Brazil Seeks Extradition of Alleged Rioters From Argentina
Brazil's Supreme Court said on Wednesday that Justice Alexandre de Moraes sent instructions for the federal government to request Argentina for the extradition of 63 Brazilians who were convicted in connection with the Jan. 8, 2023, riots in Brasília.
This comes in response to a request from the Federal Police and follows a letter asking for confirmation that 143 "fugitives" were located in Argentina amid a surge in Brazilian citizens applying for refuge in Argentina after Pres. Javier Milei took office.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's no coincidence that fugitive rioters who stormed government buildings in Brasília have sought haven in Javier Milei's Argentina, given that the transnational far-right was behind this failed coup attempt in Brazil. If the rule of law and friendly diplomatic relations are to prevail, Buenos Aires should grant these possible extradition requests.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings in Brasília was relatively peaceful despite some property damage to furniture and artwork — and protesters never intended to stage a military coup. Mainstream media has promoted a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions on their own.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Water Crisis Threatening World Food Production
According to a report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, the global water crisis will threaten more than half of the world's food production by 2050.
The OECD-backed report published on Thursday also found that water shortages may cut high-income nations' gross domestic product (GDP) by 8%.
Narrative A
Clean water, essential for life, is already beyond reach for billions of people worldwide. The situation is worsening, as climate change and population growth strain already limited resources. For every 1.8°F rise in global temperature, we lose 20% of our renewable water resources. This problem transcends borders, sometimes sparking international tensions, yet global coordination to address this crisis remains inadequate.
Narrative B
We can protect and restore natural water sources like wetlands and forests while dramatically improving agricultural water efficiency through drip irrigation. Cities must fix leaky infrastructure that wastes trillions of gallons yearly with creative solutions like water recycling and rainwater harvesting. Most importantly, we need integrated approaches that recognize water's connection to climate, food, and energy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 37% chance that humanity will (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy Outlaws Overseas Surrogacy
In an 84-58 vote on Wednesday, the Italian parliament passed a bill banning residents from conceiving a child via surrogacy in foreign countries.
A national ban on surrogacy has been in place for two decades, with the latest extension carrying penalties of up to two years in prison and a fine of up to €1M ($1.1M).
Conservative narrative
Surrogacy has no place in Italy. Besides the very real risks that this practice poses to women and children's health, it also raises serious ethical concerns It commodifies human life, completely disregards children's well-being, and often exploits women in vulnerable situations. This legislation shows that the Italian government is in line with the Catholic Church.
Progressive narrative
Despite surrogacy already being outlawed in Italy, Meloni's government has sought to impose yet another crackdown on LGBTQ+ families, and this bill makes it nearly impossible for gay men to have children. Italy already ranks low in Europe in terms of civil freedoms. Making it unlawful for Italians to start a family through surrogacy overseas will not help Italy's standing.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance the first cloned human will be born in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Harris Claims Her Presidency Would 'Not Be a Continuation' of Biden's
In her first interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris claimed that her prospective administration would "not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency."
During the interview, conducted by Fox News host Bret Baier, Harris stated that "like every new president" she would present "fresh and new ideas," as the nominee labeled herself as representing a "new generation of leadership."
Democratic narrative
Bret Baier is supposed to be Fox News' most objective and fair reporter, but this time around he chose to be combative rather than journalistic. Despite the fact that he peddled false Republican talking points, Harris remained focused on contrasting her positive vision for the future with Trump's public promises to target his political opponents. With polls showing this to be a tight race, exposing this contrast will only be in Harris' favor.
Republican narrative
Harris's painful interview with Fox is a reminder to all Americans that, despite the Democrats' best attempts, the last three and a half years cannot be forgotten. Unable to provide any substance as to why her administration would be any different and still not providing important context about Biden's cognitive state, it would be foolish to believe that the White House would be any better under Harris.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Court Sentences Former Mexican Security Chief Over Cartel Bribes
US District Judge Brian Cogan sentenced Genaro García Luna, Mexico's security chief between 2006 and 2012, to 460 months — or more than 38 years — in jail and a $2M fine on Wednesday.
Federal prosecutors had sought life imprisonment for the chief architect and public face of Mexico's war on drugs under the presidency of Felipe Calderón after he was found guilty of aiding cartels in exchange for millions of dollars in bribes.
Narrative A
The conviction and sentencing of García Luna marks a watershed moment in Mexico's fight against drugs and corruption, exposing the profound betrayal at the highest levels of Mexican law enforcement. This case validates long-held suspicions about state collusion with drug cartels — potentially forcing Mexico to reckon with its costly and controversial war on drugs.
Narrative B
A dedicated family man and law enforcement official who spent his career fighting crime, García Luna was brought down by the testimony of convicted criminals seeking revenge or lighter sentences. Given that prosecutors presented no documentary evidence to corroborate claims of bribery, this lawsuit raises troubling questions about the reliability of evidence in high-profile drug cases.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada and India Trade Barbs as Diplomatic Row Widens
The row between Canada and India has deepened this week as the countries traded fresh barbs over the 2023 killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil.
On Wednesday, speaking at a public inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian politics, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of making a "massive mistake," doubling down on his country's allegation that Indian agents had a part to play in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023.
Pro-establishment narrative
Canada wished to handle this in a responsible way. Still, in that process, India made a big mistake in thinking that the Canadian government could allow violence on its citizens and violations of its sovereign territory to go unpunished. Rather than work with Canada, the Indian government's approach was to question Canada's democracy.
Establishment-critical narrative
As Trudeau himself admitted, he made these outlandish accusations without hard evidence, but on the back of intelligence reports he is unable to produce. How can India cooperate if Canada cannot share evidence behind its claims?
Nerd narrative
There is an 85% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel: Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Killed in Rafah
The Israeli military said on Thursday that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israeli forces in Rafah on Wednesday. Israeli forces reportedly saw a group of gunmen enter a building, calling in a strike. After assessing the aftermath, a body resembling Sinwar was found.
A DNA sample was taken to confirm that the body was Sinwar. Media reports in the past indicated that Sinwar was among Israeli hostages, but the Israeli army noted that no hostages were in the area. Hamas has not yet commented on the news.
Pro-establishment narrative
Sinwar's death will be a good opportunity to restart negotiations and work toward a cease-fire that ends this war. US officials have spent months frustrated with the lack of progress in Doha and Cairo, but now, though things are still uncertain, there is a real chance that peace can come at last.
Pro-Israel narrative
The world will be a better place without Yahya Sinwar in it. Though his death may not lead to Hamas' collapse or the end of this war, the primary mastermind behind the group's Oct. 7 massacres is gone. Justice has been served.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Sinwar's life and death demonstrate why his reported killing will not be the end of Palestinian resistance. Born in one of Gaza's dense refugee camps to a family ethnically cleansed from what is now Ashkelon, Sinwar dedicated his life to fighting Israel. Israel's war on Gaza has likely created a thousand Yahya Sinwars.
Report: US Treasury Has Used AI to Catch $1B in Fraud This Year
The US Dept. of the Treasury used artificial intelligence to recover $1B in check fraud during the 2024 fiscal year, as well as other types of fraud, bringing the total amount recovered to $4B, or six times that recovered last year. The figures were reported by CNN based on estimates shared by the Treasury.
A Treasury official said the agency used AI to find "hidden patterns" of fraud, though exactly how AI was used was not disclosed. This saved an additional $2.5B by preventing high-risk transactions and $500M from "risk-based" screenings.
Narrative A
While we must be cautious around these novel technologies, this news should excite every American taxpayer who wants their money well cared for and spent. With machine learning, AI can constantly improve its skills to detect patterns of fraud in milliseconds. We'll always need humans to ensure proper use, but with the help of AI, criminals should prepare for a hard road ahead — and taxpayers should rest assured that their contributions are well taken care of.
Narrative B
While the government offers nice platitudes about using AI for good while restraining its bad aspects, the truth is that the corporations that own these technologies also own the government. The US federal government, which played a significant role in funding AI development, is now handing it over to corporations to control every aspect of our lives. The interrelationship between the public sector and Silicon Valley's AI complex needs close scrutiny.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that an artificial intelligence will be mentioned in a constitution of a major sovereign country by May 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia: Northern Territory Returns Jailing Age to 10
The new Country Liberal Party government of Australia's Northern Territory (NT), which was elected in August, has lowered the minimum jailing age back to 10.
The move comes after the previous Liberal government, which lost to the Country Liberal Party in the August election, had raised the age from 10 to 12.
Right narrative
The Northern Territory voted overwhelmingly for the Country Liberal Party because they were worried about crime taking over their communities. Not only did voters want the jailing age brought back to 10, but also for police to be given the necessary resources. Chief Minister Finocchiaro is making decisions on behalf of her constituents and is pursuing a wise policy during a youth violence crisis.
Left narrative
As young Indigenous children around Australia continue to face inhumane jailing policies, politicians still seem determined to go against the evidence and keep inhumane criminal justice laws in place. Indigenous communities have proven that their separate justice programs work well, but they can't implement them if the government keeps putting their children in jail.
Nerd narrative
There's a 69% chance that when the Coalition next governs Australia it will be in the majority, according to the Metaculus prediction community.