Somalia: Terror Attack on Mogadishu Beach Kills Dozens
At least 32 people were killed and 63 others wounded in a suicide attack on Lido Beach in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, on Friday.
Al-Shabab, an al-Qaida-linked militant group, claimed responsibility for the deadly assault, which started after a suicide bomber reportedly detonated explosives outside the Beach View Hotel.
According to the Somali police, three militants who had stormed the hotel and also fired on beachgoers had been killed. One gunman was captured alive, while one soldier was killed in the attack.
Narrative A
Friday's vicious attack is a massive security failure. It underscores al-Shabab's enduring threat despite Pres. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud last year declaring a "total war" on the militants. It exposes the fragile character of the UN- and US-backed Somalian government, which depends on the support of foreign troops to stay in power. The country must take charge of its own security if it wants to end al-Shabab's quest to topple the rule of law and impose an Islamic state.
Narrative B
Al-Shabab controlled a vast territory of Somalia and had been waging a brutal insurgency for nearly two decades. However, after Pres. Mohamud came to power in 2022, the government launched a counteroffensive and freed large swaths of the country from al-Shabab's clutches. Despite recent setbacks, the government is committed to eradicating the terrorists and ensuring peace, security, and stability.
Narrative C
The war with al-Shabab has dragged on for two decades, killing innocent civilians, including women and children. Friday's indiscriminate attack has sent a message that it will not vanish and will ramp up attacks in the capital. Pres. Mohamud must look into what room there might be for dialogue or negotiation with the armed group, or else such heinous attacks will continue with no end in sight.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that there will be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Agrees to Fox News Debate, Harris Pushes for ABC News
Republican presidential nominee, former US Pres. Donald Trump, has agreed to face off with his Democratic rival, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, in a presidential debate on Fox News, adding that this is the only offer of a debate he'll make.
The proposed debate would be held on Sept. 4 in a yet-to-be-announced location in Pennsylvania, with rules similar to the June 27 CNN debate between Trump and Joe Biden, however it will include an audience.
This comes after Trump declared that he had terminated a previously scheduled Sept. 10 debate on ABC News after Biden left the presidential race and endorsed Harris last month.
Democratic narrative
Throughout the year, Trump had begged to debate Biden with complete indifference to the details. However, the former president and his team became reluctant to face Kamala Harris when she became the Democratic candidate. Trump is now backpedaling out of fear over how he would perform against a younger, more dynamic figure like Harris.
Republican narrative
It doesn't matter how hard Democrats and their media allies try to act as if Trump is dodging the September debate; that claim will never be valid. He had agreed to face Biden twice after details were negotiated between their teams, so new negotiations had to occur after Harris' nomination. The Vice President is looking for a way out of risking defeat in a debate against Trump.
Nerd narrative
There's a 46% chance that Donald Trump will debate the Democratic nominee for president once in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mali Breaks Off Diplomatic Ties with Ukraine
Mali has severed diplomatic relations with Ukraine after Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR) implicated Kyiv in last month's deadly ambush on Malian soldiers and Wagner fighters near the Algerian border.
On July 25, Tuareg rebels and militants from the al-Qaida affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin clashed with Malian and Russian soldiers near Tinzaouaten. In the ensuing battle, the Malian army suffered "significant" losses, while Russia's Wagner group reportedly lost at least 20 mercenaries.
The controversy erupted when GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov on July 29 said that the Malian rebels had been given "all the information they needed, which allowed [them] to carry out their operation against the Russian war criminals."
Narrative A
Ukraine's involvement in a cowardly, treacherous, and brutal terrorist attack in July is not only deplorable, it's an instance of unacceptable foreign interference in Mali's domestic affairs. Bamako can't maintain diplomatic relations with aggressors who actively support terrorist groups in the region.
Narrative B
Ukraine provides strategic intelligence to Tuareg fighters to combat Russian war criminals perpetrating war crimes and widespread looting in northern Mali. Moscow also extracts Malian resources to fund its war against Ukraine; Kyiv is within its rights to target Russian forces and defend its sovereignty.
Nerd narrative
There's a 68% chance that Mali will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Kamala Harris Interviews Top Running Mate Contenders
Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, interviewed at least three top contenders to be her running mate — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly — at her residence in Washington, D.C. on Sunday.
According to the Associated Press, sources familiar with the Harris campaign said that Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were also interviewed over the weekend.
Presidential candidates usually take months to select a running mate, but Harris has only until the party's national convention, from Aug. 19 to Aug. 22, to choose a vice presidential candidate.
Democratic narrative
There have been several promising contenders on the shortlist for VP candidate, with Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro and Minnesota's Tim Walz now considered the frontrunners, but Harris will ensure that whoever is picked will be an effective leader who can help push for victory against Donald Trump and his dangerous agenda.
Republican narrative
Shapiro faces the opposition of anti-Israel left-wing voters, and Walz was disastrous in handling the pandemic and 2020 riots. Yes, either can help Harris win their respective home battleground state — but that's all. But whomever Harris picks doesn't matter; she will lose the election regardless.
Nerd narrative
There's a 52% chance that Josh Shapiro will be the Democratic nominee for vice president on Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Zelenskyy Showcases Ukraine's Newly Delivered F-16s
Marking Ukraine's Armed Forces Day, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday showcased US-made F-16 fighter jets that recently arrived in the country, stating they will help turn the tide in the war with Russia.
Standing in front of two of the jets, while another two flew overhead in close formation, Zelenskyy said: "Now we have a new reality in our skies. The F-16s are in Ukraine. We made it happen. I am proud of our guys who are mastering these aircraft and have already started using them for our country."
So far, Ukraine has reportedly received six F-16s — donated by the Netherlands — but is set to receive roughly 60 more from Belgium and Norway in the coming months.
Pro-establishment narrative
These F-16s mark a significant improvement in Ukraine's available weaponry and will be used to better protect troops, attack Russian targets, and shoot down incoming missiles. This is a new chapter for Ukraine's war effort and the defense of its territories.
Pro-Russia narrative
While the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine is being heralded as a "magic pill" for the country's frontline difficulties, Russia will systematically destroy these jets and their numbers will soon dwindle. These planes will have little impact on the battlefield.
Nerd narrative
There's a 23% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Olympics: Noah Lyles Wins 100-Meter Gold by 0.005 Seconds
Sprinter Noah Lyles on Sunday became the first American in 20 years to win an Olympic 100m title, beating his nearest rival by a mere five-thousandths of a second.
With a late rally, Lyles (at a personal best of 9.784 seconds) pipped Jamaica's Kishane Thompson (9.789 seconds) at the finishing line.
While others stepped over the finishing line before Lyles, his torso was first to reach its closest edge, earning him the gold.
Narrative A
Despite having the joint slowest start, Noah Lyles, known for his confidence and showmanship, cemented his status as a legendary sprinter in an unforgettable Olympic final. With his remarkable win, the American has ended Jamaica's 100m supremacy at the Olympic Games.
Narrative B
Lyles could only snatch victory from Thompson due to flawed Olympic rules and regulations, which count the trunk of the body, not the feet, to decide the winner. The sports' governing body must reconsider track and field rules that are unfair to those athletes who actually reach the finish line first.
Nerd narrative
There's an 86% chance that the US will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Bangladesh PM Resigns, Flees After Weeks of Deadly Protest
Following weeks of protest in which over 300 people have died, Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and left the country, the nation's Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman confirmed on Monday.
Waker-Uz-Zaman told the media that he would form an interim government to run the country, adding that he had taken "all responsibility" and pledging to "protect your life and property."
Hasina reportedly left the country on a military helicopter after protesters ignored a national curfew and stormed her official residence in Dhaka. Unconfirmed reports suggest she briefly landed in India and is headed to London.
Narrative A
This is a sad end to Hasina's year grip on power. She led the country through economic growth, so much so that in 2021, Bangladesh's per capita income surpassed India's. Yet her failure to effectively address dissent cost her her long rule.
Narrative B
Hasina's departure is the culmination of an increasingly autocratic rule, which included the jailing and killing of opposition leaders and activists. It was just a matter of time before people stood up against her repressive and corrupt acts and demanded her deposition.
Hezbollah Launches Fresh Drone Attacks on Northern Israel
Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched a drone attack on northern Israel's upper Galilee region on Monday. The Israeli military (IDF) said two of its soldiers were wounded and the attack ignited a fire.
The attack appears not to be an escalation of violence but rather a part of its months-long battles along the Israeli border connected to the war in Gaza. However, Hezbollah did call its attack a response to Israel's recent killing of its top commander, Fouad Shukur, and the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh.
This comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel by Monday or Tuesday. US Central Command Gen. Michael Kurilla traveled to Israel Monday to discuss defense cooperation with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel's decision to kill terror leaders is the opposite of escalation. Rather than bomb civilians like former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has done to Israel for decades, Tel Aviv chose to go after the brains of these terror plots, which, in the long-term, leads to less bloodshed. These assassinations exemplify Israel's commitment to limiting civilian casualties and only fighting terrorism.
Pro-establishment narrative
While Israel has a right to prepare for an all-out war with Hezbollah, its latest assassinations may not be the best path forward. Hezbollah knows it can't go face-to-face against Israel, and Iran doesn't want to lose its advanced weapons based in Lebanon, which means there is hope for a diplomatic solution. The US should sanction Lebanon to push it away from Iran and thus toward peace.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US is incapable of controlling Israel or Lebanon. Washington's military aid to the Lebanese government has done nothing to deter Hezbollah, while its unwavering support of Israel has only emboldened the IDF. The US is now contradicting itself again by asking for both sides to choose diplomacy while also telling Israel it has American support should an all-out war take place. US foreign policy may push us into yet another Middle East war.
UK: PM Starmer Announces 'Standing Army' of Police Officers to Tackle Riots
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Monday a new "standing army" of specialist officers to tackle riots that have swept the country amid claims that the suspect of the fatal stabbing of three young girls in Southport last week — a teenager born to Rwandan parents in Cardiff — had arrived by boat in the UK last year.
Such an arrangement has nothing to do with the actual army, but rather what is known as "mutual aid" — which consists of police forces deploying officers to other areas — and regularly happens to deal with big events.
Starmer further pledged to ramp up criminal justice, adding that those identified as having taken part in "attacks on mosques or Muslim communities" — either online or offline — will face "the full force of the law."
Left narrative
A minority of far-right extremists has weaponized the horrific killing of three children in Southport to spread misinformation about the suspect on social media and promote anti-immigration, anti-Muslim riots in a bid to claim that British society isn't a successful multi-ethnic one despite its high levels of integration. This is an attack on the rule of law to plunge the country into chaos, and one that shows that social media companies are failing their legal obligations to prevent such content.
Right narrative
Riots and misinformation in the wake of the Southport stabbings are nothing less than outrageous, period. All this violence, however, must not be used to disrespect a sorrowing community that has every right to be angry after such a heinous act took place in their town. It's time to stop pretending that everything is fine in the UK and finally address worries common to many Britons, not just violent agitators, about immigration and the challenges of diversity and integration.
Nerd narrative
There's an 88.9% chance that Keir Starmer will not cease to be Leader of the Labour Party before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Stock Market Plunges, Global Markets in Panic
The US stock market tumbled Monday, experiencing its worst day in nearly two years and sparking a global market sell-off. Fears of a US recession first sent the market into a panic on Friday, with the situation worsening as markets reopened this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1K points (2.6%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 160 (3%) and 576 points (3.43%), respectively. A troubling jobs report last week and the Federal Reserve’s decision to not cut interest rates have increased market fears of a recession.
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks — blue chip companies, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — lost about $650B in market value during Monday’s plunge. Nvidia’s price dropped as much as 13%, while Apple (more than 4%), Amazon (more than 8%), and Microsoft (5%) all experienced major losses.
Establishment-critical narrative
Economic and political turmoil have created a changing dynamic that could fundamentally alter the status quo of global markets. With the rise of globalism, markets are more interconnected than ever, and Japan’s plunging economy has deep ramifications for the US, which is the catalyst for the entire world. The Fed’s looming decision on cutting rates may be the first domino, but changing political tides towards populism may be charting an entirely new outlook that renders conventional wisdom obsolete.
Pro-establishment narrative
How many times have we seen the stock market plummet, sparking global hysteria and doomsday predictions? The answer is many. The recent market turmoil is no different than its predecessors, and the best thing for investors — both small and large — is to remain calm and stay the course. It’s impossible to predict what the market will be tomorrow, never mind next month or next year. Everything will self-correct in due time, and there’s no reason to act impulsively.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance that the bubble in the Magnificent Seven will pop before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.