Trump Inks Four New Executive Orders, Including Plans to Build 'Iron Dome'
US Pres. Donald Trump unveiled four new executive orders targeting America's military on Monday. They were announced at a retreat for Republican lawmakers at Trump's South Florida golf resort, before later being inked aboard Air Force One.
The first of the orders instructs the newly confirmed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to submit plans for a "next-generation missile defense shield" — labeled by Trump "the Iron Dome for America" — within 60 days, including the capability to shoot down missiles from space.
Such a plan — which became known as "Star Wars" in the 1980s— was first attempted by Pres. Ronald Reagan, but its implementation failed due to technological limitations and spiraling costs.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump's decision to create an Iron Dome for America is about ensuring it stays ahead of its adversaries and can further peace from a position of strength. The other moves will ensure that the US military continues to defend the homeland by continuing to be the most efficient and lethal fighting force.
Left narrative
Trump is continuing with his raft of damaging and wrong-headed executive orders. He has baselessly claimed that transgender people are both medically and morally unfit to serve. Such a move will deplete the military of 15K perfectly capable service members.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that the US will deploy troops in Mexico without the Mexican government's cooperation before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Says Microsoft Considering Buying TikTok
US Pres. Donald Trump said Monday that Microsoft was looking to buy TikTok, the Chinese social media app that was asked to sell its US business by Jan. 19 or shut down. Trump, who extended the deadline for the ban, now wants a "bidding war" for TikTok.
On his way to Florida on Saturday, Trump said there was "great interest in TikTok." When asked on Monday if Microsoft was among its suitors, the president replied, "I would say yes," without naming all the potential companies involved.
Media reports have indicated that another interested buyer is Oracle, which already provides the short video platform with much of its infrastructure. Trump reportedly said earlier that he was "open" to Oracle founder Larry Ellison acquiring TikTok.
Narrative A
Microsoft's potential acquisition of TikTok could be a masterful strategic move. Given TikTok's massive youth-focused audience, the app's future growth is likely extraordinary. While ByteDance faces regulatory pressure to sell, Microsoft has both the means and the unique position of being relatively unconstrained by antitrust concerns — the match is ideal.
Narrative B
The thought of Microsoft acquiring TikTok raises significant concerns. Under Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella's leadership, the tech giant has flourished by focusing on enterprise software, and a pivot to social media seems oddly misaligned with this strategy. Microsoft's track record with consumer satisfaction is also subpar, and the tech giant has concerning ties to the US government.
Nerd narrative
There is a 43.3% chance TikTok will still be available in the US on Dec. 31, 2025, with a non-adversary owner, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India, China to Resume Direct Flights After 5-Year Freeze
India and China have reached an agreement in principle to resume direct commercial flights, which were suspended in early 2020 during the COVID pandemic and remained halted due to political tensions.
The announcement came after Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Monday, marking one of the most senior official visits since the 2020 border clash.
Prior to the suspension, approximately 500 monthly direct flights operated between China and India — with direct routes connecting Beijing and New Delhi in seven hours compared to current journeys requiring six to ten additional hours through transit locations.
Pro-China narrative
The flight agreement demonstrates China's commitment to improving bilateral relations and fostering mutual understanding. Beijing is emphasizing the need for both countries to work in the same direction and explore substantive measures for cooperation.
Narrative B
The resumption of direct flights represents a strategic shift in India's stance, following earlier resistance to Chinese requests for reestablishing air links due to border disputes and security concerns. This had previously led to restrictions on Chinese investments and bans on hundreds of Chinese apps — and a tenuous period between the two powers.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance there will be a China-India war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina's Border Fence Plan Sparks Tension with Bolivia
The Argentine province of Salta is planning to construct a 200-meter-long, 3.5-meter-high (656-foot by 11.5-foot) fence along the Bermejo River border with Bolivia in Aguas Blancas, as part of the broader Güemes Plan security initiative launched by Security Minister Patricia Bullrich.
The fence, extending from the Aguas Blancas bus terminal to the immigration office, will include reinforced concrete posts, barbed wire, and concertina wire, aimed at preventing unauthorized border crossings and illegal activities.
The initiative involves deploying 310 federal troops in critical areas, including the Bermejo River and National Route 34, known as the "drug route," with joint efforts between federal and provincial forces to combat drug trafficking and smuggling.
Right narrative
Argentina has become a porous nation with completely ineffective borders, which is why Pres. Milei's government is putting an end to the crisis. While a perimeter fence with Bolivia is a good start, the government must continue its security measures along the borders of every neighboring country. Illegal immigration and drug smuggling must be ended for good.
Left narrative
While preventing violence is a noble goal, Argentina would be going against its history of welcoming immigrants if it began demonizing migration. Immigrants, whether smuggled into the country or not, are an integral part of Argentine society and should be helped, not hindered in their efforts to join the country, its customs, and its economy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 58% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as President of Argentina before Jan. 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Serbian Prime Minister Resigns Amid Protests
Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević announced on Tuesday his "irrevocable" decision to step down from office amid months of protests over the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad Railway Station that killed 15 people in November.
He added that Pres. Aleksandar Vučić accepted his resignation after a long conversation, just one day after the president said that an "urgent and extensive reconstruction of the government" was being planned.
He is the third minister to quit in the wake of the disaster in Serbia's second-largest city that culminated in the resignation of Novi Sad mayor Milan Djuric as well. Local media reported that a cabinet session to decide on whether to appoint a new prime minister-designate or call early elections was to take place on Tuesday.
Establishment-critical narrative
Vučević hopes that his resignation will be enough to quell radical protests and avoid further foreign interference in Serbia. It's clear that the West, Croatia, and Albania are collaborating with the opposition in a push for a so-called color revolution to topple the government and destroy Serbia from within.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's certain that the resignation of Vučević was one of the initial demands of the protests months ago, but such a move is no longer likely to be enough to calm tensions and bring apolitical demonstrations to an end. Serbians aren't interested in politics, they simply want better institutions and less corruption.
Nerd narrative
There's a 38% chance that Serbia will be part of the European Union in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Agrees to Ease Syria Sanctions
European Union (EU) foreign ministers agreed on Monday to begin gradually lifting sanctions against Syria following the end of Bashar al-Assad's regime by rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in December.
The detail of the EU's roadmap was not made immediately available, although EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has previously mentioned easing restrictions on Syria's energy and transport sectors, as well as financial institutions.
Kallas however did state that the bloc would "scale up" humanitarian aid and recovery efforts. The High Representative also claimed that while the EU "aim[ed] to move fast," sanction relief would be reversed if "wrong steps were taken" by Syria.
Pro-establishment narrative
Lifting EU sanctions on Syria presents a critical opportunity for both Europe and the region. By removing these sanctions, the EU can support Syria's reconstruction, alleviate widespread poverty, and stabilize the economy. This would facilitate the import of essential goods, foster international investment, and encourage the return of refugees. In turn, this would prevent the resurgence of extremism, reduce foreign interference, and create a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East.
Establishment-critical narrative
History has shown that the fall of one dictatorship often leads to chaos, with new regimes replicating or even worsening the old regime's abuses. While the fall of Assad is seen as a victory, the rise of HTS raises concerns. Before lifting sanctions, HTS must demonstrate that it is fundamentally different from the Assad regime — particularly in terms of human rights and governance. Without clear reforms, easing sanctions could perpetuate the cycle of authoritarian rule.
Nerd narrative
There is an 80% chance that Syria will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to a Metaculus prediction community.
Trump DOJ Fires Prosecutors Who Led Criminal Cases Against Him
The US Justice Department (DOJ) has terminated more than a dozen prosecutors who worked on special counsel Jack Smith's criminal investigations of Pres. Donald Trump while he was out of office.
This comes as acting Attorney General James McHenry concluded that the fired prosecutors' would be unable to "faithfully" implement Trump's agenda since they played a "significant role" in the prior administrations' prosecutions of the president.
The fired officials were involved in two federal cases against Trump: One concerning classified documents retained at Mar-a-Lago, and another regarding his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. Both cases were dropped after Trump's 2024 election victory.
Republican narrative
Trump is fulfilling his promise to end the weaponization of law enforcement against political opponents. The next step should be to investigate — and prosecute when appropriate — those who went after Trump in order to send a message that this form of weaponization will no longer be tolerated.
Democratic narrative
Contrary to McHenry's claims, it's actually the current DOJ that's weaponizing the legal system to go after opponents. It's typically not the role of career DOJ employees to show unwavering loyalty to the president, but that's precisely what Trump is demanding, all while holding vengeful firings to maintain control.
Judge Blocks Trump Freeze on Federal Grants, Loans, Other Assistance
Federal Judge Loren AliKhan has granted an administrative stay in a case that contests a proposed massive pause of federal aid programs by the Trump administration. The stay averts the enforcement of the pause that would have gone into effect at 5:00 pm EST Tuesday and sets next Monday morning as the timeline to hear arguments.
This comes as the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a memo earlier Tuesday directing federal agencies to temporarily pause all activities related to federal grants, loans, and other forms of financial assistance — potentially affecting trillions in government funding.
The pause explicitly exempts Medicare, Social Security benefits, and assistance received directly by individuals, though the full scope of exemptions remains unclear.
Republican narrative
This pause is a necessary measure to ensure taxpayer dollars aren't wasted on programs that conflict with presidential priorities. The administration will also have time to assess how best to eliminate wasteful spending, especially when it comes to ideological initiatives that don't benefit average Americans.
Democratic narrative
This unprecedented and potentially illegal freeze violates Congress' power of the purse and will have devastating consequences for millions of Americans who rely on federal assistance — including grant funding and loans. The sweeping order threatens to disrupt critical services, while it also creates chaos for states, universities, and nonprofits.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US government will spend at least 37% as a percentage of GDP in 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
GSK, Oxford Launch $62M Cancer Prevention Vaccine Program
British pharmaceutical giant GSK has committed to investing £50M (US$62.2M) over at least three years in a partnership with the University of Oxford to research vaccines that could potentially prevent cancer before it fully develops.
The GSK-Oxford Cancer Immuno-Prevention Programme will focus on identifying and sequencing neoantigens, which are tumor-specific proteins that prompt the immune system to recognize cancer cells in their pre-cancerous stage. These neoantigens can then be targeted with drugs.
Research indicates that cancers can take up to 20 years or more to develop from normal cells to cancerous cells, with most cancers being invisible during the pre-cancer stage, making early intervention crucial.
Narrative A
Cancer vaccines could revolutionize the fight against one of the world's top killers, with the UK leading the charge. These vaccines are tailored to individual tumors, targeting specific cancer cell antigens not found on healthy cells. This precision would reduce side effects and boost efficacy. This program puts the nation at the forefront of this promising field, potentially turning cancer from a death sentence into a manageable condition.
Narrative B
While it's easy to support seemingly altruistic promises to cure cancer, the pharmaceutical and technology corporations behind these endeavors must be viewed with guarded optimism. For example, Oracle owner Larry Ellison has promised to create vaccines in just 48 hours just by using AI — an overly ambitious promise that clearly prioritizes quantity over quality. Given the industry's complicated history, it's essential to critically evaluate these innovations rather than accept them at face value.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by June 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.