Bola Tinubu Wins Nigeria's Presidential Election
On Wednesday, Bola Tinubu, the candidate for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, was declared the winner of Nigeria's presidential election. Opposition parties have claimed the vote was rigged.
According to Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Tinubu — the former governor of Lagos state — won close to 8.8M votes (37%) against nearly 7M (29%) for the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and about 6.1M (25%) for the Labour Party's Peter Obi.
Narrative A
The electoral process in Nigeria has been marred by the incompetence of the INEC. Voters' and observers' trust in the process was eroded due to inadequate communication and lack of transparency about the cause of several failures on Saturday, which came amid widespread allegations of vote buying. There is enough evidence to affirm that the electoral body has been manipulating the entire process to benefit the ruling APC.
Narrative B
There are no legal or moral justifications for annulling this electoral process, only an anti-democratic desire among some — those who act as if they own Nigeria — to replicate the 1993 cancellation that tipped the country into chaos. It is strange that allegations of vote rigging emerged only when the APC had a strong lead, and not when Labor's Obi was declared the winner in Lagos in a subversion of the projected result.
Nerd narrative
There's an 11% chance that Nigeria will have a coup before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Denmark Scraps Public Holiday to Boost Defense Budget
On Tuesday, Denmark's parliament voted 95-68 to abolish "Great Prayer Day" — a springtime religious holiday observed since the 17th century — to boost military spending.
Canceling the public holiday would give the government an additional 3B Danish Crowns ($427M) to state coffers thanks to an extra 7.4 hours of labor per worker.
Establishment-critical narrative
Scrapping a holiday associated with important Danish traditions to increase productivity is unacceptable. It's unfair to make hardworking Danes cover the cost of corporation tax cuts and fill the coffers of high-net-worth individuals with their well-earned holiday. Moreover, the decision interferes with many young people's long-standing plans to attend Church of Denmark confirmation ceremonies around the Great Prayer Day.
Pro-establishment narrative
There is war in Europe, and as Denmark braces for uncertain geopolitical and economic times, the nation needs to strengthen its defenses. It is not only ordinary Danes paying for the challenging situation — the coalition is also advancing a plan to impose tax hikes on the upper class to boost finances so that the country can meet NATO's military spending target by 2030.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance that the Social Democrats will hold a position in government after the next Danish general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
López Obrador Says Tesla Will Build Plant in Mexico
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced Tuesday that car manufacturer Tesla will build a new factory in the northern city of Monterrey.
The development of the facility, to become Tesla's third factory outside of the US following plants in China and Germany, had raised concerns over the factory's water demands affecting the region.
Narrative A
The deal between Tesla and Mexico allows Elon Musk's company to utilize the lack of export tariffs to over 40 countries that production in the US cannot provide. Meanwhile, Tesla's venture into the Mexican manufacturing economy will generate further business and employment. This is a true win-win opportunity.
Narrative B
Mexico and Latin America as a whole have become overly fond of incoming foreign tech investment — believing a tech boom will naturally follow. In fact, Mexico simply expects Musk's venture to be a success rather than doing the hard work to make this a reality. While the opportunity may be too good to say no, such a move could actually be a hindrance to Mexico's longer-term development.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Tesla will report producing at least 3.93M vehicles in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 371: Putin Orders Strengthening of Ukraine Border After Drone Attacks
Russian Pres. Putin on Tuesday ordered officials to tighten control of the border with Ukraine after a number of drones penetrated Russian air defenses and exploded within Russian territory this week. Although Putin didn't refer to any specific attacks in his speech, it came hours after a drone fell near the village of Gubastovo, less than 60 miles (100 km) from Moscow.
According to the Guardian, the drone was a Ukrainian-made UJ-22 and had targeted a gas compression station belonging to the Russian energy giant Gazprom. The drone reportedly fell short of the facility, causing no damage, but the attack raised questions about how a drone was able to get so close to Moscow.
Pro-establishment narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup." This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that Russia will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Greece Train Collision Kills At Least 40
At least 40 people were killed after a passenger and cargo train collided head-on outside the town of Tempe in central Greece late on Tuesday.
Sixty-six of at least 85 injured people have been taken to hospitals in nearby Larissa, and about 250 passengers who received minor injuries were evacuated safely to Thessaloniki on buses.
Narrative A
Tuesday's accident, unfortunately, highlights Greece's worrying railway safety record, which has the highest overall railway fatality rate among the EU countries. Countless lives will continue to be lost if endemic problems of unsafe level crossings, poor infrastructure and traffic management systems, and understaffed companies aren't addressed.
Narrative B
Despite facing a plethora of problems, Greece's aging railway system is moving towards modernization. While the cause of Tuesday's crash has not been ascertained yet, Greek authorities are moving quickly in their investigation and search and rescue, which, for now, is rightly prioritizing victims and their families.
CDC Issues Alert for Drug-Resistant Stomach Bug
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it's tracking a rise in stomach illnesses caused by infections with "extensively drug-resistant" Shigella bacteria. Shigella is resistant to multiple antibiotics including azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, and ceftriaxone.
According to CDC data, there are about 450K shigellosis infections every year in the US, resulting in an estimated $93M in direct medical costs. The agency also reported that 5% of infections were "extensively drug-resistant" in 2022, up from zero cases in 2015.
Narrative A
Though developing countries with poor water quality will be hit hardest by an increase in Shigella cases, the virus itself is, in general, a relatively minor threat. Good hygiene, rest, and hydration are key. Scientists are also, albeit in the beginning stages, working on a vaccine to prevent infection in the first place.
Narrative B
Shigellosis does go away after some rest for most people, but a rise in drug-resistant cases should still alarm us. For immunocompromised patients — such as those with untreated HIV or who are undergoing chemotherapy — there are real risks of serious illness and hospitalization.
UK House Prices Fall at Fastest Rate in Over a Decade
Last month saw the biggest decline in UK house prices in more than a decade — falling 1.1% in February against the same month last year — according to an announcement from mortgage provider Nationwide on Wednesday.
It was the largest year-on-year drop since November 2012 and came as distinct data from the Bank of England (BoE) revealed British lenders had approved the smallest number of mortgages in January this year since 2009 — excluding a period at the start of the COVID lockdown.
Narrative A
While house prices are currently seeing historic dips as the waves of the catastrophic mini-budget under Liz Truss continue to dissipate, markets should not catastrophize over this data. Some economists have pointed out that the UK is on track to see inflation recede in the second half of 2023 — something that will see momentum and stability return to the economy.
Narrative B
The only question about the short to medium future of the housing market that needs answering is whether this is the beginning of a gradual deflation or whether the whole system — on which the UK economy is largely based — is about to burst. Even with a decline of just 12% the stability of this sector of the market could be compromised. Economists should not be feeling optimistic about these developments.
US Intelligence: Foreign Adversaries Unlikely to Blame for 'Havana Syndrome'
The findings of a multi-year investigation carried out by seven US intelligence agencies and released on Wednesday into the so-called Havana syndrome — a series of unexplained symptoms consistent with brain injury — cast doubt on longstanding suspicions that the hundreds of cases resulted from the actions of a foreign adversary.
Five of the agencies asserted that it was "very unlikely" that a foreign adversary was responsible for the symptoms, either purposely or incidentally, while another agency deemed it "unlikely." A seventh agency avoided commenting about a foreign actor.
Narrative A
Though the US intelligence community has departed from the years-long narrative that a foreign adversary was causing health incidents experienced by hundreds of government officials and their families, there's yet no explanation for those suffering after serving their country. Investigations into potential reasons must continue, especially because radio-frequency energy remains a possible cause.
Narrative B
It's disturbing that the US intelligence community has yet to entirely dismiss the absurd scientific hoax called Havana syndrome, allowing the government to approve compensation for the alleged victims despite the best explanation for these concussion-like symptoms being mass hysteria, possibly due to stress. Even UFO abductions are more credible than allegations sustaining this theory.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot Loses Re-Election Bid
Incumbent Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot lost her re-election bid on Tuesday, failing to make a top-two runoff in Chicago’s mayoral primary election. Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson will face off in the April runoff.
Lightfoot finished third in Tuesday’s election with roughly 17% of the vote. Vallas, the former CEO of Chicago Public Schools, and Chicago Teachers Union organizer Johnson finished with approximately 34% and 20% of the vote respectively.
Left narrative
Unfortunately, America still hasn’t overcome its racist, sexist, and homophobic beliefs, and Lori Lightfoot had to pay the price for it. As an openly LGBTQ and Black female, she faced an uphill battle of systemic inequality. Racially-charged dog whistles about crime were later used during the campaign, and Lightfoot was unable to overcome the bias against her.
Right narrative
Lori Lightfoot lost re-election because she’s been a terrible mayor. It’s that simple. Lightfoot may try to play the victim and blame her identity for losing, but the fact is that she is an abrasive figure who did nothing to tackle the crime ravaging Chicago and costing a massive loss of life. Chicago deserved better, and luckily, they will get better.
UK Lockdown Files: Ex-Health Minister's Leaked Messages Raise Questions on COVID Response
The Telegraph has released a report, dubbed the “Lockdown Files,” based on more than 100k of former UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock's WhatsApp messages — provided by the co-author of Hancock’s memoir, Isabel Oakeshott.
The files largely focus on Hancock and the UK’s handling of the COVID pandemic, raising questions about the government’s approach to regulations. Notably, the report says Hancock ignored expert advice on testing people entering nursing homes for COVID.
Narrative A
The Lockdown Files offer a damning report that confirms the worst fears of any lockdown skeptic — the UK government, and Hancock in particular, was far more concerned with scoring political points and looking as though it was doing something than following the science. That Hancock rejected expert advice and the government enacted policies that caused unnecessary and widespread suffering, such as blocking people from visiting dying relatives, with no clear basis is unforgivable.
Narrative B
While Matt Hancock’s leaked messages are a major news story, he shouldn't be the target of collective outrage. Like governments from all over the world, the UK made mistakes during an unprecedented time of crisis while navigating unchartered territories, and Hancock was at the forefront. More importantly, the so-called "Lockdown Files" only released a portion of the messages, arousing concern that the narrative has been manipulated to coincide with a rising anti-lockdown agenda.