The Spin
Republican narrative
While it's not surprising to see Biden trailing Trump among registered voters, it's still startling to see traditional Democratic blocs like young people and Latinos switching over to Trump in droves. The Democrats spent decades building up support among key demographics, but Biden has thrown away years of inroads with his failed administration. Biden is in deep trouble, and if he can’t even win the under-30 group, he has no chance of winning re-election.
Democratic narrative
While the polls don’t look great at the moment, it's far too early to call a victor, and Democrats need to start rallying behind their likely nominee. Biden isn’t perfect, but he inherited a mess that Trump created and has gotten the country on the right track. Ultimately, Trump is the greatest threat to American democracy, and he cannot be allowed back in the White House. Biden won in 2020, and he can still defeat Trump in 2024.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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