Democratic narrative

The revelations of this ProPublica report are truly shocking. Thomas's lifestyle was being subsidized by Crow with luxury trips that ordinary Americans can barely conceive of. Thomas has significantly corroded public trust by not disclosing these trips, as required by law. Democrats must act to restore this trust and ensure that this type of major ethical transgression doesn't happen again.

Republican narrative

Thomas made a mistake by not reporting the trips he was taking with his long-time family friend, but it's not the major sin that the Left is making it out to be. It was simply a mistake. Thomas can amend his financial reports and we can all move on. The purpose of the financial disclosure law is to inform the public about possible conflicts of interest — in this case, there are no conflicts of interest, as there have not been any cases before the Supreme Court by Crow or his firm since Thomas joined.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that there will be fewer than six conservative justices in SCOTUS on Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The leaked documents overestimate Ukrainian losses while underestimating those of Russia. This indicates that they were likely manipulated by the Kremlin before their release in order to help propagate the Kremlin's disinformation aims.

Establishment-critical narrative

If the documents were even partially faked, they would not be fooling anyone at the US Dept. of Defense, which is the owner of the original files. Other possibilities include that the files were in fact released by the US to misdirect Russia ahead of Ukraine's coming counteroffensive or that the documents are 100% authentic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that there will be more than four deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Though, of course, violence and rocket fire are always terrible, the source of conflict has always been Israel's brutal occupation, which strips Palestinians of their rights, treats them like second-class citizens, and has created a large number of refugees in neighboring countries. As Israeli police brutalize Palestinian worshippers in Al-Aqsa, Israel, as the occupying power, is solely responsible for any retaliation undertaken by Palestinians.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has continually made its desire to live in peace clear to both the Palestinians and their regional enablers, and the blame for Thursday's escalation sits squarely on Hamas and possibly Iran as well, which supports terrorists throughout the region, such as Hezbollah. Israel has no interest in another Lebanon war, as that would only aggravate the already tense situation in the region. However, it will not stand by and allow terrorists to freely target Israeli civilians.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Regional stakeholders such as ASEAN and China have sought to smooth things over to ensure peace and stability in Myanmar, but Western support for armed resistance and political extremist action have bolstered pro-National Unity Government (NUG) militants to descend the country into civil war. Myanmar is in chaos, and the NUG's calls for revolution will only make it worse.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UN and ASEAN have tried and failed to change the military junta's bloodthirsty behavior that has caused thousands of deaths and atrocious crimes against humanity since its disastrous coup in February 2021. Since there will be no sustainable peace while this illegitimate, corrupt regime remains in power, it is time for the US and its allies to unequivocally support the popular resistance movement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 167K refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

French citizens have to embrace pension reforms. With longer life expectancies and an aging population, the cost to the state's coffers has become unsustainable. France needs to get with the times and raise the pension age like all other European countries have done.

Left narrative

Despite those that say the numbers are unsustainable, the deficit for future years is not as dramatic as Macron and his supporters make it out to be. Besides, there are other ways of raising the necessary money outside of raising the pension age — including reversing the tax cuts for businesses that Macron's government itself has implemented.

Republican narrative

For anyone paying attention, this report is clearly a political stunt aimed at diverting blame away from those responsible. The Biden admin. handed it out to reporters just ten minutes before John Kirby's press conference, which is a classic PR move to ensure those who want to ask questions have no time to review the material at hand. Biden was in charge of this withdrawal and had every intelligence and military tool at his disposal, but he choked, and now he's playing blame games instead of taking responsibility for the 13 Americans who died under his watch.

Democratic narrative

Any dutiful outgoing administration would have worked tirelessly to help prepare the incoming president for such an important military operation, but Trump failed to do that. He made America look weak by inviting the Taliban to Camp David on the 18th anniversary of 9/11 and then telling them when the withdrawal would take place. Yes, the Biden admin. should have anticipated the collapse and evacuated troops sooner, but its choices were constrained by conditions created by his predecessor.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that the United States will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The Supreme Court rightfully voted to allow a year-old girl to continue playing the sport she loves with the teammates she's used to competing with. At a time when transgender rights are under attack all across the nation, this is a well-deserved legal win for a marginalized community fighting for its right to exist. Hopefully, this can be a springboard for court battles in the future.

Right narrative

The misogynistic "trans rights movement" has used confused young girls as cannon fodder in their push for political power. The activists who claim to be liberal have insulted iconic female figures who simply wish to protect future generations from having their athletic competitions overrun by men. This sets female athletes up for lifelong competition with biological boys and men who will undoubtedly outperform them due to physical differences.

Pro-Trump narrative

While Ron DeSantis may be the darling of a political establishment determined to beat Donald Trump at all costs, he is not the choice of the American people. Former Pres. Trump is surging in the polls following the politically motivated indictment by New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and the Republican electorate knows that Trump is their voice. They also know the mainstream media, on both sides, holds no weight with everyday Americans.

Republican narrative

It is time for a new direction, and Ron DeSantis is the best choice to carry the mantle as the GOP’s leader. Whether you like or dislike Donald Trump, there is no denying that he is a volatile figure whose presence drains Americans. DeSantis is a consistent, stable figure who can represent the Republican electorate without making everything about him. Either way, Trump vs. DeSantis makes for a dynamic GOP primary season.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While job openings were slightly down in March compared to previous months, and just a few thousand off of what economists predicted, the US economy is still going strong. The numbers are solid and indicate the moves by the Fed over the past year to curb inflation without setting off a recession are working. As lead economist at Glassdoor, Daniel Zhao, told The Associated Press, the numbers from March make up a "Goldilocks report."

Establishment-critical narrative

The US economy is likely headed for a recession, and it may be too late for the Fed to do anything about it. The labor market is weak, financial institutions are failing, and inflation isn't going anywhere. Banks keep talking about a soft landing, but the reality is the US is about to get hit with the opposite a very hard landing. And the Fed's policies are squarely to blame.

Narrative C

For the average American, the reality of recent economic policies is dire. Seven in 10 say they think the economy is in poor shape and half of them say their own personal financial situation is worse now than it was a year ago. Whether jobs are up or down by a few thousand doesn't change the overall reality for those living it day to day.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the real GDP growth in the US will be at least 0.97% in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Tesla's vehicles are a rolling privacy nightmare, which is why this latest report is unsurprising, albeit incredibly unnerving. The car manufacturer needs to be more forthcoming about its privacy practices, and those responsible for this unacceptable breach must be held to account. It's time that the government implements more concrete privacy laws.

Narrative B

While these allegations should be investigated, at this point, they are just that allegations. Tesla has been transparent about its privacy practices and has done its due diligence by implementing safeguards to protect customers' data — which the car owners have complete control of.

Cynical narrative

The issue of privacy isn't unique to Tesla. As the world becomes increasingly automated by artificial intelligence, we become progressively reliant on someone else to protect our data and privacy. The uncomfortable reality is that this is an impossible task, and we should expect more "scandals" like this. But that's the price of convenience, and most seem all too keen to pay it.