Biden Calls China a 'Ticking Time Bomb'
On Thursday, US Pres. Joe Biden described China as a "ticking time bomb," because of its weak economic growth, high unemployment, and the country's aging population.
Biden stated that, despite the US wanting a rational relationship with Beijing, the nation has, "got some problems." He continued, saying: "That's not good because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things."
Biden's remarks come after he signed an executive order prohibiting new US investments in Chinese technology that might be used by Beijing to modernize its military, such as computer chips.
Pro-China narrative
The Biden administration continues to engage in the unfortunate escalation of strategic competition between the US and the PRC. Due to ideological fears, the US is continuing to attempt to isolate China economically from the rest of the world. The US' anxiety-driven overreactions to China and its inevitable growth will only fuel tensions and global danger. Washington's continued hostility towards Beijing benefits nobody.
Anti-China narrative
While its economy was to be envied two years ago, China is struggling today. Xi Jinping's erratic behavior and erroneous zero COVID policy have stunted China's growth. Though the country's economy is in shambles, China still poses a credible threat to the global order, and it doesn't take a xenophobe to be worried about the international influence of an increasingly autocratic state.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Arrests Suspected CIA Spy
On Friday, China’s Ministry of State Security announced the arrest of a 52-year-old Chinese national named Zeng, who is accused of spying for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) by allegedly providing sensitive military information in exchange for money and immigration to the US.
The Ministry of State Security claims Zeng — who reportedly worked for an unknown military industrial group — went to study in Italy and was befriended by a CIA agent stationed at the US embassy in Rome.
Zeng, according to the ministry, became "psychologically dependent" on the CIA agent, who cultivated a friendship through dinners, outings, visits to the opera, and other activities.
Pro-China narrative
This case is the latest example of how the US engages in more global surveillance and reconnaissance than any other country in the face of what it considers to be a long list of threats. But it’s the US’ spying that causes many crises across the globe. It’s vital for China and other countries to crack down on US espionage.
Anti-China narrative
Even if these vague allegations hold any weight, China itself isn't innocent when it comes to engaging in espionage, repeatedly targeting the US and anyone else it considers a threat to its hegemonic goals. Just earlier this month, the US arrested two sailors suspected of spying for China. If Beijing wants to see an end to all the spying, it must first recognize its hypocrisies.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rupert Murdoch's News Corp Sees Profits Plunge 75%
On Thursday, media giant News Corp revealed that profits this year had fallen 75%, with their net income falling to $187M on June 30, less than the $760M in profits the company raked in last year.
The company did, however, beat quarterly earnings estimates thanks to cost-cutting measures. CEO Robert Thomson revealed the company was staking its hopes on generative artificial intelligence (AI), calling it a "remarkable opportunity."
Thomson also revealed that 50% of the company's revenue was from its digital streams. Core earnings rose 8%, buoyed by data services and subscriptions, but suffered from an 18.4% drop in real estate revenue and an 11.9% decline in ad revenue in the final quarter.
Left narrative
One of the great exporters of far-right politics and low-quality infotainment, Rupert Murdoch's media empire is slowly but surely crumbling. His promotion of toxic political causes has finally forced consumers away from his products. However, we ought to be concerned about the potential damage an AI product could do if they create a generative model based on their noxious journalism.
Right narrative
While there will no doubt be glee in some circles at this news, Murdoch's other conglomerate, Fox News' owner Fox Corp, has been doing just fine, even after the departure of its star anchor Tucker Carlson. News Corp's woes are due to market fluctuations, with the public still enjoying Murdoch's products in spite of the haranguing leftists who think they can dictate what media they can and cannot enjoy.
India to Scrap Colonial-Era Laws, Repeal Penal Code
On Friday, India's federal government presented three bills to repeal and replace the Indian Penal Code, the Code of Criminal Procedure, and the Indian Evidence Act, many of which were implemented during the British rule.
The proposed changes deal with pressing issues, including imposing the death penalty for mob lynching and sexual assault on minors as well as a 20-year minimum sentence for gang rape.
Home Minister Amit Shah further stated that one of the bills would replace the colonial-era sedition law, imposed by the British in 1860 to repress freedom fighters, with its own version.
Narrative A
Minister Shah is trying to kill multiple birds with one stone. While ridding India of any remnants of colonialism, these bills will also protect women and children from forced sexual relationships. PM Modi's government believes in India's rightful status as a sovereign country, which is why he's working to protect his people from both their enslaved past and modern-day extremism.
Narrative B
While the official wording of the old British laws may have been changed in the proposed bills, Modi's government isn't actually repealing the sedition act. In fact, it is broadening the definition of seditious words to include those with the so-called tendency to incite violence or cause public disorder. The British may not be in charge any longer, but Modi has picked up the authoritarian sword and wielded it for himself.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Bharatiya Janata Party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
At Least 23 Rohingya Dead After Boat Sinks Off Myanmar
The death toll of a Rohingya boat that capsized after reportedly being hit by a large wave near Myanmar's Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, has risen to at least 23 people — 13 women and 10 men — with 30 passengers still missing.
A spokesperson for the Shwe Yaung Matta Foundation rescue group stated that eight people have been found alive so far, all of them currently held at a local police station.
The boat, which was on its way to Malaysia, reportedly departed in bad weather as thousands of Muslim-majority Rohingya seek to flee Myanmar and Bangladesh in search of better living conditions.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Rohingya people have desperately risked their lives crossing the ocean for years, trying to find a safe place to live after suffering human rights abuses in Myanmar. This crisis has exposed structural flaws in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as its rules made it possible for Myanmar to prevent regional powers from investigating the scale of human rights abuses and taking action to halt them.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's hypocritical to criticize solely ASEAN when Western democracies have done nothing to help the Rohingya — even though the International Court of Justice has long called for measures to protect those persecuted. While this is likely to be a consequence of fears that Myanmar would strengthen ties with Beijing if pressed, not acting to preserve the universal validity of human rights can only damage the West's reputation — the plight of the Rohingya at sea is the world's responsibility.
Biden Asks Congress for Additional $24B in Ukraine Aid
US Pres. Joe Biden asked Congress to approve an additional $24B in Ukraine aid, senior admin. officials told reporters on Thursday.
The request includes $13B for security assistance and $7.3B for economic and humanitarian assistance while also setting aside $3.3B to fund infrastructure in countries affected by the war — reportedly to prevent Chinese lending in those countries.
It also requests funding for a range of domestic issues, including $12B for disaster relief, $4B for managing America's southwest border, and $4B for combating the trade of illicit drugs, namely fentanyl. The total for the request comes to roughly $40B.
Democratic narrative
This request, which enjoys strong support, demonstrates that the US continues to stand in firm support of Ukraine against Russia's illegal invasion. There will be some challenges for it to pass, but it should do so.
Republican narrative
This exorbitant request promises huge sums of money to Ukraine while continuing to neglect America's vast problems at home. In fact, it will send six times the amount of money to Ukraine, compared with how much Biden has requested for the problems at the border and the fentanyl crisis.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US will direct at least $13.61B in security assistance to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CDC: US Suicides Reached All-Time High in 2022
New Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data shows an estimated 49,449 people in the US died by suicide in 2022, the highest figure the agency has ever recorded and a 2.6% increase from the previous year.
The CDC posted the estimated number Thursday and also reported that the 2022 suicide rate of 14.9 deaths per 100K people is 5% higher than the previous record of 14.2 deaths per 100K in 2018.
US suicides were steadily rising from the early 2000s until 2018 when the national suicide rate reached its highest level since 1941. The rate started to fall in 2019 and 2020 before rising by 4% in 2021 and now 3% in 2022.
Right narrative
America is seeing a crisis from what has been described as “deaths of despair,” exacerbated by a culture that foments the social ills of our time. The US was already going down a dark path as communities decayed and many working-class people lost their jobs, but the COVID lockdowns were the biggest nail in the coffin. America must look to rebuild communities and provide better economic opportunity if it hopes to reverse the alarming rise in suicides.
Left narrative
You cannot talk about rising suicide rates without talking about the massive gun problem in America. Data shows that gun-related suicides are on the rise, and open access to firearms allows people to act out on their worst impulses. The gun epidemic has not only taken the lives of people via homicides and mass shootings, but it has also caused thousands of deaths by suicide.
Trump, Aide Plead Not Guilty to New Documents Case Charges
On Thursday, former Pres. Donald Trump and Walt Nauta, his longtime aide, pleaded not guilty to additional charges in the case over Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents that were taken from the White House to his Mar-a-Lago residence.
Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, the property manager of Mar-a-Lago, appeared in federal court, where they faced updated charges of conspiring to delete surveillance video sought by investigators.
Trump – who issued his plea when he last week waived his right to appear in person – and Nauta were previously charged in June, but a new indictment last month added more charges and included De Oliveira.
Democratic narrative
The list of Trump's indictments keeps growing, and it seems more and more likely he’ll be spending the winter and spring in court. He can deny these charges all he wants, but it seems that his aides were acting on his orders to destroy evidence to keep investigators from retrieving the documents they requested several times. With this many indictments, it's only a matter of time before he's found guilty.
Pro-Trump narrative
The immense number of indictments is an indication of how weaponized the Justice Department under Biden has become and how intensely it wants to achieve its goal of derailing the leader for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Eventually, however, the truth will prevail and the former president will be proven innocent.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 35% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Mortgage Delinquency Rates Hit Record Low
According to the US Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, delinquency rates fell to 3.37% at the end of Q2, down 3.64% year-over-year and the lowest since the MBA began collecting data in 1979.
While 30-, 60-, and 90-day delinquency rates fell to 1.75%, 0.55%, and 1.07%, respectively, rates for conventional loans fell 15 basis points to 2.29%, FHA rates fell 32 basis points to 8.95%, and VA rates fell 28 basis points to 3.70%, the lowest since Q4 of 2019.
However, FHA delinquencies rose 0.1% compared to the same period a year ago and, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, rose 0.13% year-over-year and 0.71% from the first quarter of 2023.
Narrative A
The economy is recovering well after the COVID pandemic, and that has meant strong wage growth and historically low unemployment. When people have money, they’re able to continue making their mortgage payments, and hopefully, this lack of distress will continue.
Narrative B
The delinquency rate is low because homeowners are terrified to sign up for record-high interest-rate mortgages, not because of a robust job market or other outside forces. The Fed’s interest rate hikes are scaring people from biting off more than they can chew and are also killing the housing market.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by Aug. 14, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Attorney General Appoints Special Counsel in Hunter Biden Probe
US Attorney General Merrick Garland announced on Friday that a special counsel has been appointed to investigate the financial and business dealings of Hunter Biden, the son of Pres. Joe Biden.
Garland has appointed Delaware federal prosecutor David Weiss to fill the role of special counsel. Weiss, who had seen a plea deal with Hunter Biden over tax and gun charges fall apart last month, asked Garland to give him special counsel status to continue his investigation.
Hunter Biden had struck a plea deal with prosecutors after being charged with felony gun possession and two tax misdemeanors in Delaware, though a judge quashed it as "unusual." The case is now expected to head to trial.
Democratic narrative
After years of smearing the President and his son, there is still not a single shred of evidence that Hunter Biden's tumultuous personal life has anything to do with his father or could be considered corruption. Weiss, the Trump-appointed prosecutor, will continue this politically motivated crusade. Until there is serious evidence of wrongdoing, this appointment changes nothing.
Republican narrative
Far from being biased against Hunter Biden, Weiss was responsible for authoring the sweetheart plea deal given to the First Son that had terms so lenient a judge threw it out entirely. This move is a Biden admin. whitewash, and we cannot trust Weiss to act impartially. Congressional Republicans will ignore this distraction and keep pursuing the evidence of Hunter Biden's wrongdoing.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance Hunter Biden will be indicted by Nov. 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.