NASA: City-Killer Asteroid Risk Drops Dramatically

Above: Near Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 impact danger corridor for 22 Dec. 2032. Image copyright: Daniel Bamberger/Renerpho via Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Narrative A

The continuous refinement of orbital calculations through additional observations typically leads to elimination of impact risk, as demonstrated by previous cases, and the current trajectory suggests the asteroid will likely miss Earth completely, following the pattern of many initially concerning space objects.

Narrative B

The asteroid poses a legitimate threat requiring ongoing monitoring, as its size could cause regional destruction, and the limited observation window until 2028 creates uncertainty about its exact trajectory, making it crucial to maintain vigilant tracking and preparation measures.

Metaculus Prediction


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