SpaceX's Starship Explodes Mid-Flight Over Atlantic Ocean
SpaceX's seventh Starship test flight, launched from Boca Chica, Texas, on Thursday, failed after the upper-stage spacecraft was lost approximately eight minutes into the flight. However, it was able to successfully repeat the feat of catching the Super Heavy booster back at the launchpad.
The 403-foot-tall rocket, carrying 10 dummy satellites, experienced what SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk described as an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall, leading to a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" during its ascent burn.
In a video posted on X (formerly Twitter), Musk shared a preliminary analysis about what might have caused the spacecraft to explode mid-flight at an altitude of 90 miles (146 km) and said, "Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed!"
Pro-establishment narrative
The successful catch of the Super Heavy booster demonstrates significant progress in SpaceX's reusability goals. The collection of vital test data, even from failures, advances the development of reliable space transportation systems. The company's rapid iteration approach and willingness to push engineering limits show promising advancement toward commercial space travel.
Establishment-critical narrative
The loss of another Starship prototype raises concerns about the program's reliability and safety, particularly given the disruption to commercial aviation and the potential risks of falling debris. The repeated failures highlight the challenges of developing such an ambitious spacecraft and question the feasibility of future lunar missions and eventual Mars colonization.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that SpaceX's Starship will carry a human to orbit by July 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Moon Added to List of Threatened Heritage Sites
New York-based non-profit World Monuments Fund placed the moon on a list of threatened heritage sites on Wednesday, citing potential risk of commercial looting and destruction.
The organization claimed that rampant tourism would risk 90 lunar sites, including the Apollo landing site. The listing was announced the same day that SpaceX launched two private lunar landers.
The inclusion also comes as NASA's Artemis III mission plans to land the first astronauts on the lunar surface since the 1970s and aims to build a permanent settlement on the Earth's natural satellite.
Narrative A
Unregulated lunar mining and infrastructure projects could irreparably damage scientifically unique sites. The moon boasts locations ideal for radio telescopes, cold traps valuable for infrared astronomy, and craters holding ancient ice crucial for understanding the origins of water and life. Yet these risk destruction from commercial exploitation. Safeguarding such sites is crucial to ensuring humanity's expansion into space — groundbreaking scientific discovery cannot be sacrificed for corporate profit.
Narrative B
In a burst of cosmic hubris, humanity now seeks to classify the moon — a lifeless, perilous expanse riddled with lethal dust, violent quakes, and deadly radiation — as a heritage site needing protection, as if Earth's fragile species could truly shield a celestial body. Our brief lunar visits, totaling mere days, have offered little grasp of its deadly risks. Yet, we overestimate our reach, mistaking fleeting landings for mastery, and a barren rock for a strategic prize worth racing over.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 15 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Divest-Or-Ban Law
The Supreme Court of the US rejected on Friday an appeal from video sharing app TikTok that sought to block the implementation of a law banning the app in the US unless it sold the platform, with justices citing national security concerns in their unanimous judgment.
In their decision, the judges said that while 170M Americans used the Chinese-owned TikTok as a "distinctive and expansive outlet for expression," the concerns of Congress regarding data collection and its relationship with the Chinese government were "well-supported."
Lawyers for the app and their Chinese parent company, Bytedance, argued that the law violated the First Amendment rights of the company. The law requires Bytedance to divest from TikTok or face an app store and hosting ban effective Jan. 19.
Pro-establishment narrative
The TikTok divestment bill passed Congress with broad bipartisan margins, and it is right for the Supreme Court to uphold the law. TikTok has been documented spying on journalists and harvesting broad swathes of information, and it could use its powerful algorithm to shift US public opinion. Given the fact that few American social media firms are allowed in China, this law corrects this asymmetry and makes the country more secure.
Establishment-critical narrative
This decision saw the Supreme Court stifle free speech in an unprecedented way and stir up anti-China hysteria. A hypothetical threat to national security is no threat at all, and there is scant evidence to support claims that TikTok is spying on Americans. This decision is specious given the dearth of privacy regulations for Americans and the unwillingness of the current and future administrations to enforce it.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that TikTok won't be available in the United States on December 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK, Poland Discuss Potential Security Pact
Following a previous visit to Ukraine, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer traveled to Warsaw, Poland, on Friday to initiate talks with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk over a new UK-Poland defense and security treaty.
The proposed treaty aims to strengthen military cooperation between the two nations to counter Russian "aggression," combat people-smuggling operations, "tackle disinformation and hybrid threats," and secure energy supplies across Europe.
As part of the economic component, Polish company InPost announced a £600M ($731M) investment in the UK, potentially creating up to 12K new jobs. This would bring their total UK investment to £1B ($1.2B) by 2029, according to the British government.
Pro-establishment narrative
Poland's increased military capabilities are essential for Europe's defense against Russian aggression, with reciprocal support between Poland, the UK, and other European nations equally as crucial. Positioned on NATO's eastern flank, Poland serves as a vital bulwark. Cooperation and mutual investment in defense ensure collective strength — deterring threats and safeguarding European stability.
Establishment-critical narrative
The UK and US push for prolonged conflict with Russia ignores Poland's growing call for peace, with most Polish residents favoring an end to the war, even at Ukraine's expense. While Poland would bear the economic and logistical burdens of war, the UK continues its belligerence — even suggesting sending troops to Ukraine. Peace and diplomacy, not a proxy war, are vital to ending this conflict and maintaining Europe's stability.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that combat troops from any NATO country will be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Ratifies Hamas Cease-Fire Deal
Israel ratified a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas early on Saturday morning following approval from its security cabinet just hours earlier. The deal is set to come into force on Sunday.
The phased agreement, which will pause the 15-month conflict in Gaza, includes a six-week truce and involves the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
Additionally, it requires Israel to partially withdraw its military forces and allow increased humanitarian aid into Gaza, with negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict to begin during the initial phase.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though Hamas, in many cases, was the main obstacle to achieving an end to this terrible war, the Biden admin. is proud of its role in mediating. With a deal agreed upon, the hostages will return home and Israel will be more secure. Though Israel has had to make hard decisions, it will be worth it when peace is finally achieved.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though Israel wants nothing more than to see all the hostages released, this deal may not be in the country's best interest. In the past, Palestinian prisoners released by Israel have played critical roles in terrorist plots against the country. Indeed, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' slain leader, was a security prisoner released in an exchange deal. Israel may pay for this deal in blood many years down the road.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though a cease-fire is long overdue, Gaza has been destroyed. Indeed, the Israel-Palestinian "conflict" is not over, and Israel's occupation and apartheid system will remain. However, this war has proved that the Palestinian cause cannot be dealt with via security measures or normalization agreements between Arab autocrats and Israel. Regardless of what happens next, Palestinians will continue to struggle for their liberation.
Narrative D
In the eternally unpredictable Middle East, there's no certainty that the deal will go as planned or the bloodshed will end immediately. Since it's the result of the political infighting in the US, the cease-fire is likely to fail by Sunday. Nonetheless, the solution isn't a temporary pause in fighting but a just and lasting settlement for Palestinians and Israelis alike.
Nerd narrative
There's a 12% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made toward a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
IMF Warns Trump Tariffs Could Spark Global Economic Turmoil
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for global growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, while raising the US growth projection to 2.7% for 2025, a 0.5% jump from its previous estimate, which would be the top performing of all developed countries.
However, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook warns that US Pres.-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, including a 10% global import tariff, 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 60% on Chinese goods, could disrupt global supply chains and increase inflation.
Global inflation is expected to decrease from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and further drop to 3.5% in 2026, though these forecasts don't account for potential policy changes under the incoming Trump administration.
Left narrative
Trump’s tariff threats absolutely risk igniting a global economic downturn. His retaliation schemes, which he plans to wage from China and the EU to Mexico and Canada, are likely to escalate trade wars, harming US adversaries and allies alike. Studies show that US GDP losses could hit half a trillion dollars, causing higher consumer costs and crippling industries reliant on imports. Global collaboration — not isolation — offers a wiser path.
Right narrative
Trump’s tariffs are meant to enforce national priorities, ranging from economic growth to immigration. Without taking office yet, he's already pressured Canada and Mexico on border security, securing commitments like a $1.3B investment from Ottawa. He's not using tariffs for the sake of using tariffs — he's using them as a diplomatic tool to boost the national economy and uphold American values, addressing issues from free speech to treaty violations.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the average tariff on goods entering the US for Q4 2025 will be at least 4.34%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden: Equal Rights Amendment Should be Seen as Ratified
US Pres. Joe Biden declared on Friday that the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) — which bans sex-based discrimination — should be considered the 28th Amendment to the Constitution, though this proclamation carries no legal force.
The ERA's journey began in 1972 when Congress sent it to states for ratification with a 1979 deadline, later extended to 1982, but it wasn't until 2020 that Virginia became the 38th state to ratify it, reaching the three-fourths requirement. Since then six states have withdrawn their support for the measure's ratification.
The National Archives, led by Archivist Colleen Shogan, maintains that the ERA cannot be certified due to established legal, judicial, and procedural decisions, particularly regarding the missed ratification deadline.
Democratic narrative
The ERA has cleared all necessary constitutional hurdles and represents the will of the American people through state ratification. The amendment would guarantee equal rights regardless of sex and strengthen protections for all Americans. It is high time that this amendment is ratified and the equal rights of all sexes are enshrined in the US Constitution.
Republican narrative
The ratification deadline established by Congress was legally binding and has long expired. Court decisions at both District and Circuit levels have confirmed the validity of these deadlines. The archivist cannot legally publish the ERA without further congressional action or court intervention. This statement carries no legal weight and is nothing more than a cynical attempt to rile up the outgoing president's base as he leaves office.
Russia and Iran Sign Strategic Partnership Treaty
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and Iranian Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian signed a treaty at the Kremlin on Friday, creating a framework to expand military, economic, and security cooperation. The framework also pledges to counter common security threats without explicitly forming a mutual defense pact.
The treaty encompasses multiple sectors including defense, counter-terrorism, energy, finance, transport, industry, agriculture, culture, science, and engineering, with both nations seeking to strengthen their position against Western sanctions.
Both nations face significant international challenges, with Russia seeking allies amid its ongoing Ukraine conflict and Iran dealing with regional setbacks — including the fall of ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and conflicts involving Hamas and Hezbollah.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia and Iran, not to mention North Korea and China, are forming a dangerous bloc of threats to the Western world by deepening military and economic ties. Not only do their strategic alliances enable aggression in Ukraine and beyond, but their military tech sharing strengthens each state individually. By undermining Western influence, these partnerships could lead to increased control over power in Eurasia, challenging liberal democracy and security.
Establishment-critical narrative
The idea that Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are a significant threat to the West is overstated. If anyone is planning to initiate conflict with one of these countries, especially Iran, it's the US, with the aim of economically weakening China. With the US readying itself for increased aggression to maintain its global dominance, it makes sense that Russia and its new allies are preparing to defend themselves. If the US continues on this path, it will collapse the global economy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 9% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ex-Central Banker Carney Launches Bid for Canadian Prime Minister
Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, Thursday officially launched his campaign to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and prime minister.
The 59-year-old economist is entering the race following Trudeau's Jan. 6 resignation announcement with the new Liberal leader to be chosen on March 9. Carney will face competition from former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
In announcing his run, Carney emphasized his economic credentials, including steering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis as central bank governor, and managing Brexit's economic impact while heading the Bank of England.
Left narrative
Carney is an outsider who offers Canada a fresh start. Having successfully managed multiple financial crises, he's a promising contender for Canada's economy. In addition, his international experience will help him deal with Trump's tariff threats, as well as global climate change initiatives.
Right narrative
Despite positioning himself as an outsider, Carney is deeply connected to the Liberal establishment as a longtime advisor to Trudeau's government. He supports controversial policies — including carbon pricing — and lacks the political experience needed to lead the country through its current challenges.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.