Israeli Defense Minister Tells Austin: No Choice But to Retaliate Against Iran

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The Facts

  • Axios reported that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Israel had no choice but to respond to Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend which saw Iran launch around 350 drones and missiles at Israel in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

  • Austin reportedly said that Israel must do everything it can to avoid escalation. US Pres. Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday that the US will not support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, according to a US official.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel deter military threats while also preventing regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always defend Israel's right to security. Nonetheless, it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Thankfully, Israel, with the assistance of the US and its regional allies, managed to effectively counter Iran's attack, and any further Israeli military actions are completely unnecessary.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and prevent Iran from achieving any symbolic or strategic victories in the wake of Oct. 7. Though Israel did not and does not want this war, Iranian meddling has pushed the region to the brink. Israel has made clear that Israel will not allow Iran's terror armies to hold positions on its borders, and, if Israel does not thoroughly respond to this escalation, Iran will only be more emboldened to attack.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Once again, the media have taken the bait and looked over the fact that Israel is purposefully trying to drag the US into a war with Iran to distract from its daily massacres in Gaza. If Pres. Biden had not chosen to blindly follow Netanyahu into the abyss, this situation almost certainly could have been avoided. Israel has turned into a pariah state in the global community, and if the US wants to prevent the region from falling into chaos, it must end Israel's war on Gaza.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, as the attack over the weekend will hopefully serve as a good wake-up call to Israel to end this series of escalations. Iran and its allies have been clear from day one that they do not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Iran only seeks to end Israel's crimes in Gaza, to which it has been forced to respond. Israel made a mistake in believing that Iran would not respond to its provocations, and Tehran's leadership will continue to calculate its moves appropriately.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

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