Ukraine Makes Renewed Push for NATO Membership

Above: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha talks during a joint press conference on Nov. 22, 2024 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Image copyright: Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ukrainian officials made a renewed push to convince allies in NATO to consider the war-torn country's invitation to the military alliance late this week.

  • In a letter to foreign ministers of NATO nations ahead of their meeting on Dec. 3-4, excerpts of which were published by Reuters on Friday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said: "The invitation should not be seen as an escalation."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US and Germany have been Ukraine's biggest supporters, but it must be understood that its immediate invitation into NATO is simply not possible while the conflict is ongoing. This would lead to a wider NATO-Russia war that could escalate further.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

If Ukraine becomes a properly confirmed member of NATO, it will show Russian Pres. Putin that he will be lost from a geopolitical point of view. As Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said, Russia must recognize that Europe has borders and independent states, and everyone has the right to choose their own future.

Pro-Russia narrative

Dragging Ukraine into the NATO military alliance is what started this whole conflict in the first place, particularly NATO's cultivation of Ukrainian nationalism that resulted in a violation of rights against the country's Russian-speaking citizens. Without eliminating the root cause of the conflict, it's impossible to achieve a fair settlement.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

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