Bayrou's budget is a responsible and necessary step toward stabilizing France's economy. By prioritizing fiscal discipline, it ensures the continuation of public services and addresses key challenges like reducing the public deficit and supporting vital sectors such as healthcare and education. Bayrou's experience and pro-European stance provide strong leadership, guiding France through difficult but essential reforms.

    Metaculus Prediction




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