13 November 2024

Daily Newsletter

UK: Archbishop Justin Welby Resigns Over Church Abuse Cover-up

The Facts

  • After last week suggesting he wouldn't resign, Justin Welby has stepped down as Archbishop of Canterbury. This comes following the publication of a damning report, suggesting Welby failed to act when informed over a decade ago of abuses committed by barrister John Smyth.

  • Smyth reportedly abused approximately 130 boys and young men, subjecting them to brutal physical, psychological, and sexual attacks spanning five decades across three countries.


The Spin

Narrative A

The resignation of Justin Welby was absolutely justified — the Archbishop's failure to intervene in Smyth's abuses constituted complicity with his brutal and heinous crimes. However, having taken responsibility for his failings, we must now look ahead to consider who may take Welby's place. There are several impressive, eligible candidates who could soon be leading the Church of England and influencing Christians around the world.

Narrative B

Welby's undignified resignation cannot merely be skirted over with dialogue about a potential successor. This latest series of events highlights the Church of England's dwindling status in modern society, and the ousting and moral condemnation of its most senior figurehead may come to be the nail in the coffin for the CoE's influence in an increasingly agnostic world.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 21% of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Argentina's Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

The Facts

  • Argentina's monthly consumer inflation fell from 3.5% in September to 2.7% in October — its lowest level since November 2021. The annual rate also slipped below 200% for the first time since last November, according to data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos.

  • The economy ministry said the figures, published Tuesday, are "consistent with a deepening [of] the disinflation process." Consumer prices in Argentina reportedly rose 107% in the first 10 months of the year and have risen 193% over the past 12 months.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite inheriting an economy ravaged by 211% inflation, Pres. Milei's bold "shock therapy" is bearing fruit in Argentina. His uncompromising focus on balancing budgets and ending money printing has driven inflation down dramatically. While the path has been painful, with necessary recession and spending cuts, the strategy's success is evident in renewed mortgage lending and surprising economic growth.

Pro-establishment narrative

Argentina's economic challenges lie beyond just inflation. These include deep-seated fiscal deficits, repeated debt defaults, and a reliance on currency controls that distort trade and investment, and increase poverty. Milei is addressing these issues by cutting subsidies and public spending, yet these austerity measures risk public backlash and economic contraction. Structural reforms and eventual dollarization are Milei's goals, but they require cautious navigation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Picks Musk, Ramaswamy to Lead Dept. of Govt. Efficiency

The Facts

  • Pres.-elect Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the former US president's second administration.

  • In a statement, Trump said that DOGE will "dismantle Government Bureaucracy" and "provide advice and guidance from outside of Government," adding Musk's and Ramaswamy's work will end "no later" than July 4, 2026.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Musk, Ramaswamy, and Hegseth's jobs are clear — to break the establishment status quo, disrupt the political norms that have damaged America, and deliver a federal government that truly acts on behalf of the people. For too long, the swamp of bureaucratic red tape and an entrenched belief in forever wars have benefited the interests of the few over the many. With these appointments, Trump will be a breath of fresh air and finally jolt the country back in the right direction.

Democratic narrative

Underneath the irony of Trump's decision to place two individuals in charge of DOGE lies deep concern over the appointments made by the pres.-elect. While Musk has been demoted to a job that won't exist in 18 months, placing government contractors in charge of federal spending oversight is disastrous. Alongside the appointment of a Fox host lacking any profound political experience as defense secretary, the writing on the wall is that cracks will soon appear in the Trump administration — even before Inauguration Day.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Elon Musk will hold a major political office in the US before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Jury Finds Military Contractor Liable for Abu Ghraib Prison Abuse

The Facts

  • Three former detainees of the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq were on Wednesday awarded a total of $42M in damages after a US jury found a military contractor liable for the abuse and torture they endured.

  • Plaintiffs Suhail Al Shimari, Salah Al-Ejaili, and Asa’ad Al-Zubae — a middle school principal, a journalist, and a fruit vendor — were each awarded $3M in compensatory damages and $11M in punitive damages after they testified that they were subjected to beatings, sexual abuse, and other cruelty at the prison.


The Spin

Narrative A

This is a landmark win for Iraqi torture survivors who resiliently fought their case for 16 years despite relentless efforts by CACI to absolve itself of its complicity in the crimes. This ruling sends a clear signal that contractors will be held responsible for abuses of human rights.

Narrative B

CACI has been wrongly affiliated with the reckless actions of US military police. The firm did not take part in the abuse and played no role in facilitating it. This is proven by the fact that no court has ever charged CACI employees with such conduct. This was the wrong decision by the jury and will be appealed.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the US will close the Guantánamo Bay detention camp by May 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Libya Introduces Morality Police to Enforce 'Traditions'

The Facts

  • Libya's UN-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) has announced the reinstatement of morality police to enforce modesty and traditions to reverse the alleged influence of imported European fashion and trends.

  • The GNU interior minister, Emad al-Tarabulsi, said that patrols — set to start next month — will target certain haircuts, prevent gender mixing in public spaces, and ensure that women and girls starting from age nine wear head coverings.


The Spin

Narrative A

Libya's proposed morality police threaten citizens' fundamental freedoms, especially targeting women's autonomy and equality. Steps such as compulsory veiling of young girls, enforcing male guardianship for travel, and policing personal choices dangerously intensify restrictions on freedom of expression, privacy, and self-determination.

Narrative B

Libya aims to safeguard traditional values, focusing on curbing Western influences, social media trends, and behaviors seen as threats to cultural identity. Many citizens support the planned measures to defend against globalization, reinforce social standards, and strengthen Libya's cultural identity amid societal shifts.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Libya will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by February 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Canada Women's Soccer Coach Fired Over Olympic Drone Spying Scandal

The Facts

  • Canada Soccer terminated its women's head coach Bev Priestman and two staff members following an independent investigation that confirmed their reported involvement in using drones to spy on opponents, including at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

  • The scandal emerged when New Zealand defender Rebekah Stott spotted a drone during training in Saint-Etienne, France, prompting FIFA to fine Canada Soccer $228K.


The Spin

Narrative A

Using a drone to surveil another team during a closed practice is cheating and undermines the integrity of the game. The drone incident represents a past pattern of unacceptable culture and insufficient oversight that requires urgent reform within the national teams, necessitating immediate leadership changes to restore integrity to the program.

Narrative B

Priestman's sacking is unfair, as the review found no evidence that Canadian players had viewed footage from the drone. The investigation's limited scope in examining past tournaments and administrators shows that Priestman has been made a scapegoat to cover up for a systematic, years-long spying operation.

See sources

Pres. Joe Biden Hosts Pres.-Elect Donald Trump at the White House

The Facts

  • Pres.-elect Donald Trump met Pres. Joe Biden in the Oval Office Wednesday after the incumbent US leader invited the former president to the White House for a traditional transition meeting.

  • They reportedly discussed plans for a peaceful transition of power when Trump takes the oath of office for a second time on Jan. 20. "It will be as smooth as it can get, and I very much appreciate that, Joe," Trump, 78, told Biden, 81.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Trump's heroic return to the White House is a symbolic moment for the MAGA movement, having engineered the greatest political comeback in American history. Despite the best attempts of the deep state establishment, it is clear that nothing could stop Pres. Trump from returning to office to finish what he started. After both Biden and Harris accused Trump of lie after lie for years and years, today will be a bitter day for Democrats and a moment of celebration for freedom-loving Americans.

Democratic narrative

The White House transition meeting represents a crucial tradition that reinforces the strength of American democracy and ensures continuity of government operations. These discussions between incoming and outgoing leaders have historically helped bridge political divisions and demonstrate national unity. The practice has proven valuable for smooth transitions, and it is an act of patriotism that Biden has chosen to forgive Trump's actions in 2020 and prioritize country over party today.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Reports: Jack Smith to Resign Before Trump Enters White House

The Facts

  • US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) special counsel Jack Smith, who has been leading two federal cases against the now Pres.-elect Donald Trump for two years, is reportedly going to resign from his position before Trump takes office in late January.

  • Multiple news outlets said that Smith's office is working on a plan to finish the investigations and file a report of his findings and decisions, as Trump has pledged to fire the special counsel within "two seconds" of taking office.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Through his unfortunate win at the ballot box, Trump has officially avoided facing justice for the severe crimes he was headed to trial for. If the election of a convicted felon wasn't enough, the American people must now watch Smith's years-long investigation crumble before their eyes. Trump will now also be in charge of the DOJ, which means justice-seeking lawyers like Smith will be fired from the federal government.

Republican narrative

If justice were to actually prevail in this case, Jack Smith would face charges upon his departure from the DOJ. Smith, at the direction of Garland and Pres. Biden, unlawfully indicted Trump and sought to imprison him before the American people could elect their preferred candidate. At the very least, he should be required not to destroy any documents related to the witch hunts he brought against Trump.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Palau President Criticizes China as Re-election Confirmed

The Facts

  • Following the confirmation of his re-election on Wednesday, the pro-Western president of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr., reaffirmed his criticism of China's maritime claims and accused it of violating the sovereignty of his Pacific island nation.

  • According to Whipps Jr., who defeated his brother-in-law 5,626 to 4,103 in the Nov. 5 election, Chinese vessels continue to enter Palau’s waters uninvited, with the latest incursion allegedly occurring on Tuesday.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

Pacific nations must follow the path of Palau, which is aligning itself with a friendly ally, the US, against an ever-encroaching adversary in China. By banding together, these smaller countries can gain leverage against larger powers that often overlook their sovereignty. China will only continue its bully tactics until it faces a fully capable regional partnership.

Pro-China narrative

Whipps Jr. has a history of making false accusations against China, all of which are intended to make China look like an aggressor as he grows closer to the US. Beijing has always followed maritime law and, regarding Palau specifically, sought mutually beneficial economic partnerships. China respects Palau's sovereignty, so Palau should do the same with respect to the Chinese territory of Taiwan.

See sources

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