Controversy

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Will Mexican Cartel Violence Increase After El Mencho's Death?

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Global Guardian"Rival cartels will likely take advantage of the uncertainty and chaos within the CJNG to take territory, initiating a secondary wave of violence in areas it either competes in or maintains control over."May 06, 2026

Globalguardian

Anthony Placido“If past is prologue, what we've seen is that there will be at least a week, maybe more, of these sort of violent reprisals by the cartels. And then things will turn inward."Feb 24, 2026

USA Today

Angelica Duran-Martinez"In general, these types of operations – in which security forces take out a cartel leader – lead to more violence."Feb 24, 2026

The Conversation

Daniel DePetris"It’s far too early to predict whether the CJNG will descend into civil war like its rival Sinaloa."Feb 24, 2026

Chicago Tribune

Janes"In the short term (one to six months), Mexican security forces will very likely actively target regional CJNG leaders, leading to an increase in clashes between OCGs and security forces in Nayarit, Jalisco, Zacatecas, Michoacán, and Guerrero states."May 06, 2026

Default

David Mora"In the absence of a direct succession, a power vacuum is created that opens the door to violent realignments within the organization."Feb 23, 2026

CBS

The Economist"Now it’s calm again ... but it’s like the sea: it looks calm, then the tsunami comes.”May 06, 2026

Economist

Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute"Violence between cartel members and against civilians will likely occur."Mar 11, 2026

Bisi

Anthony Placido"I would think that instead of these big public manifestations where they're burning vehicles and doing all kinds of stuff to protest against the government, they’re going to rapidly become involved in sort of inter-cartel violence and warfare."Feb 24, 2026

USA Today

Zach Jensen“If we see these rival factions emerge, like what happened with the Sinaloa cartel after El Chapo was taken down, then we’re probably going to see even more violence.”Mar 05, 2026

Fox5Vegas

Reuters"There will definitely be skirmishes between the various factions, and these spasms of violence could last for years."May 06, 2026

Reuters

ACLED"Past cases suggest leadership removals rarely reduce violence long term, and instead often trigger instability as factions compete for power."May 06, 2026

Express

Cecilia Farfán-Méndez“When high-value cartel leaders fall, historically violence spikes in the short term... we cannot rule out the possibility that violence could escalate.”Feb 26, 2026

Attorney Jeff

InSight Crime"Due to the size and reach of the CJNG, there is a high likelihood of fragmentation within the group and a fierce power struggle that could lead to increased violence in several parts of the country."Feb 24, 2026

InSight Crime

CIESAS“Without dismantling the power networks, yesterday’s victory will become the cause of new violence tomorrow.” Feb 26, 2026

Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera“We’ve seen this happen time and time again, from Guerrero to Sinaloa ... eventually, that leads to a civil war between different factions.”Feb 23, 2026

Al Jazeera