UK Military Record on Civilians Killed in Iraq, Syria Questioned
New questions have emerged regarding an admission made by the UK in May 2018 that its military had killed one civilian in eastern Syria two months earlier — the only civilian casualty they have acknowledged. Then defense secretary Gavin Williamson told parliament that the strike was not logged in the records of civilian casualties kept by its allies in the international coalition.
A investigation by the Guardian newspaper identified six strikes in the Iraqi city of Mosul that killed civilians and appear to have been carried out by British forces, suggesting discrepancies in the government's account and consequently raising concerns about how the UK records civilian casualties.
Establishment-critical narrative
British bombing in Iraq and Syria in the fight against IS resulted in more than 4K munitions in the two countries — it seems incredibly unlikely that not a single civilian was killed during said campaign. Besides the deaths that were uncovered in the Guardian's investigation, there were almost certainly more victims for whom the UK's military failed to properly account. Justice and accountability for their deaths must be pursued.
Pro-establishment narrative
This investigation reinforces that the UK's armed forces must comply with the highest possible operational standards. However, regardless of debate over the particulars, one must keep in mind that the fight against IS was absolutely necessary, and that UK forces did everything in their power to reduce civilian casualties. Going forward, the UK is always trying to improve its tactics.
Zelenskyy Travels to Poland Amid Farmers' Dispute on Ukrainian Grain
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Poland on Wednesday amid a dispute among local farmers who say the lifting of tariffs on Ukrainian grain has flooded the local market, driving down the prices of Polish equivalents. Neighboring Poland has typically been one of Ukraine's staunchest backers since the war began, however, Polish farmers threatened to "spoil" Zelenskyy's visit as anger over the issue mounted.
As Zelenskyy made his way to Warsaw, Polish agriculture minister Henryk Kowalczyk resigned from his post, citing the European Commission's decision to extend duty-free imports of Ukrainian grain until June 2024. "As it is clear that this demand [to introduce tariffs] will not be met by the European Commission at this point, I decided to resign from the post of agriculture minister," he said.
Pro-establishment narrative
Poland has been one of Ukraine's biggest backers since Russia invaded, and Zelenskyy's trip is a show of gratitude to the country — particularly as it has taken in the lion's share of Ukrainian refugees. More than 1.5M Ukrainians have registered with the Polish government since the war began, and this relationship between close-knit allies should not be overshadowed by a minor trade dispute.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite Poland's support for Ukraine, Polish farmers are right to be angry over Zelenskyy's visit. The policies allowing Ukrainian grain to be sent to Poland without tariffs have left local farmers to bear the brunt of the financial burden and are making their livelihoods unsustainable.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join the European Union before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israeli Police Again Clash with Palestinians at Al-Aqsa Mosque
Israeli police again raided Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque late Wednesday night — the second such raid in 24 hours — after the first led to Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip firing at least nine rockets into Israel. Israel responded with air strikes that hit what it said were weapon production sites controlled by Hamas, the Islamist armed group and political party that governs the embargoed area.
Israeli police said that they arrested 350 people during the first raid after what they called "agitators" — carrying fireworks, sticks, and stones — barricaded themselves inside the mosque. Palestinians at the scene said that stun grenades and rubber bullets were used to clear out the group, and that 14 people were injured.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Every year, Israeli forces brutalize Palestinian worshippers while the world and international media either turn a blind eye or pretend as if the conflict has "two sides." Without cause, Israeli police assaulted worshippers, leading to a dangerous escalation. Indeed, the occupation's cruelty has no bounds, even during the holy month of Ramadan. Emboldened by international passivity after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other calendar year since the Second Intifada, the occupation is becoming even more brutal.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though the Palestinians and their enablers will cry foul when Israeli police try to maintain order, the reality is that Wednesday's confrontation was a result of Palestinian agitators turning a holy site into a war zone. Even though the Temple Mount is the holiest place in Judaism, Israel maintains the status quo, as it has no interest in provoking the situation in the West Bank or Gaza. While the media focuses on Jerusalem, terrorists in Gaza committed the real crime by firing rockets at Israeli civilians.
Nerd narrative
There's a 49% chance that there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India: Twitter Accused of Censoring Modi's Critics
Twitter has been accused of cooperating in censorship with India's PM Narendra Modi's government as it agreed to block more than 120 accounts on the behest of the state in the aftermath of the search for a fugitive Sikh separatist leader.
This comes after 27M people across Punjab were left without mobile internet access between March 18-21 as part of a government hunt for Amritpal Singh Sandhu, allegedly to hinder the spread of misinformation at the time.
Narrative A
While Musk argues that he supports free speech, he doesn't mean all free speech. In reality, his support is conditioned on a country's law, meaning that when an oppressive, censorial government — such as Modi's — can legally suppress freedom of expression, Musk and Twitter are happy to comply. Musk's desire for free speech only extends to his ability to get away with saying what he wants rather than standing up to authoritarian regimes.
Narrative B
It's ironic that Western mainstream media is claiming that Musk's Twitter has colluded with Modi's government to silence the opposition just weeks after it was exposed that some 40K accounts belonging to real people, primarily Americans who had never been to India and who were not Hindu, were targeted in 2021 by a US-funded disinformation lab for allegedly supporting Hindu nationalism. It seems the media only cries censorship when trying to find fault with a non-Western country.
J&J Unit Files For Bankruptcy to Pursue $8.9B Talc Settlement
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) has agreed to pay $8.9B, far larger than its original offer of $2B, to settle tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that talc in its famous baby powder product caused cancer.
J&J had its subsidiary, LTL Management, file for bankruptcy to cover the settlement for a second time Tuesday and has commitments from 60k claimants to support the move. Previously, an appeals court said in January that LTL couldn't file for bankruptcy because it wasn’t in financial distress.
Establishment-critical narrative
Big Pharma continues to get away with murder, while the FDA allows companies to conduct their own clinical trials free from proper oversight. When they inevitably create toxic products, the companies get slapped with an easy-to-pay fine, while no executives go to jail or even pay individual penalties. Unless there’s a crackdown, this cycle will continue.
Pro-establishment narrative
J&J, which isn't at fault, continues to be committed to producing the safest and most effective products. It only agreed to the settlement to avoid wasting time and money in a drawn-out court battle that would’ve resulted in nothing for the plaintiffs. Now J&J can return to the business of protecting people's health.
Scotland: Ex-Prime Minister Sturgeon's Husband Arrested
On Wednesday, Peter Murrell, the 58-year-old husband of former Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was taken into custody in connection with an investigation into the funding and finances of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP).
According to reports, detectives are questioning the former Chief Executive Officer of the SNP about the £600K (~$794K) raised by Scottish Independence campaigners in 2017 that allegedly disappeared from the party's accounts. The police are also investigating Murrell for failing to declare a personal loan of more than £100K (~$125K) he gave to the party after the last election.
Narrative A
The SNP is deeply riven by ideological and political disputes. Its membership has fallen by 30% over the last year. Peter Murrell's arrest is likely to have a far-reaching effect on the party. These may include denting Sturgeon's successor's attempts to rebuild the party's support base, rebuilding finances, and facing stiff competition from Labour — who are now winning support from pro-UK and pro-independence voters.
Narrative B
The SNP's finances were the reason for Sturgeon's resignation — not the "physical and mental impact" of dealing with COVID. It is clear Murrell's impending arrest would’ve been awkward for her if she were still in office. Whether or not she was involved in the mishandling of funds is yet to be known, but the power couple has much to explain.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Democrat-Backed Protasiewicz Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
Democrat-backed Milwaukee County Circuit judge Janet Protasiewicz Tuesday defeated Republican-supported former Justice Dan Kelly for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, shifting the majority control of the court to liberals for the first time in 15 years.
With 75% of the ballots counted, Protasiewicz had 55.4% of the vote to Kelly's 44.6% – a lead of approximately 160K votes.
Democratic narrative
This election has saved Wisconsin from the clutches of election-denying Republicans who pose a risk to democracy. Now, an unpopular abortion ban and a rigged voting map can be rescinded, and other progressive goals can be accomplished for the betterment of the state and the country.
Republican narrative
This wasn’t a victory for democracy; it was a win for a judge who was backed heavily by radical-left billionaire George Soros and other out-of-state financiers. They seemingly won’t rest until they’ve spread their dangerous soft-on-crime agenda across the country.
Australian Mayor Readies Defamation Suit Over ChatGPT
Mayor of Hepburn Shire, Australia, Brian Hood, said he may sue OpenAI, owner of the artificial intelligence (AI) ChatGPT, amid reports that the chatbot has made false claims that he served time in prison for bribery.
ChatGPT has reportedly said that Hood went to prison in connection with a foreign bribery scandal involving a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Note Printing Australia, in the early 2000s. His lawyers said he did work there but that he was the one who notified authorities of the scheme.
Narrative A
While the slandering of Hood's reputation is troublesome, it will be very difficult to prove an AI algorithm is at fault for disseminating defamatory information. To defame someone — legally speaking — the perpetrator must have knowingly disseminated the falsities with malice, but how could a computer do that? Such cases involving public figures will lead to ever-growing debate on the issue of AI and its role in public discourse, but to sue a robot isn't a winnable course of action.
Narrative B
The case against OpenAI has nothing to do with the algorithm and everything to do with the company's delayed response to Hood's request. Once Hood proved the information to be false, OpenAI should have scraped it off the platform immediately, but, according to the lawyers, it hasn't done that and therefore has opened itself up to a legitimate allegation of defamation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 by April 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Flies Nuclear-Capable Bombers as Tensions Soar with N. Korea
The US on Wednesday flew nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the Korean Peninsula for the first time in a month as it tried to send a message to North Korea amid mounting concerns about Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities.
South Korea's defense ministry stated that the US long-range bombers took part in joint aerial drills with US and South Korean fighter jets intended to show the "strong resolve" of their alliance as well as its readiness.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US and its war-mongering allies continue to provoke North Korea by performing acts of intimidation and simulating war on a grand scale. Western media lies and calls these military operations defensive, but in reality, the US and its puppet states are loading the Korean peninsula with weapons of war and rehearsing their attack on the North. The North does not want war, but this provocation cannot persist.
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea is unleashing its largest propaganda campaign in years as it threatens the US and its allies. The country’s state media is doing all it can to recruit young men to join its military as it works to bolster its nuclear arsenal. War-time rhetoric is emanating from the North, and the US must focus on deterring an attack.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Vatican: China Unilaterally Appointed Bishop to Shanghai Despite Pact
The Vatican on Tuesday claimed that Chinese authorities have unilaterally appointed a new bishop to Shanghai, the largest Roman Catholic diocese in China, apparently violating their bilateral, secret deal on the appointment of bishops.
The Holy See's Press Office director, Matteo Bruni, reported that the Roman Catholic Church learned from the media that Bishop Shen Bin was transferred from Haimen to Shanghai.
Anti-China narrative
Though Pope Francis is well aware of human rights abuses committed by Beijing that could amount even to crimes against humanity, he has chosen to turn a blind eye based on wishful thinking that the Vatican-China deal would provide the Holy See better access to Catholics in China. It has become crystal clear that Beijing simply does not follow this agreement, and the Vatican must change course and make this deal public and ensure that China respects freedom of religion.
Pro-China narrative
Though it's tempting to reduce decades of a sensitive relationship between China and the Vatican to a simple conflict between good and evil to either attack Pope Francis or Beijing, one can only negatively affect the future and religious liberty of Catholics in China by doing so. The Holy See knows that the 2018 deal is not perfect and could indeed prove ineffective if not accompanied by a deep commitment by both sides. However, this agreement — especially the PRC's involvement — is nevertheless a necessary step to improve the situation of Chinese Catholics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China will score at least 5.60 on the Human Freedom Index in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.