NASA Rover Finds Gemstones on Mars
NASA's Curiosity Rover has discovered opals — gemstones formed by silica alteration by water — on the Red Planet's Gale Crater.
Arizona State University researchers noticed fracture halos — rings of light-toned rocks — by analyzing data and images beamed back by NASA's Curiosity Rover, which has been exploring the Crater since 2012. Further tests confirmed the opal-rich composition of these fracture halos.
According to a study published last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, the discovery of water-rich opals suggests the Crater — a 96-mile-wide impact basin with a layered mountain in the middle — is actually a dried-up lake bed.
Narrative A
As ice has already been found at the poles of Mars, the discovery that water was once within these immensely dry craters proves the planet was undoubtedly a much wetter place a long time ago. Water facilitates life on Earth, and if more of it is found in these crater basins, Mars might one day make for a habitable environment for human beings.
Narrative B
Though it's a possibility, the idea of finding life on Mars, let alone the ability of humans to live there one day, is a big stretch. Even if vast amounts of water and life are found in the planet's subsurface areas, it's because they are also shielded from the Sun's dangerous radiation — something surfaces above can't be protected from due to Mars' thin atmosphere.
Nerd narrative
There's a 12% chance that we will find life on Mars by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Over 17 Dead as Storms Continue to Batter California
An unprecedented wave of storms continues to wreak havoc in California, with floodwaters inundating neighborhoods and killing at least 17 people, as well as releasing sewage into flooded streets.
Five atmospheric rivers — long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles — have struck California in the last two weeks, causing record flooding and leaving five million people under flood watches.
Northern and Central California have taken the brunt of the storms, but cities like Los Angeles and San Diego now face the threat of flash flooding and mudslides as the system is moving south.
Narrative A
We are now at a point in the climate crisis where its devastating effects are not just theoretical but are manifesting before our eyes. California has gone from years of severe drought to mass flooding in a two-week span. This extreme change is not natural and exemplifies the kind of weather whiplash caused by climate change.
Narrative B
Climate change continues to be the establishment’s crutch whenever attempting to explain any natural phenomenon. Californian politicians and meteorologists seem more concerned with pushing climate propaganda than they are with helping people amid a natural disaster.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that, if a global catastrophe occurs before 2100, it will principally be caused by human-made climate change or geoengineering, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Afghanistan: Deadly Suicide Bombing Outside Foreign Ministry
A suspected suicide bombing on Wednesday outside the Foreign Ministry in the Afghan capital of Kabul reportedly killed numerous people and injured many more.
Ustad Fareedun, an official in the Ministry of Information under the Taliban government, said at least 20 people had been killed, while Kabul police chief spokesman Khalid Zadran put the official death toll at five.
The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) — the local offshoot of the Islamic State (IS) group — claimed responsibility for the suicide attack, which it said killed at least 20 people, including "several 'diplomatic' employees."
Pro-establishment narrative
The latest devastating bombing reminds the world that, despite claims to the contrary, the Taliban are incapable of providing security for the Afghan people. Meanwhile, the ISPK's terror campaign is rampant, and the IS offshoot is busy infiltrating Central, South, and West Asia. By continuing to suppress Afghan ethnic and religious minorities, the Taliban regime is playing into the hands of the ISKP, contributing to the surge of local terror.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's primarily the Afghan population that suffers from the terror of groups like ISKP. While the Taliban's inability to provide security is partially responsible, the suffering is further exacerbated by the withdrawal of Western NGOs and sanctions against Afghanistan — a policy of isolating the country that's counterproductive. The point isn't to recognize the Taliban regime but to develop a balanced Afghanistan policy.
Narrative C
With its terror campaign, the ISKP is also trying to keep foreign powers from bolstering ties with Kabul. The Chinese government, for example, may not officially recognize the Taliban, but Beijing maintains diplomatic relations with the country and plans to invest in Afghanistan's natural resources, making the Chinese a prime ISKP target.
New Classified Biden Docs Discovered; Special Counsel Appointed
US Pres. Biden is facing new political controversy after news broke that the White House Counsel's Office had found more government records from the Obama-Biden admin. at a second location — the garage of one of the president's homes in Delaware. Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed a Special Counsel, Robert Hur, to oversee an investigation.
According to Biden's lawyer, Richard Sauber, "All but one of these documents were found in storage space in the President’s Wilmington residence garage," adding that "one page was discovered among stored materials in an adjacent room." None were found in his Rehoboth Beach home.
Among the first batch of 10 documents were reportedly intelligence memos and other materials concerning Iran, Ukraine, and the UK. They were dated between 2013 and 2016 and mixed in with Biden family documents, including funeral arrangement details for the president’s late son, Beau.
Democratic narrative
There’s a big difference between the Trump and Biden cases. Trump violated the law by possessing classified papers and attempting to cover up his actions. The former president is facing a serious investigation because he knowingly held sensitive information and actively worked to keep it from the archives. Biden did neither of those things, thus GOP claims of Biden's hypocrisy are unfounded.
Republican narrative
The only important difference between the two cases is that Biden was vice president when he took the documents to his private office, and vice presidents don't have the same declassification powers as presidents. It will be interesting to see whether the DOJ sends teams to raid Biden's residences as they did with Trump, or if there continues to be a double standard.
Cynical narrative
Neither Trump nor Biden should have ever mishandled any classified information, and both should be investigated per the severity of their violations. However, the "overclassification" of US government documents has been raised for over a decade, and the bureaucracy of the federal government has produced an administrative nightmare. There must be accountability and reforms to a flawed classification system.
US, Japan Bolster Military Ties
The US and Japan announced on Wednesday a significant strengthening of their military relationship, which includes the formation of a US Marine unit on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa designed for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and the ability to fire anti-ship missiles.
Both Japan and the US reportedly perceive a greater military threat from China, North Korea, and Russia — especially in light of recent declarations of stronger ties between those three nations.
The US and Japan's partnership that calls on each side to come to the other's defense — codified in Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty — is deepened and is extending the scope of their cooperation across land, sea, air, and now into cyber- and outer-space.
Anti-China narrative
Japan, which holds the largest permanent contingent of US forces overseas, can no longer solely rely on US support — a fact that this latest plan acknowledges. The new strategy fortifies the US and Japan's vigor and will reshape their ability to promote peace and protect the Indo-Pacific region as China attempts to aggressively exert its influence.
Pro-China narrative
Japan is groundlessly discrediting China. By adopting this new policy, Japan is putting itself on a more offensive footing, and deviating from its commitment to China-Japan relations and the common understanding between the two countries. Hyping up the so-called "China threat" to find an excuse for its military build-up and alignment with the West is doomed to fail.
Nerd narrative
There is a 70% chance that Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
US House Passes 'Born Alive' Abortion Bill
The Republican-controlled US House on Wednesday voted 220-210 in favor of the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act.
The bill requires that healthcare providers attempt to save the life of an infant in the rare instance the baby is born alive during or after an abortion. Providers who don’t comply could face fines or prison.
One Democrat voted in favor of the bill, which isn't expected to survive a vote in the Democrat-controlled Senate. The bill also calls for a prohibition on the “intentional killing of a born-alive child,” which is already illegal under US law.
Democratic narrative
This bill is an unnecessary and burdensome answer to a fictitious situation, as it’s already illegal to kill a baby that survives an abortion. The decision to vote on it is the GOP's attempt to send a united message on their abortion stance as they try to keep a razor-thin majority together.
Republican narrative
While current legislation may prevent infants who survive an abortion from being killed, it doesn't include penalties for failing to provide proper care to the child. Those born after failed late-term abortions inarguably must be treated with the same respect and level of care afforded to every living person, and this legislation would go a long way in achieving this.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that elective abortion before the gestational age of 16 weeks will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Syrian Refugee Who Lived in Airport Becomes Canadian Citizen
Hassan Al Kontar — the now 41-year-old Syrian refugee who became stranded in Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur International Airport in 2018 for seven months and spent two months in a Malaysian detention center — was officially granted Canadian Citizenship on Wednesday.
With his Canadian passport, Kontar hopes to finally see his family again, whose escape from Syria to Egypt he managed to help arrange four months ago, and also travel the world to help other displaced refugees.
Kontar became a marketing insurance manager in the UAE in 2006, but his work permit expired in 2011, the same year that mass protests and civil war broke out in Syria. This led to him staying in the UAE illegally for six years, as the Syrian Embassy refused to renew his passport.
Establishment-critical narrative
Kontar's resettlement is just a drop in the bucket. The Syrian war is not over, and it continues to be a huge global crisis still affecting millions of lives. While the West has shifted its focus to the war in Ukraine, it must not wash its hands of Syrian refugees languishing in camps in Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, who are facing racism, discrimination, interrogations, and unwarranted jail terms for years.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though it's impossible to offer all displaced refugees a dignified life, this case shows that Western nations and institutions can make an important difference. Canada is currently among the few countries bearing a disproportionate amount of responsibility. Since a staggeringly high number of people need protection, Canada must adopt an even more uniform, fair, and sustainable refugee policy, and other nations can follow suit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance at least 186k refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 323: Kyiv 'Holding On' to Soledar in Donetsk, Ukrainian Minister Says
Ukraine's deputy defense minister Hanna Malyar said on Thursday that the country's forces are "holding on" to the Donetsk town of Soledar — contradicting earlier claims from Russia's Wagner mercenary group that it had taken control of the town.
The message was echoed by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his nightly address on Wednesday. "Now the terrorist state and its propagandists are trying to pretend [that they have achieved success in Soledar]," he said. However, "fighting continues" Zelenskyy stated.
Meanwhile on Thursday, the Wagner Group further claimed to have discovered the body of one of two Britons reported missing in Ukraine. Andrew Bagshaw, 48, and Chris Parry, 28, were last seen heading to Soledar before their families raised the alarm over their disappearance earlier in the week.
Pro-Russia narrative
After having taken Soledar, Russia can now use freed-up forces to achieve similar results in Bakhmut, which it will be able to attack from multiple directions. The success in Soledar also opens the door for further Russian advances in the wider Donetsk region.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia is spreading false news about the capture of Soledar in order to give its population positive news from an otherwise disastrous military campaign. Russia is also desperately trying to shore up support ahead of future mobilization drives.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia, Papua New Guinea Pledge New Security Pact
In a joint statement on Thursday, Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) pledged to execute a new security pact over the next four months that will include provisions aimed at combating climate change and protecting "independence, sovereignty, and resilience."
Marking the first address to PNG's Parliament by a foreign leader since its independence in 1975, Australian PM Anthony Albanese said the Bilateral Security Treaty would bolster the economic and security interests of both nations, with negotiations set to conclude in April and the treaty signed in June.
Referring to the issues of the region, PNG PM James Marape cited his nation's location at the center of "the Indo-Pacific confluence," adding that "in order for PNG to participate in a safer Indo-Pacific region, PNG herself must be stronger economically."
Establishment-critical narrative
As recently as last year, Papa New Guinea's prime minister had expressed his concerns over being caught in the middle of a conflict between China and the West. Though the Indo-Pacific nation has acknowledged the convenience of military relations with Australia given their close proximity, it's clear that, along with many other regional countries, it has no desire to provoke China the way the US and its major allies have been doing.
Pro-establishment narrative
As Australia and PNG are less than three miles from each other at their closest points, their relationship is unique. Due to this fact, it's important for Australia to continue to support its neighbors in a way that bolsters their growth and resilience. Though Albanese must be careful not to make PNG severely dependent on Australian aid, this pact is both an economic and military win for both countries in the face of China's growing Indo-Pacific footprint.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan Claims No Tie to Uranium in Package at UK Airport
Pakistan has rejected allegations in the British press that a package containing uranium, which arrived at London’s Heathrow airport in December, originated from the South Asian nation.
A discovery of metal bars embedded with uranium at Heathrow in late December triggered a counter-terrorism investigation. The probe focused on why the substance was concealed in an airplane shipment of scrap metal.
Scotland Yard has said that the amount of contaminated material was “extremely small” and posed “no threat to the public.”
Pro-establishment narrative
The shipment of uranium into Heathrow is worrying. Uranium is a dangerous substance that could have been used to make a dirty bomb. There are even concerns that the smuggling of the substance could have been part of a wider plot by state-backed Iranian terrorists to smuggle material into the country in order to target UK-based dissidents opposed to the regime in Tehran.
Establishment-critical narrative
Reports blaming Pakistan for the package containing uranium may unjustifiably damage the country's reputation. No information on the case has been officially shared with Pakistani authorities. A more efficient and detailed investigation can happen if relevant information is shared with the Pakistani side. The UK needs to involve Pakistani authorities before making unsubstantiated claims.