Claims
JPMorgan"J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%."Aug 15, 2024
Callum Williams"[T]he global economy actually is not really in danger."
Joseph Little"The coming recession scenario [in late 2023 and 2024] will be more like the early 1990s recession."
IMF"Growth is expected to remain stable."
Robeco"Robeco's base case is for economic stalemate, with a mild recession in 2024."
Goldman Sachs"Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis."
Oxford Economics"[W]e expect the world economy will grow by 2.7% both this year and next."
Atradius"The global economy seems on track for a soft landing, as inflation is coming down while a recession can be avoided."
Morgan Stanley"The odds of... [a] recessionary 'hard landing'... have jumped to about 25%-30%."
Economist Intelligence UnitIf banks continue tightening, this will result in a rise in interest rates that could "eventually result in a global recession."
Shaktikanta DasA global recession "has not happened and is unlikely to happen [in FY 2024-25]."
Bill Conerly"Higher borrowing costs... will lead to recession [in 2024]."
The Vanguard Group"The [global] economy will experience a mild downturn as a result [of a restrictive monetary policy]."
Goldman SachsWe "reaffirm our 15% US recession probability."
World Bank"[T]he risk of a global recession has receded."
UNCTADGlobal economic growth will "slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with a recession."
S&P Global"We keep our probability of a [US] recession starting over the next 12 months unchanged at 25%."
© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.1
© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.1