Narrative A

Signs point to Tuesday’s crash being caused by a critical point failure of the helicopter’s structure, but the exact cause remains unknown. This is a tragic outcome, but authorities will be sure to release information as they investigate for the benefit of the victims' families.

Narrative B

While tragedies can be unpredictable, there are key indicators suggesting Tuesday’s helicopter crash should have been anticipated. One of the helicopter types involved in the tragedy had been involved in a collision just a month prior, and the aircraft model has experienced other problems over the years. It doesn’t seem as if all possible safety precautions were taken to prevent this crash.

Nerd narrative

There is a 7.5% chance, that Malaysia will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Poor American air quality is even more bad news for low-income and minority populations, which have historically inhaled more polluted air than people in affluent neighborhoods or gentrified areas. This is clearly a product of structural racism and it's a crisis that must be addressed by the US government.

Pro-establishment narrative

In order to tackle this problem, the US government needs to come up with all-encompassing solutions. Already cars are using cleaner fuels and coal-fired facilities are being shut down. More can be done as long as there's the requisite amount of federal and local investment to continue the momentum.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 113M DALYs caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The aftermath of Hamas' 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli response mirrors the US reaction to 9/11, which also eroded the rules-based global order. These incidents underscore the need to strengthen a fair application of international law and a shift towards a more just global order to prevent further atrocities and promote peace.

Narrative B

Global shifts in power dynamics are driving countries to recalibrate their strategies and defense spending. Rising tensions between the US, Russia, China, Iran, and Israel are prompting significant military build-ups and alliances. There's an urgent need for a new approach to prevent potential conflicts —the post-WWII order as we knew it has changed dramatically.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite presenting himself to the world as a strongman, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin for years has failed to tackle the rot and corruption that has infested his military. This boils down to the leader's preference for loyal stooges rather than anyone with competence who can challenge his authority.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian Pres. Putin made his name by tackling corruption in the early 2000s and has continued to do this throughout his years of leadership. Just this year, he instructed prosecutors to ramp up their efforts to tackle graft, particularly as it pertains to the Russian Special Military Operation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that The Economist will rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index by December 2051, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Noncompete contracts rarely protect company secrets. In fact, their primary function is to shackle employees to their existing companies by forcing them to switch careers or move far away to find a new job if they seek to leave — something most people can't afford to do. By prohibiting employees from starting their own businesses, these contracts also weaken competition. If we want employees and entrepreneurs to thrive, these agreements should be banned at all levels of business.

Narrative B

Despite what these anti-business government officials claim, noncompete clauses actually promote competition and help, not hinder, employees. This is also an egregious, unconstitutional power grab by three unelected regulators who think they can decide what is and isn't a competitive market. The FTC has never been granted such overarching authority, which is why actual American business leaders will fight this in court.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading major economy by July 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Although many have made light of London's runaway horses — likening the event to an apocalyptic omen — the reality is that horses forced to wear decorated outfits and trot along London's heaving capital is nothing short of animal abuse and was always bound to go wrong.

Narrative B

This was a freak accident that will be investigated. By no means should it be used to call for the end of a famous British tradition. These horses are integral to state ceremonies and hold a unique power to draw tourists to the UK capital. One rare case of chaos shouldn't mean the end to a foundation of the country's culture.

Nerd narrative

There's a 67% chance that reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Republicans have passed this dangerous bill despite polling showing most US teachers think more guns in schools will make their workplaces less safe. In the wake of The Convenant School tragedy, Tenessee residents were looking for legislation to make kids safer, not a law that would increase firearms in schools. If this leads to yet another tragedy, Republicans will have blood on their hands.

Republican narrative

This bill will make kids in school safer, and Democrats and other opponents are misrepresenting the reforms being made. Law enforcement officers and private security guards are already allowed to carry guns in schools, so this bill expands who can be armed. At the same time, the additional armed personnel will be trained and have their backgrounds checked — meaning there will be more good guys with guns if a bad guy with a gun enters a school.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be 1.41 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

SCOTUS must side with the government in order to protect the health of women facing life-threatening pregnancy complications. Republican-led states should also be warned that if this case goes their way, they'll likely face doctor shortages caused by the threat of criminal charges for providing emergency care.

Republican narrative

EMTALA was written to prevent death and protect the unborn, and the Biden administration's attempt to expand its scope is unconstitutional. SCOTUS can't let the Democratic administration impose its pro-choice views on pro-life states. It's paramount to protect state decisions if those states choose to restrict abortion access.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that 56.1% of US states will have Casey-era abortion rights granted on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu has gone too far with the war in Gaza, and the US will continue to stress the need for restraint and caution.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has made clear time and time again that it will not tolerate Iranian-backed terrorists operating near its borders. Iran is playing a dangerous game through its attempts to destabilize the region, and Israel must deter Tehran from believing that it can gain anything from this war. Regardless of the UN's campaign to demonize Israel, Israel never wanted this war and has been forced to respond to a terrible situation. However, it will aggressively pursue its interests to ensure the security of its citizens

Pro-Palestine narrative

Reflexive US support for Israel over the decades has finally culminated in a horrifying display of human brutality — mass famine against the Palestinian people. Besides moral consideration around supporting Israel's slaughter in Gaza, Israel has consistently proven time and time again that it is a bad ally that is highly unreliable. While American and Israeli interests continue to diverge, successive American leaders have failed to recalibrate. Now, the US is risking a regional war by supporting a rogue Israeli state.

Narrative D

Hezbollah continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, and Israel should keep in mind the weak position it currently faces. The resistance has been clear from day one that it does not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Hezbollah and its allies only seek to end Israel's crimes in Gaza. Even the Israeli military has acknowledged that Hezbollah's arsenal is fully intact, and a war would be very costly.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Biden campaign's hypocrisy is galling. If TikTok is safe enough for it to be part of the president's attempt to accumulate crucial votes from younger citizens, it's safe enough for average Americans to use.

Narrative B

The bill Biden signed doesn't immediately ban TikTok. If everyone else is going to keep using it, the Biden campaign surely can continue doing so. The campaign is taking necessary precautions to keep the account safe.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.