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Will There Be a US-Iran War?

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Last Updated 6 months ago

Mohammed Ghaedi"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

Atlantic Council"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."Apr 15, 2024

Atlantic Council

Daniel Shapiro"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

Douglas London"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."Feb 15, 2024

Middle East Institute

Ray McGovern"Trump's threat vs Iran is mainly bluster."Jun 05, 2025

X

MetaculusWill the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Jean-Noel BarrotIn the absence of a new deal, "a military confrontation would appear to be almost inevitable."

Joe Biden"If Iran succeeds in significantly escalating its assault on Israel, the U.S. could be drawn in."

J Street"[T]he chances of a nuclear agreement or a war are both much higher in 2025 than they've been in a while."

Alexander Langlois"Trump has left the option of military strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites on the table should non-military efforts fail to curtail Tehran."Mar 10, 2025

Responsible Statecraft

Jim Lobe"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

Ray Takeyh"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."Jun 19, 2019

Council on Foreign Relations

Donald Trump"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."Mar 30, 2025

Reuters

SpecialEurasia"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."May 12, 2025

SpecialEurasia

Negar Mortazavi"The possibility of a US-Iran war is closer than ever."Jun 05, 2025

X

Abbas Araghchi"We believe that in the event of any attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Zionist regime, the U.S. government will also be involved and bear legal responsibility."May 22, 2025

The Hindu

Beto O Rourke"This [Trump] administration is gunning for war in Iran."

Kenneth Katzman"If they [Iranians] assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option."

Michael Rubin"Indeed, it appears Khamenei may want the United States to attack, calculating that he can rally Iranians around the flag to make up for his declining legitimacy."