Controversy
Status:Resolved
Who Will Win the 2025 Canadian Federal Election?
Resolution:
Mark Carney.
Resolved on Apr 29, 2025
Claims
Spencer Hakimian"Mark Carney is now a 4 to 1 favorite to win Canada's election with just over 1 week left to go."May 24, 2025
Maxime Bernier"Pierre Poilievre will win the biggest majority in the history of our country."May 24, 2025
MetaculusHow many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election?
The Angus Reid InstituteThe Liberals' "turnaround continues to climb in elevation, boosting the party to an eight-point lead (46% to 38%) over the Conservatives."Apr 02, 2025
Oxford EconomicsThe Conservative party "is well positioned to win elections slated for 2025 at the latest."Apr 13, 2025
Michael Bociurkiw"In a national election, which has to happen by this fall, the opposition Conservative Party under Poilievre will become the new government but without the strong majority they had hoped for."Mar 10, 2025
Philippe FournierTories were "suddenly at risk of blowing one of the largest polling leads in modern Canadian history."Mar 18, 2025
Roland Paris"If there were an election today, that would likely result in a really crushing majority victory for the opposition Conservatives."Jan 07, 2025
TIME"Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, is on track to decisively win an election expected this Spring."Jan 12, 2025
Semra Sevi"Regardless of who wins the leadership, the Liberals are unlikely to win in the 2025 election."Jan 24, 2025
RBC GAM"A majority Conservative government remains likely whenever an election is called."Apr 13, 2025
Foreign Policy"Forty-five percent of Canadians say Poilievre would make the best prime minister, in contrast to 26 percent for Trudeau."Jan 02, 2025
