Establishment-critical narrative

Israel has been conducting airstrikes against suspected Iranian weapons transfers and personnel and its proxies in Syria for almost a decade. Though the strikes are part of a low-intensity conflict to slow Iran's growing entrenchment in Syria, the West has seemingly dropped its previous plan of diplomacy to allow Israel and other allies to use military force instead to settle its grievances with Tehran. This risky strategy underestimates the magnitude and repercussions of a military escalation.

Pro-establishment narrative

Syria is a conflict zone with many actors, all of which can cause this "shadow war" to go hot. Meanwhile, Iran — with its coordinated effort with Russia, which controls much of the Syrian airspace — risks pushing it over the edge. Israel has been clear that it will not permit Iran to freely move weapons and fighters through Syria if such activities threaten Israeli security, and it's justified to target Iranian assets in any of the countries into which Tehran has dug its tentacles.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US will give at least $2.97B in aid to Israel in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This strike is bigger than just the TV and movie industry, as it's brought people together from all walks of the entertainment world. While movie and TV strikers are mostly showing up in front of the major production studios, the SAG-AFTRA has specifically also barred its members from attending San Diego's Comic-Con event. Writers and actors keep the entirety of Hollywood running smoothly — from blockbuster films to promoting smaller comics — and this strike proves that.

Narrative B

These writers may have picked a fight they cannot win. The streaming boom is over, and the once cash-flush platforms are feeling the pinch. Platforms are in no rush to spend money or greenlight another prestige show as investors bear down on them to turn a profit. Everyone in the industry is grappling with this slowdown, and writers shouldn't receive special treatment.

Narrative C

While the WGA/SAG strike is a historic moment for the industry and must continue, they should be cautious not to let certain high-profile actors turn it into a political stunt. Actress Susan Sarandon, for example, has a history of staining the industry through her controversial politics. If actors like her are able to hijack the movement, it will allow the industry to paint it as a wacky group of grifters using the hard work of writers to push their own agenda.

Democratic narrative

The legal charges against the fake electors are measured and airtight, and go to show that attempts to interfere with the democratic process will not be taken lightly. All of those charged were fully aware that they were doing something illegal, and the charges now open the door for indictments in other states. The charges targeting the "small fish" will clear the way for charges against high-level Trump allies or even the former president himself. The legal blowback from Trump's scheme is only just beginning.

Pro-Trump narrative

No one can talk about conspiracies involving the 2020 election without talking about the real attempts to undermine the Trump campaign through media and political interference. Collusion between social media platforms and the intelligence community buried the damning Hunter Biden laptop story and impeded investigations, potentially swinging the election. Democrat-led plots had a real impact on the outcome of the election.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance a state will officially submit results to the Electoral College that are different from the projected winner of that state in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Arresting Putin would jeopardize South Africa's decades-long relationship with Russia and this would, in turn, threaten South Africa's peace, security, and prosperity. Arresting a head of state who ought to enjoy diplomatic immunity is both irresponsible and reckless.

Pro-establishment narrative

The arguments put forward by Cyril Ramaphosa are both farcical and inconsistent. He argues that South Africa ought to respect the sovereignty of Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is ignoring the sovereignty of Ukraine by waging an illegal invasion.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Despite the Biden administration’s best efforts alongside some policy successes, poor opinion polling will not budge. Thanks to the likes of inflation, stubbornly high prices, family drama, and age, the current President’s polling continues to look historically dismal.

Democratic narrative

Pres. Biden has a track record of beating Trump — which is vital for the future of America post-2024. Interpreting opinion polling is both tricky and often futile — however, the combination of Bidenomics and his record head-to-head against Trump bodes well for the current president.

Nerd narrative

There is a 53% chance that Joe Biden will win the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While current copyright laws may not cover this novel phenomenon, these billion-dollar AI companies still have a moral duty to share any profits that are made off the backs of hardworking artists. Writers, authors, and musicians are facing a dire economic outlook as their industries are rapidly outpaced by technological innovation. Creative professions will always be paramount to a strong society, and it's up to the tech giants in charge to even the playing field.

Narrative B

The question surrounding AI development with copyrighted material is more complicated than it seems. While companies can't make blanket fair use claims for any and all copyrighted work, they certainly can make a case if their AI training is for nonprofit or educational purposes. Courts can also, as has happened in the past, rule in favor of AI companies if their goal is not to reproduce copyrighted work for consumption but rather turn it into something new. Future court cases will have to determine the legal framework of this issue.

Democratic narrative

Not only does Congress have the authority to regulate Supreme Court ethics, but it also must ensure that justice is not perverted by a rogue court whose justices have a clear proclivity for corruption. Multiple reports have revealed a long list of gifts and accommodations given to conservative justices by right-wing billionaires, yet there's no rule demanding the justices disclose these potential conflicts of interest. SCOTUS' integrity is at an all-time low as radical conservatives erode the rights of women and people of color, which is why we need this law.

Republican narrative

Democrats have been trying to delegitimize SCOTUS ever since Donald Trump nominated his first justice, and the liberal establishment even incited abuse and attacks on justices and their families. The corporate media has been trying to gin up controversy about conservative justices going on trips with wealthy friends to sway public opinion and allow their leftist friends to impose new laws to diminish the court’s power. This is a political game, and Democrats are desperate for revenge against a court that dares to rule against the left’s woke social agenda.

Nerd narrative

There is a 28% chance that there will be fewer than six conservative SCOTUS justices on Jan. 20 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

While US Attorney Weiss was told he could pursue his case outside of Delaware, what Democrats won't tell you is that the offer came under the condition that he bring other Biden-appointed attorneys to help him lead the investigation — in other words, he was going to have establishment hacks babysit him to make sure he didn't get too close to the truth. The DOJ is rotten to its core and needs new fire alarm mechanisms.

Democratic narrative

This latest hearing didn't reveal anything new As has been the case since this sham began, the whistleblowers made outlandish accusations without providing a shred of evidence. What this case did achieve, however, was proving that the DOJ is actually an example of how an independent justice system is supposed to work. Biden neither removed any of the Trump-appointed prosecutors who were investigating him nor did his son get away with his crimes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted before November 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

There's good reason to be hopeful about the future of AI, and a better world is within our reach with careful management of the technology. By focusing less on apocalyptic predictions and more on tangible harms and benefits, we can fully unleash the power of AI to tackle some of our most serious problems in the scientific and human realms. We must remain level-headed and work to ensure AI is used for good.

Narrative B

Anyone who is blasé about the risk AI poses to humanity hasn't been paying close enough attention. AI has been developing at a breakneck pace and could outsmart humanity before too long. It's imperative that we take the existential risk that AI poses seriously, as an arms race between developers could see everything from fake news to cybercrime explode thanks to the sophisticated tech. We cannot afford to be reckless in this endeavor.

Techno-skeptic narrative

The doomsayers and the optimists are two sides of the same coin, feeding into the unfounded hype around AI systems that has been uncritically reported by the media. The technology behind AI isn't fundamentally new, and humans are wrongly ascribing human traits to clever programs, easily duping us. AI will not be the end of the world, and it won't be a gold rush for anyone but those who get the public to buy into the hype.

Pro-establishment narrative

The IMF is doing all it can to help Pakistan out of its dire economic situation, and it's now up to the Pakistani government to abide by the lender’s guidelines to help the country’s economy and human rights situation. The IMF has rigorously studied Pakistan’s holistic outlook and is implementing the necessary policies that will allow a bailout deal to have long-standing impacts. The IMF’s aid to Pakistan is humanitarian as well as economic.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the IMF may act like it is helping Pakistan through its economic hardships, the lender is actually treating Pakistan like a subservient colony that can't act in its own national interests. Of course, Pakistan greatly benefits from the money it can use to pay off some of its debt, but an international loan is not an excuse to hold a nation of over 200 million people hostage. The IMF should want to help Pakistan without trying to hegemonically control every facet of its economy.

Narrative A

Despite warnings that Netflix's push to stop password sharing would result in mass cancellations, the company showed a bigger-than-expected growth for Q2. It added almost 6M paying subscribers, which is quite a remarkable turnaround.

Narrative B

Netflix's continuous effort to stop password sharing could potentially hurt its competitive edge in various markets. In India, for example, Netflix faces stiff competition from JioCinema, which streams numerous popular shows and movies from NBC, HBO, and Warner Bros. It has yet to be seen if the password-sharing crackdown will ultimately be bad for business.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that an original, wholly AI-generated feature film will rank #1 on popular streaming services by January 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While freedom of expression is sacred, it must be balanced against the destruction of public peace caused by burning religious texts. Regardless of religion or intention, Swedish authorities must make the right decision and end the diplomatic chaos caused by their acceptance of controversial behavior.

Narrative B

The overwhelming majority of Swedes are not against banning the burning of religious texts such as the Quran; however, the reality remains clear that multiculturalism has failed in Sweden. The issue is not a lack of understanding of Swedish culture, but an apparent refusal to conform and cooperate with the country's way of life. The sooner the government accepts this reality and reacts accordingly, the better.

Narrative C

Burning the Quran may not be morally correct, but that doesn’t mean it should be banned. Sweden, and all free societies, must protect the ability to express even contemptible ideas and actions. Burning religious texts should be both protected by the government and denounced by citizens for the sake of free speech and civil society.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

The warm reception China has given Kissinger is a reminder that China is willing to engage with anyone engaging with the PRC in good faith. Kissinger played an indispensable role in China-US relations, and his presence will always be welcomed in China. The US must engage with China based on principles of respect and mutual recognition, which it has thus far failed to do. Kissinger has long been a champion of the "one China" policy.

Anti-China narrative

China reaching out to Kissinger is a sign of desperation, as Beijing turns to a centenarian diplomat to try and shore up its shrinking credibility on the world stage. Kissinger's influence in Washington is much diminished compared to earlier years, and his pleas for striking a conciliatory path with China may fall flat. Amidst a trend of global hesitance about China, this effort was a last-ditch attempt to restore goodwill with the US.

Nerd narrative

There is a 19% chance there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The UK's Online Safety Bill is a mess. While the need for greater regulation to combat online child abuse is widely backed, the potential legislation is the product of the extreme wings of the ruling party that censors and attempts to extend governmental powers beyond its territorial borders.

Narrative B

Recent public opinion polling shows that the UK overwhelmingly backs calls to strengthen the Online Safety Bill's measures. The British public has a clear message to the government that the online safety of children is paramount, and the influence of Big Tech must be counteracted.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia continues attempting to destroy the lifeblood of Ukraine, launching yet another terrorist attack that kills civilians and destroys civilian infrastructure. Ukraine's will to withstand and defeat this evil will not be conquered.

Pro-Russia narrative

This Russian attack was retaliation for Ukraine's terror attack on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea. It struck the military base and equipment responsible for launching the Ukrainian attack.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The biggest tech giant in the world, Apple has both economic power and an enormous fan base. Therefore, it's evident that once the so-called "Apple GPT" goes live, it will revolutionize the generative AI chatbot market. One can only expect that this new tool will raise the bar for similar tools while attracting more interest and market investment to the technological race.

Narrative B

Despite the reported advances as well as the rumors that Apple will make an AI-related announcement next year, the company seems disoriented in relation to generative AI and machine learning development. While its rivals have quickly offered their own AI products, such as large language models to businesses and the public, Apple still has no solid plans in the AI space.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that OpenAI will make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users by April 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While the report does find fault in some research that he had supervised, Tessier-Lavigne is still one of the foremost experts in his field. This investigation is proof that academia is working as intended, as the indispensable tool of peer review helped uncover flaws in the research. While Tessier-Lavigne may have been lax in his lab, he isn't a fraudster and is showing his integrity by stepping down to avoid further distractions, despite being exonerated.

Narrative B

Data manipulation, especially manipulation of images, has become endemic in science. By manipulating data, researchers poison the well-being of science as others build on their fraudulent work. The stifling and cliquish world of academia can create environments where sloppy work is passed off and where it can be career suicide to question it. Tessier-Lavigne should have known better, as manipulation of data puts the entire scientific method in jeopardy.

Left narrative

After multiple botched attempts to execute inmates, Alabama is looking to redeem itself by killing James Barber despite clear questions about the state’s protocols. The death penalty is a horrendous stain on America as is, but adding the horror of a potentially botched injection is appalling.

Right narrative

Capital punishment is reserved for the most heinous crimes, such as the one committed by James Barber. Gov. Ivey and Alabama authorities have conducted a thorough review of the issues that used to plague the lethal injection methods of the state and implemented the appropriate reforms. There's no reason to delay this justice.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that capital punishment will be legal in at least 38.1% of US states by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Progressive narrative

If SCOTUS can upend decades of precedent to eliminate race-based selection, then certainly the courts and the schools can see how legacy preference – which overwhelmingly favors white applicants and gives a leg up to the wealthy over people from marginalized communities – should be abolished. Legacy preference is a large part of structural racism in the US.

Conservative narrative

Legacy preference in college admissions is necessary for the survival of the institutions that use them. Not only are legacy applicants more likely to enroll in the school – making for a smooth and certain admissions process — but they're also more likely to become donors who contribute to the endowments that keep private schools afloat. Whereas affirmative action had little benefit to schools, legacy preference is a school's lifeblood.

Republican narrative

It's ironic how Democrats engaged in an all-out blitz to censor RFK Jr. during a hearing on censorship while having the nerve to claim they’re not actively censoring dissent. The woke left has used the same smear tactics, calling their opponents “racist,” “sexist,” “antisemitic,” and other “ists” in order to stop them from speaking. They’ve usually reserved their totalitarianism for conservatives, but now they’re even branching out to silence anti-establishment members of their own party.

Democratic narrative

RFK Jr., who has been intentionally spreading dangerous misinformation for years, should not be given the platform to continue doing so before the House of Representatives. Republicans should be ashamed that they invited him, especially after his recent comments, which added racism to his repertoire of problematic rhetoric. This is suspiciously convenient for the GOP — RFK Jr. is a "Democrat" running to the right of DeSantis and Trump who has caught the eye of conservative operatives and donors.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.