Pro-establishment narrative

The world can make a difference in Sudan by fulfilling pledges for humanitarian aid and pushing for a cease-fire with a renewed focus and coordination. The international community is making every effort to amplify Sudanese voices and support their vision for a stable, civilian-led future.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite the continued outcries of international aid groups, the world has done little to actually end Sudan's crisis. Both warring sides have faced little public criticism for human rights violations, and the UN Security Council took nearly a year to call for a cease-fire.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that the RSF will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

These findings show that scientists' long-held desire to find water on Mars is coming to fruition. If confirmed, this discovery would be game-changing for scientists interested in the possibility of life on Mars and the continuing effort to establish the planet as habitable — in the past, present, and future.

Narrative B

Water may suggest life on Mars, but none has been found yet and so far there's little evidence to the contrary. Although Mars had the same basic ingredients as early Earth and similar watery conditions, it never had the necessary conditions for life to develop, and eventually the sun removed Mars' atmosphere. We're a long way from Mars being inhabitable.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance life will be found on Mars by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine has only ever wanted peace. But after Putin brought war to its territory, the war is now coming home to Russian territory. This is the only way to force Russia into a peaceful settlement of this conflict.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's now clear why Ukraine rejected Russia's peace offerings. It wanted to improve its position in negotiations. But how can Russia negotiate with people who indiscriminately strike civilians and civilian buildings?

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

This sudden departure confirms what many have already feared the House Foreign Affairs Committee is working on a whitewash and has failed to hold those in power accountable. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was the nadir of the Biden administration, and the president holds personal responsibility for the lives lost and damage caused. The incompetence on display from upper brass must be fully exposed.

Left narrative

Republicans are chasing shadows in the Afghanistan probe, as the hawkish GOP that got Washington into Afghanistan blames everyone but themselves for the rushed departure. The US couldn't afford to be stuck in a forever war in Afghanistan, and there were no options to stem the loss of lives and resources other than pulling the plug. The GOP is in disarray, and the committee's probe lacks seriousness and focus.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the US will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

High-quality training data isn't free for the taking. This axiom ought to reshape the AI landscape by forcing companies to play by the rules and obtain proper permissions. Ultimately, this push for accountability could lead to a fairer data economy, where consent and compensation become the norm.

Narrative B

It's not unusual for social media companies to collect personal data but it can be avoided by reviewing privacy settings and opting out of data sharing for AI training. One can also keep track of data download tools to see what information companies have collected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that X will announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Greece is facing a biblical catastrophe due to its failure to curb human-induced fossil fuel emissions, which worsen the length, frequency, and intensity of heat waves year after year. With over 47K heat-related deaths in Europe last year — with Greece leading at 393 per million — the turbulence that climate change can bring is undeniable. Athens can no longer be complacent and allow these catastrophic wildfires to become a regular occurrence.

Narrative B

Wildfires are often people-made disasters. While wildfires are a natural part of many ecosystems and are common during the summertime in Greece, the most devastating wildfires have been caused by negligence, arson, poor forest management practices, a lack of pre-emptive operations, and the government's piecemeal interventions that don't address the root causes of the country's increased fire risk over the past decade.

Narrative C

While a dispersed archipelago geography makes the Mediterranean country more vulnerable to wildfires, the Greek authorities aren't underestimating the impacts of climate change and have established a credible plan for climate adaptation. Additionally, the government has made causing a forest fire a criminal offense and created the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection to improve forest fire abatement and take preventive measures to tackle intensive wildfires.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Kennedy had no particular reason not to declare his actual legal residence, given that he has lived in California with his wife for a decade. However, he decided to commit voter fraud for years voting in New York as if his residence was the bedroom in a friend's house — and outrageously doubled down on this lie to get on the presidential ballot.

Republican narrative

Democrats are desperate that RFK Jr. may take votes that could cost Vice Pres. Kamala Harris the presidential election, so they have yet again resorted to lawfare against a political opponent months after their failed attempts to block Trump from the ballot in several states. They simply don't care about democracy, just about keeping power.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This was a great opportunity for Trump to have a laid-back chat with one of the most famous men on Earth in front of a worldwide audience and elaborate on his policy issues, including immigration, inflation, and education. Meanwhile, Harris continues to dodge the media while refusing to answer questions about her extreme-left positions on these issues.

Democratic narrative

Chalk this up as another trainwreck for the Trump campaign. The interview was hampered by technical difficulties and Trump's speaking troubles. Most of all, it was filled with his rantings that have been disproven time and again. Harris' growing popularity is obviously pushing the former president to the edge and his campaign can't stop the freefall.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

It's difficult to sue the US government, but at least Trump's actions will once again shine a spotlight on the authoritarianism of the Biden DOJ. Trump has been facing politically motivated charges for years but none have legitimately stuck to him except in the Biden-friendly media. It's time for Trump to strike back.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump knows this is a far-fetched legal claim, and he'll probably never actually file the suit — he'll just use the appearance of one to fundraise and continue his false accusations about being politically persecuted. Despite Cannon's actions, legal scholars consider this case the most damning against the former president and it's not done yet.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's federal criminal trial in the classified documents case will begin after Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.