Narrative A

Corruption is a sickness that has crept across Colombia's military. Some military officers sell state property to international arms traffickers for personal gain, thus fueling the illegal weapons market. This is equipment that, in the wrong hands, may harm and kill Colombian troops or decimate countries like Haiti. Inspections will continue until the entire extent of this criminal conduct is identified and shut down.

Narrative B

Petro is a controversial president, a leftist, and a former member of the M-19 rebel organization. It's ironic he discusses military corruption when several members of his family have either been indicted — like his son or will be charged shortly, like his brother, for accepting payments from drug traffickers in exchange for judicial privileges from the Petro administration. Halfway through his four-year term, President Petro has some convincing to do to persuade Colombia's citizens that he can restore peace.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance there will be a civil war in Colombia before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Council's decision to appoint Bélizaire as prime minister is a solid choice that will help bridge political divisions and contribute to stabilizing Haiti. Security is now paramount as Haitians demand decisive action to quell rampant gang violence. Bélizaire has the necessary experience and influence to handle this monumental task successfully and lead Haiti to a brighter future.

Narrative B

Bélizaire's appointment not only surprised many Haitians but also threatened to fracture the recently installed Transitional Council. With his election, the council's political accord has been undermined by the very forces responsible for Haiti's collapse. Haiti cannot afford further political instability, leaving criminal gangs in control of much of the country. If the decision is not challenged, Haitians face a bleak future.

Nerd narrative

There is a 69% chance, that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This was precisely the aim of the US when it provided Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. Crimea, alongside other parts of eastern Ukraine illegally occupied by Russia, has been comfortably used by Russian forces as a launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine. The delivery of these weapons allows Ukraine to disrupt these logistical nodes and troop concentrations.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine has already used more limited weapons to launch a series of terror attacks on Russian territory. Now that the US has provided Kyiv with long-range ATACMS, Russia can only expect these terror attacks to continue and escalate. Now, more Russian cities are in danger and Crimea is in striking range. Russia will have no choice but to respond to this escalation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 28% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The proposed RedBird IMI acquisition of the Telegraph titles forced the UK government and public to think about the extent to which national infrastructure — including its newspapers — should be in the hands of foreign governments. Clearly, having one of the UK's biggest titles under the control of a dictatorship, which restricts press freedom among its own people and journalists, isn't the best idea.

Establishment-critical narrative

While there are legitimate press freedom concerns about a UAE-backed investment fund owning a major British newspaper title, most of the discussion around this reeks of self-interest and hypocrisy. The UAE backers are in large part more respectable than many UK newspaper owners, and their deep pockets would likely make the Telegraph titles thrive again. Commotion by competitors over this sale can easily be reduced to fears over the media group’s revival.

Nerd narrative

There's a 29% chance that the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating will be downgraded below an A grade by January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Under both liberal and conservative governments, New Zealand has acted as a US proxy for decades. After supporting both the Afghanistan and Iraq wars at the beginning of the century, and now training Ukrainian troops in the UK and backing Israel's bombardment of Gaza, it will be no surprise when Wellington joins this anti-China agreement. Whether it signs on to the nuclear submarine part of AUKUS or not, New Zealand seems willing to help start a new war with China.

Pro-establishment narrative

It makes sense for New Zealand to join AUKUS for several reasons. Not only do Western countries account for most of its trade partners, but China has imposed sanctions on the small island since 2020. Given that its economy is far too small to fund a completely independent defense budget, it's also obvious that Wellington would benefit significantly from joining a military pact. If New Zealand wants to deter China's threats, its best option is to join the AUKUS.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by January 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Progressive narrative

These protesters have a First Amendment right to have their opinions heard and to be protected from violence. That vigilantes — espousing pro-Israel and "back the blue" chants — were able to stage an attack on UCLA's campus while police waited hours to respond, is a sign that protesters on every campus may not be safe — a clear violation of what it means to be American. Student protestors supporting anti-war, pro-Palestinan points of view must be heard.

Conservative narrative

Cultural Marxism has invaded college campuses across the country through the faculty and administration, and these protesters' minds have been infected. Much of this worldview is being expressed in antisemitic, anti-Israel words and actions that are putting Jewish students in danger. It's a shame that it's come to this, but many of these protesters must be arrested and prosecuted.

Narrative C

The media is ignoring the majority of students who are not involved in these protests and hold diverse perspectives on the matter. Many students believe their peers should be allowed to protest peacefully, but also agree that a line should be drawn at violent riots. The college experience should absolutely include political protests, as long as they remain peaceful.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that Israel's arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Florida's abortion law is in line with science (six weeks is often when a baby's heartbeat becomes detectable) and public opinion (according to recent polling). No amount of fear-mongering by the radical left can obscure the fact that this law will save tens of thousands of children's lives while protecting women by including several exceptions and continuing to provide women with emergency medical care when they need it.

Left narrative

By enacting this law, Florida has lost its status as a safe harbor for those in the state and the southeastern region seeking abortions. Luckily, democracy moves on, and not only has the right's draconian law inspired record-breaking fundraising in opposition to the ban, but a popular amendment to overturn the law will be on the ballot on Election Day. Abortion rights aren't dead yet.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Casey-era abortion rights will be granted in 56% of US states on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

The DEA shouldn't change course on marijuana, which remains a gateway drug and grossly threatens public health and safety. Reclassifying the substance, which has a high potential for abuse, as a less dangerous drug could only give a political boost to Pres. Joe Biden among left-leaning marginalized voters.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Biden administration must end the federal prohibition on marijuana and address longstanding harms caused by the failed war on drugs. It's time the US corrects decades of outdated federal policy, acknowledges the medical benefits of the long-criminalized drug, and opens up the doors to more research and investment in the marijuana sector.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Walmart didn't want to close its health centers, but, unfortunately, any business model needs to have profitability to remain afloat. However, this doesn't mean Walmart will stop providing other valuable health services, including vaccinations, testing and treatment centers, medication therapy, and over 4K pharmacy locations.

Narrative B

It's not that Walmart couldn't profit from its health centers, it's that it couldn't profit as much as it wanted to. These health centers have been a lifeline for countless Americans, particularly in rural communities, and corporate greed has just ripped the rug right out from under those vulnerable populations.

Nerd narrative

There is an 18% chance that Walmart stores will return to hour service before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

The real divide in Washington isn't Republicans vs. Democrats, it's those who put America first against those who are bought and paid for by special interests. Upon becoming Speaker, Johnson vowed to uphold the will of Republican voters and fight against far-left policies that are bleeding America dry. But he decided to cozy up with Democrats and fortify the "uniparty" in DC, so now he must be removed.

Republican narrative

While some Republicans may not be thrilled with Johnson, it's important for the GOP to stick together for the good of the party. With a razor-thin majority, sometimes Republicans need Democratic support, and it's unreasonable to expect Johnson to be perfect. Republicans already removed one speaker, and ousting Johnson would only make the party look bad.

Democratic narrative

While Republicans continue to show the country they're incapable of governing, Democrats are rising above politics. House Democrats may not agree with Johnson ideologically, but they're committed to restoring decency and bipartisanship. By ending Greene's political stunt Democrats are showing they're the adults in the room.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Johnson will remain Speaker for all of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.