04 October 2024

Daily Newsletter

New Zealand: Google Will Block Local News if Forced to Pay Publishers

The Facts

  • Google has claimed it will block local news in New Zealand if its government proceeds with new legislation that would force it to pay publishers for news.

  • In a press release, Google New Zealand Country Director Caroline Rainsford claimed that the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill 'is not the right approach' for fostering a sustainable future of news.


The Spin

Narrative A

Despite being presented as a vital lifeline for struggling local news outlets, New Zealand's bill is merely a way to reap a potential windfall of tens of millions for media firms. A cash grab giving ministers brazen power to decide which tech giants must pay up, this legislation continues to be rammed through parliament despite facing widespread skepticism.

Narrative B

The Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill could potentially revolutionize New Zealand's media landscape. It would compel tech giants like Google and Meta to negotiate fair compensation for the use of local news content. It addresses a glaring market distortion where these behemoths profit from quality local journalism without adequate remuneration. The bill aims to rebalance the digital ecosystem, potentially injecting much-needed funds into struggling newsrooms.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that an act such as the JCPA will significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Dockworkers End Strike

The Facts

  • Some 45K US dockworkers have ended their three-day strike after the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a deal on Thursday.

  • While the ILA wanted a 77% wage increase over six years, and USMX offered a nearly 50% hike, the two sides reportedly agreed to a 62% pay raise, increasing the average hourly port worker wage from $39 to $63 over that period.


The Spin

Narrative A

The US dockworkers' strike exposed the ugly underbelly of union monopolies. It threatened to paralyze trade and harm countless lower-paid workers across industries, demonstrating how unchecked union power can lead to extortion-like tactics, ultimately hurting the very workers that the unions claim to protect.

Narrative B

Don't let Thursday's tentative agreement lull you into believing US port problems are solved. The issue at the heart of the dispute, automation, remains heavily salient. It is an existential threat to well-paid workers and the strike was merely the opening salvo — this agreement merely bought the country some time.

Nerd narrative

There is a 22% chance the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Yazidi Woman Freed From Gaza After 10-Year Captivity

The Facts

  • After being abducted by the Islamic State (IS) ten years ago at the age of 11, a 21-year-old woman of the Yazidi religious minority group was freed from Gaza this week following a secret joint rescue mission conducted by the US, Israeli, and Iraqi governments.

  • The woman, Fawzia Sido, was kidnapped after IS took control of large parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014, killing 1.2K Kurdish-speaking Yazidis and enslaving thousands of women and girls—some were sold as sex slaves and others as child soldiers.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This hostage rescue is the clearest example of Western values and ambitions. As war rages in Gaza, the governments of the US, Israel, Iraq, and Jordan came together to save an innocent life. While groups like IS and Hamas seek to terrorize and destroy, Israel and its allies push for a safer, more peaceful Middle East for everyone in the region. As many others remain captive in Gaza, hopefully, these governments will achieve freedom for each one of them.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US and Israel are not the saviors of the Kurdish people. It was essentially Pres. George W. Bush who created IS, as he's the one who invaded Iraq, destabilized the country, and disbanded the Iraqi army, forcing half a million men into the hands of radical groups. And Israel, which relies heavily on Turkish oil, has allowed Turkey to commit genocide against the Kurds for years. None of these atrocities would've occurred if it weren't for the US-Israel war machine.

See sources

EU Votes in Favor of Extended PRC Electric Vehicle Tariffs

The Facts

  • The European Union (EU) has voted in favor of extending tariffs against Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) first enforced this summer for a period of five years.

  • Tariffs will continue to reach up to 36% in addition to the bloc's 10% car import duty and following a European Commission investigation beginning last year alleging Chinese-state subsidies create an unfair advantage in the EV market.


The Spin

Pro-China narrative

There's no need to be afraid of Beijing or its EV technology. Yet, as China opens up its manufacturing sector to foreign investment and seeks partnership with Europe, the West continues to spread fear and anxiety over the PRC's increasingly important place in the world. Today's decision by the EU is a step backward for international collaboration and the fight against climate change, with political agendas placed above world-leading innovation.

Anti-China narrative

Europe cannot run the risk of becoming overly dependent on China's industrial sector. Tariffs don't need to be a permanent solution, but for now, it's important for the EU to act from a position of strength. A message must be sent that while China doesn't need to be viewed as an adversary, the integrity and unity of bloc members will not be influenced by underpriced imported goods.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that less than 75% of EU imports of rare earth magnets will originate in China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Republican Liz Cheney Campaigns With Harris In Wisconsin

The Facts

  • On Thursday, former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney formally endorsed Vice Pres. Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Ripon, Wisconsin — known as the birthplace of the Republican Party.

  • Cheney, who lost her Wyoming seat to a Trump-endorsed candidate two years ago, said of Harris: "I know that she loves our country, and I know she will be a president for all Americans."


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Cheney's support for Harris demonstrates a principled stand against the threat Trump poses to democracy. Her willingness to put country over party exemplifies true patriotism and should inspire other conservatives to follow suit. This bipartisan effort is crucial for preserving American democratic institutions.

Republican narrative

Cheney's endorsement of Harris is a betrayal of conservative values and the Republican Party. Her actions only serve to divide the GOP and weaken its chances of victory in crucial swing states. True conservatives should remain united behind Trump to protect traditional American values and policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Scientists Discover Second Asteroid Impact From Dinosaur Extinction Era

The Facts

  • Scientists have discovered evidence of a second large asteroid impact that occurred around the same time as the dinosaur extinction event 66M years ago.

  • According to a study published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment on Thursday, the newly studied Nadir crater, located off the coast of Guinea in West Africa, is presumed to have been created by an asteroid estimated at 450-500 meters (492-547 yards) wide.


The Spin

Narrative A

This discovery is a game-changer for understanding Earth's history. Multiple giant asteroid impacts around the same time could have had a cumulative effect on the planet's climate and ecosystems — potentially explaining the severity of the mass extinction event. The detailed imaging of the Nadir crater provides valuable insights into impact processes and their consequences.

Narrative B

While the Nadir crater is significant, it's unclear if it rivals the Chicxulub impact. Its effects could have been localized and it may or may not have contributed significantly to global climate change or mass extinction. When discussing the end-Cretaceous extinction, the focus should remain on the cataclysmic Chicxulub event.

Narrative C

While scientists appear to be understanding the dinosaurs' abrupt extinction, the species was likely on its way out — albeit at a slower rate — without the help of a celestial attack. At the time, the Earth was cooling and turning widespread tropical climates into less vegetative climates. Like most species throughout Earth's history, dinosaurs likely lost their food source.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that before 2025, an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter will be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

WHO Approves First Mpox PCR Test

The Facts

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) has approved the first diagnostic test for mpox, formerly known as monkeypox. The PCR test detects "DNA from pustular or vesicular rash samples" from skin lesions, according to the agency.

  • The approval of the test, named Alinity m MPXV assay and developed by Abbott Laboratories, comes as the WHO is reviewing three diagnostic tests for emergency use.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Since the WHO declared mpox an emergency in August, the global health community has ramped up its public health regimens. While this robust program has included both testing and treatments, roadblocks — including vaccine hesitancy and lack of funding — still persist. It's now paramount that every country, particularly in Africa where the virus is endemic, begin looking for flu-like symptoms and conducting mass testing and vaccinations.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite the WHO's confidence, it appears the global health body is making all the same mistakes it did with COVID. We don't actually know if there are multiple strains, nor is it clear if this is an animal-to-human virus or a sexually transmitted disease. The world can't even rely on the efficacy of these emerging PCR tests, but what it can expect is for the WHO to push for experimental treatment mandates and censorship.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 27.8K confirmed cases of mpox in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Russia to Drop Taliban from Terrorist List

The Facts

  • The Kremlin has made "a principal decision" to remove the Taliban from its list of organizations designated as terrorists, Russian Special Presidential Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov announced Friday.

  • Following the latest round of consultations on Afghanistan in Moscow, Kabulov stated that Russia's foreign ministry and Federal Security Service "are putting finishing legal touches on the removal of the Taliban movement."


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

This is a welcome step, considering the Taliban could help Russia fight IS amid a rise in terrorist attacks on its soil. It's also essential to maintain pragmatic dialogue with the current Afghan movement to develop political, trade, and economic ties with Kabul and help Afghanis finally return to the broader regional family, maintain peace in the country, and improve its national economy.

Anti-Russia narrative

Any step toward dropping the Taliban from the list of designated terrorist organizations or recognizing the Taliban as Afghanistan's rightful government will only legitimize their oppression and create a catastrophic humanitarian situation. The Taliban must improve its human rights record to preserve the necessary space for dialogue, win international legitimacy, and rejuvenate the Afghan economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the US will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Employers Added 254K New Jobs in September

The Facts

  • The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced Friday that US employers added 254K new nonfarm jobs in September — 51K more than the average monthly gain of 203K over the prior 12 months.

  • The BLS also reported that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August to 4.1%.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

This is further evidence of a positive economy under Pres. Joe Biden and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris. This news comes on the heels of a solid report last week on the growth of the economy as a whole. Considering the economy in the past three-plus years has added almost twice as many jobs as it did between 2017 and 2019 under the Trump administration, Democrats should be celebrating.

Republican narrative

Of course, Democrats are going to celebrate this report based on the headlines, but average Americans must consider what this report shows beneath the surface. Unemployment is still rising and nearly a majority of new jobs created were in the government. Small businesses are hurting and — if elected president — Harris' policies will be detrimental to the economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that the US will enter a deflationary period before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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