Ramadan Begins Without Gaza Cease-fire

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The Facts

  • Negotiations over a temporary cease-fire and a release of hostages between Israel and Hamas stalled Monday while Palestinians in the Gaza Strip began to fast for Ramadan. Mediators had hoped a deal could be struck before the beginning of the holy month.

  • This came after tensions between US Pres. Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flared over the weekend after Biden said in an interview that Netanyahu's policies were "hurting Israel." Netanyahu responded by calling Biden's comments incorrect and suggesting the majority of the Israeli public supports his government's decisions.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and this disaster must be remedied. So the US is taking its own steps to alleviate this dreadful situation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden administration must refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas isn't interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals — which are incredibly popular with its citizens — regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Because it's increasingly anxious over the upcoming US presidential election, the Biden administration is resorting to cheap tactics to deny it's supporting Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — incentivizing continued bloodshed. While Palestinians starve, Biden is describing grossly insufficient plans for new aid delivery mechanisms when he should be putting a stop to Israel's criminal behavior.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO