Pro-establishment narrative

Coming on the heels of Congress' restrictions on former members of the intelligence community, and a US ban on Israel’s NSO Group — which created the powerful Pegasus spyware that spied on journalists and politicians — this order continues to make protecting the US and its allies from hackers a top priority. It’s important to establish guidelines for the currently unregulated use of spyware and sets a strong example for other countries.

Establishment-critical narrative

It has been a decade since Edward Snowden revealed that the US intelligence community spied on American citizens. An analysis of that leak found that 90% of the National Security Agency's data was collected on ordinary citizens, but the government still hasn't ended the initiative. Instead, the government has shifted attention away from its Orwellian tactics and made people think foreign actors using commercial spyware are the biggest threat.

Left narrative

How many school children and other innocent victims must die before better gun laws are passed? The U.S. has more guns than any other country - essentially one gun for every citizen - and one of the highest gun-related death rates. This madness needs to stop with better regulation, including limiting who has access and the types of weapons they own.

Right narrative

The problem isn't guns. It's the people behind the guns. The current gun regulations that are already in place aren't working, so why keep trying the same solution hoping for a different outcome? A different, better solution is needed rather than simply banning guns. Mental illness and inadequate security are the root of mass shootings and must be addressed. But the possibility of a real solution is overlooked by making the political discourse anti-gun.

Cynical narrative

Another day in the United States, another mass shooting. And just like all the previous tragic attacks, nothing will change. The violence will continue. Mass shootings have become a part of America's landscape, and neither side has enough political willpower to change that.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

The PRC has been using developing nations as pawns in its bid for influence against the US, exploiting poor countries under the guise of helping them. Currently the world's largest government creditor to such nations, Beijing now accounts for nearly half of these loans, which often come at high-interest rates. As the bill is coming due, China once again reveals its greed and the predatory nature of its so-called financial cooperation.

Pro-China narrative

The West has been spreading ill-founded narratives about China's alleged “debt trap diplomacy" for years — a myth that has three blatant problems China doesn't unilaterally dictate the BRI projects to other countries, its development financing is largely recipient-driven through bilateral interactions and deals, and it has never seized an asset because a country defaulted on a loan. The real debt trap has been carried out by the IMF and World Bank.

Pro-China narrative

While Tsai and her secessionist DPP are in collusion with anti-PRC forces and have brought Taiwan to the brink of war, Ma's visit reflects the policies of his presidency and sends an important signal of détente. Taipei needs to understand that the US-promoted path of confrontation to maintain its crumbling hegemonic status in the Indo-Pacific is a dead end for the Chinese people. Only dialogue and appreciation of shared cultural roots will ultimately lead to cross-strait peace.

Anti-China narrative

Ma's trip plays into the hands of the PRC regime, which has been working to reclaim Taiwan since the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan plays a key role in Beijing's hegemonic ambitions as a springboard for dominating the Asia-Pacific region and challenging the US. At least since Tsai Ing-wen became president, Beijing has been gearing up for war against Taiwan; Washington and the world community must not let Ma's naïve trip blind them to the need to prepare for the worst.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 58% chance that the Democratic Progressive Party will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

These polls show why DeSantis will be making the biggest political mistake of his career by challenging Trump, who leads DeSantis in all the major categories — even the ones the mainstream media said wouldn’t be attracted to the former president. Trump is the present and future of the Republican Party despite how much the establishment hates him.

Republican narrative

If DeSantis wins Iowa and contends tightly in New Hampshire, there would be a momentum shift that would permit voters to move away from Trump, who hasn’t changed since his 2020 defeat to Pres. Biden. DeSantis is strong in those states, so Trump shouldn’t count on an easy race. The entire GOP would likely enjoy a hard-fought close race between these two.

Democratic narrative

It looks like Republicans are stuck with Trump, despite his 2020 election loss and his inspiring the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, at the US Capitol. DeSantis was supposed to be the heir apparent, but instead, he can’t break through Trump’s hold on the grassroots of the party. This is 2016 all over again. Despite the success DeSantis has had in pushing Orbanist-like policies in Florida, the Democrats will likely still face Trump's GOP come 2024.

Narrative D

Alarmingly, the real winner of the Republican primary looks to be Vladimir Putin. Both Trump and DeSantis have made it clear that if they become president, Ukraine's support from the US would be in danger. This domestic debate could have global consequences, and if the war is still going on in 2024, Ukraine's fate could effectively be decided on the ballot next year.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that prediction markets will say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for president on Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

Western tanks — even many of the older models — have a great track record of defeating the Soviet-era armored vehicles that Russia keeps sending into battle. The delivery of British and German tanks, along with the arrival of US Abrams tanks set to take place soon, could provide Kyiv with a formidable and invaluable asset in the ongoing fight against invading Russian forces.

Pro-Russia narrative

The delivery of western-made tanks to Ukraine risks backfiring against the country's allies. Russian forces in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) are currently waiting for the vehicles to appear on the battlefield so that they can capture and study them, thereby improving Russia's ability to fight the tanks more effectively in the future. This move will give Russia's military great insight into the technology being used by NATO and go a long way to aiding Moscow's military intelligence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that there will be more than four deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The president shouldn't have a blank check when it comes to going to war. There have been many lessons from the Iraq war that have still gone unheeded, and if the authorizations are not repealed, the US is destined to make the same mistakes it made in the past. The American people must have a say in decisions that have such a crucial impact on their lives, bank accounts, and the country as a whole.

Republican narrative

Though it seems that almost everyone now understands that US policy toward Iraq was a mistake, Republicans should make sure to include legislation that will lead to an investigation of the current admin.'s failures abroad, namely, the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. It should also include oversight regarding billions of dollars worth of military aid going to Ukraine.

Left narrative

Though they finalized a migration deal in December, the soon-ending Title 42 policy has still left America's southern neighbor overwhelmed by migrants headed through Mexico to the US. Facing pressure from both the Biden admin. and his own citizens to tighten immigration policies, López Obrador still can't get a handle on the situation. The once pro-immigrant politician is in a tight spot, and calls from North American conservatives to take harsher measures aren't helping.

Right narrative

In contrast to the Trump admin., which actually deterred illegal immigrants from even trying to reach the US, Biden's migration agreement with Mexico has done very little to mitigate the border crisis. These migrants obviously know that a few deportations here and there won't stop them from reaching America once Title 42 is over, so incidents like this — which is just one symptom of the border crisis — will only continue until lawmakers finally show, though concrete legislation, that people can't simply walk through Mexico into the US.

Republican narrative

The current attacks on girls' and women's rights in Afghanistan are a direct result of the Biden administration's disastrous decision to withdraw from the country. His administration may pontificate about women's rights, but it has no way of enforcing them without troops on the ground.

Democratic narrative

While US involvement in Afghanistan saw significant gains for women's rights, the fact that Afghan security forces collapsed so quickly following its withdrawal indicates that the yields weren't sustainable without an indefinite US presence, which itself wasn't sustainable or realistic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that the US will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The ever-expanding Sam Bankman-Fried saga represents the ugliness of America's corporate-government. The man who seemingly bought off American politicians has now been found to have potentially bought influence within the PRC government. Though he's currently sitting comfortably in his parents' Palo Alto, California home on a $250M bond, maybe these corrupt leaders will actually punish their former friend.

Narrative B

According to the US government's account, Bankman-Fried's corruption was baked into FTX's processes from the very start of its operation. Whether he was dishonest, deluded, or both, the government needs to conduct the most thorough investigation and prosecution of this fallen crypto tycoon.