Controversy
Status:Open
Will the UK Economy Grow By 2% GDP In a Year Under Labour?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Keir Starmer"Certainly, yes [when pressed on whether he was seeking to achieve growth of 2.5 per cent]."Jul 03, 2024
Robert Colvile"Labour are promising to be the fastest-growing country in the G7. And our growth forecast is 2% or less every single year of this parliament? Yeah, good luck with that."May 18, 2025
Ben Riley-Smith"The OBR will drop the forecast for 2025/26 growth from 2% to around 1%."May 18, 2025
Office for Budget Responsibility"The economy is expected to grow by just over 1 per cent this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2025."Nov 29, 2024
Goldman Sachs"Our economists forecast the UK's GDP to increase 1.2% in 2025, which is slower than the Bank of England’s projection of 1.5%."Nov 27, 2024
Office for Budget Responsibility"GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 1.9 per cent in 2026."Apr 03, 2025
Naomi Smith"Closer ties with the EU could deliver growth of up to 2.2%. Clawing back up to half the damage caused by Brexit."May 18, 2025
UK Trade & Business CommissionResearch shows that "deep alignment with the EU on goods and services will deliver 2.2% economic growth to the UK."May 18, 2025
Sharon Graham"Today's #GDP growth figures are still a long way from @Keir_Starmer's target of 2.5% and it is far from clear that we are heading in the right direction."May 18, 2025
MetaculusWill the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?
CBI"GDP growth [is] anticipated to reach 1.9 - broadly in line with the average pre-COVID growth rate [of 2.0% between 2010-19]."May 01, 2025
Office for Budget Responsibility"We expect growth to accelerate to around 2.0 per cent in 2026 as interest rates decline and spare capacity in the economy is used up."Mar 06, 2024
Office for Budget Responsibility"In our central forecast, real GDP is now projected to grow by 1.0 per cent in 2025, half the 2.0 per cent assumed in October."Apr 03, 2025