Controversy

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Will Lula Win the October 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?

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Claims

Last Updated 2 hours ago

"If the election were to be held tomorrow, his prospects of reelection would be slim."Apr 15, 2025

Jacobin

Manifold"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."May 31, 2026

Manifold

Good Judgment"There is a 52.40% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."May 23, 2026

Gjopen

Valor International"Lula’s position, however, is viewed with caution, as he leads for now but faces obstacles, including high rejection and government disapproval."Dec 17, 2025

Valorinternational

Brian Winter"There are signs that the Lula of 2026 is struggling to connect with voters, and could be at genuine risk."Mar 16, 2026

Americas Quarterly

Prediction Hunt"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the “2026 Brazil Presidential Election” event at 46.3% implied probability."May 23, 2026

Prediction Hunt

Granbay"There is a 50% chance Lula will win Brazil's 2026 presidential election."May 23, 2026

Granbay

Latin America Risk Report"Lula’s reelection chances are right around 50%. It’s close to a coinflip."Jan 06, 2026

Substack

PredictIt"There is a 68% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."May 23, 2026

Predictit

Kalshi"There is a 48% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."Oct 24, 2025

Kalshi

Polymarket"There is a 46% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."May 14, 2026

Polymarket

PredictMarketCap"There is a 45.5% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."May 23, 2026

PredictMarketCap

Fabio Andrade“When viewed coldly, the economic results are not bad, but they are not strong enough to generate a level of government approval that inspires full confidence in re-election."Dec 17, 2025

Valorinternational