Narrative A

Friday's vicious attack is a massive security failure. It underscores al-Shabab's enduring threat despite Pres. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud last year declaring a "total war" on the militants. It exposes the fragile character of the UN- and US-backed Somalian government, which depends on the support of foreign troops to stay in power. The country must take charge of its own security if it wants to end al-Shabab's quest to topple the rule of law and impose an Islamic state.

Narrative B

Al-Shabab controlled a vast territory of Somalia and had been waging a brutal insurgency for nearly two decades. However, after Pres. Mohamud came to power in 2022, the government launched a counteroffensive and freed large swaths of the country from al-Shabab's clutches. Despite recent setbacks, the government is committed to eradicating the terrorists and ensuring peace, security, and stability.

Narrative C

The war with al-Shabab has dragged on for two decades, killing innocent civilians, including women and children. Friday's indiscriminate attack has sent a message that it will not vanish and will ramp up attacks in the capital. Pres. Mohamud must look into what room there might be for dialogue or negotiation with the armed group, or else such heinous attacks will continue with no end in sight.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that there will be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Throughout the year, Trump had begged to debate Biden with complete indifference to the details. However, the former president and his team became reluctant to face Kamala Harris when she became the Democratic candidate. Trump is now backpedaling out of fear over how he would perform against a younger, more dynamic figure like Harris.

Republican narrative

It doesn't matter how hard Democrats and their media allies try to act as if Trump is dodging the September debate; that claim will never be valid. He had agreed to face Biden twice after details were negotiated between their teams, so new negotiations had to occur after Harris' nomination. The Vice President is looking for a way out of risking defeat in a debate against Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 46% chance that Donald Trump will debate the Democratic nominee for president once in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Ukraine's involvement in a cowardly, treacherous, and brutal terrorist attack in July is not only deplorable, it's an instance of unacceptable foreign interference in Mali's domestic affairs. Bamako can't maintain diplomatic relations with aggressors who actively support terrorist groups in the region.

Narrative B

Ukraine provides strategic intelligence to Tuareg fighters to combat Russian war criminals perpetrating war crimes and widespread looting in northern Mali. Moscow also extracts Malian resources to fund its war against Ukraine; Kyiv is within its rights to target Russian forces and defend its sovereignty.

Nerd narrative

There's a 68% chance that Mali will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

There have been several promising contenders on the shortlist for VP candidate, with Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro and Minnesota's Tim Walz now considered the frontrunners, but Harris will ensure that whoever is picked will be an effective leader who can help push for victory against Donald Trump and his dangerous agenda.

Republican narrative

Shapiro faces the opposition of anti-Israel left-wing voters, and Walz was disastrous in handling the pandemic and 2020 riots. Yes, either can help Harris win their respective home battleground state — but that's all. But whomever Harris picks doesn't matter; she will lose the election regardless.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that Josh Shapiro will be the Democratic nominee for vice president on Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

These F-16s mark a significant improvement in Ukraine's available weaponry and will be used to better protect troops, attack Russian targets, and shoot down incoming missiles. This is a new chapter for Ukraine's war effort and the defense of its territories.

Pro-Russia narrative

While the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine is being heralded as a "magic pill" for the country's frontline difficulties, Russia will systematically destroy these jets and their numbers will soon dwindle. These planes will have little impact on the battlefield.

Nerd narrative

There's a 23% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite having the joint slowest start, Noah Lyles, known for his confidence and showmanship, cemented his status as a legendary sprinter in an unforgettable Olympic final. With his remarkable win, the American has ended Jamaica's 100m supremacy at the Olympic Games.

Narrative B

Lyles could only snatch victory from Thompson due to flawed Olympic rules and regulations, which count the trunk of the body, not the feet, to decide the winner. The sports' governing body must reconsider track and field rules that are unfair to those athletes who actually reach the finish line first.

Nerd narrative

There's an 86% chance that the US will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is a sad end to Hasina's year grip on power. She led the country through economic growth, so much so that in 2021, Bangladesh's per capita income surpassed India's. Yet her failure to effectively address dissent cost her her long rule.

Narrative B

Hasina's departure is the culmination of an increasingly autocratic rule, which included the jailing and killing of opposition leaders and activists. It was just a matter of time before people stood up against her repressive and corrupt acts and demanded her deposition.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel's decision to kill terror leaders is the opposite of escalation. Rather than bomb civilians like former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has done to Israel for decades, Tel Aviv chose to go after the brains of these terror plots, which, in the long-term, leads to less bloodshed. These assassinations exemplify Israel's commitment to limiting civilian casualties and only fighting terrorism.

Pro-establishment narrative

While Israel has a right to prepare for an all-out war with Hezbollah, its latest assassinations may not be the best path forward. Hezbollah knows it can't go face-to-face against Israel, and Iran doesn't want to lose its advanced weapons based in Lebanon, which means there is hope for a diplomatic solution. The US should sanction Lebanon to push it away from Iran and thus toward peace.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US is incapable of controlling Israel or Lebanon. Washington's military aid to the Lebanese government has done nothing to deter Hezbollah, while its unwavering support of Israel has only emboldened the IDF. The US is now contradicting itself again by asking for both sides to choose diplomacy while also telling Israel it has American support should an all-out war take place. US foreign policy may push us into yet another Middle East war.

Left narrative

A minority of far-right extremists has weaponized the horrific killing of three children in Southport to spread misinformation about the suspect on social media and promote anti-immigration, anti-Muslim riots in a bid to claim that British society isn't a successful multi-ethnic one despite its high levels of integration. This is an attack on the rule of law to plunge the country into chaos, and one that shows that social media companies are failing their legal obligations to prevent such content.

Right narrative

Riots and misinformation in the wake of the Southport stabbings are nothing less than outrageous, period. All this violence, however, must not be used to disrespect a sorrowing community that has every right to be angry after such a heinous act took place in their town. It's time to stop pretending that everything is fine in the UK and finally address worries common to many Britons, not just violent agitators, about immigration and the challenges of diversity and integration.

Nerd narrative

There's an 88.9% chance that Keir Starmer will not cease to be Leader of the Labour Party before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Economic and political turmoil have created a changing dynamic that could fundamentally alter the status quo of global markets. With the rise of globalism, markets are more interconnected than ever, and Japan’s plunging economy has deep ramifications for the US, which is the catalyst for the entire world. The Fed’s looming decision on cutting rates may be the first domino, but changing political tides towards populism may be charting an entirely new outlook that renders conventional wisdom obsolete.

Pro-establishment narrative

How many times have we seen the stock market plummet, sparking global hysteria and doomsday predictions? The answer is many. The recent market turmoil is no different than its predecessors, and the best thing for investors — both small and large — is to remain calm and stay the course. It’s impossible to predict what the market will be tomorrow, never mind next month or next year. Everything will self-correct in due time, and there’s no reason to act impulsively.

Nerd narrative

There is a 24% chance that the bubble in the Magnificent Seven will pop before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.