Trump Wants Ukraine's Rare Earths in Exchange for Aid
US Pres. Donald Trump said Monday that he wants to strike a deal to access Ukraine's rare earths in exchange for continued US military aid.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office, Trump said: "We're looking to make a deal with Ukraine where they will secure what we're providing them with their rare earth materials and other resources."
He added that Ukraine — which contains large deposits of uranium, lithium, and titanium, among other rare-earth metals and minerals — has already signaled its willingness to make such an agreement.
Pro-Trump narrative
The US gives Ukraine billions in military aid every year. It's only right that the US gets something in return for these contributions and Trump will achieve this as part of his America First policy.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine is prepared to strike a deal on rare-earth minerals as long as security deals are provided to ensure these resources don't fall into Russian hands. Kyiv has made clear that its number one priority is maintaining support for its vital war effort against Russia's aggression.
Pro-Russia narrative
The lion's share of Ukraine's rare-earth minerals lie in eastern areas that are no longer under Kyiv's control. Ukraine is making the US false promises in the hopes of securing continued aid.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sudan: 65 Dead in Multiple Attacks
Fierce fighting in south and west Sudan killed at least 65 people and wounded more than 130 on Monday. Artillery fire in Darfur, South Kordofan's capital Kadugli, resulted in 40 deaths and 70 injuries, with the Sudanese army blaming the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) for targeting a local market.
A military air strike on South Darfur's capital Nyala on Monday killed 25 people and wounded 63 in the Cinema District, an area under Rapid Support Forces control, highlighting the intensifying conflict in western Sudan.
The United Nations migration agency reported that more than 600K people have been displaced from North Darfur, with 95 incidents occurring across the region, primarily in El-Fasher.
Narrative A
The Sudanese army has made significant advances in the capital, breaking Rapid Support Forces sieges on several bases and pushing the paramilitaries to the city's outskirts. The military is in strong control of the country's east and north, while working to secure its last foothold in the Darfur region. The army will achieve its objective and ensure stability for the Sudanese people.
Narrative B
The RSF holds sway over much of Darfur. The army is committing atrocities such as using barrel bombs against civilians in Nyala neighborhoods. Commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo has vowed to retake the capital — the RSF previously expelled the army and will do so again.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50.9% chance that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will emerge victorious in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Imposes 15% Tariff on US Imports
After US Pres. Donald Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese products took effect on Tuesday, Beijing retaliated by announcing 15% tariffs on US coal and liquefied natural gas, plus 10% tariffs on crude oil, farm equipment, and vehicles. The tariffs are set to take effect on Feb. 10.
According to an estimate by London-based research firm Capital Economics, Beijing's tariffs would apply to about $20B of annual imports from the US. Trump's tariff — intended to pressure the PRC on fentanyl control — reportedly targets over $450B worth of Chinese goods.
Additionally, Beijing launched an antitrust investigation into Google for suspected violation of its anti-monopoly and added PVH Group and Illumina to its unreliable entities list for violating "normal market trading principles."
Anti-China narrative
The tariffs serve as a powerful tool to protect American national security and force China to address the fentanyl crisis that has killed over 281K Americans in four years. Access to the American market is a privilege, and these measures will compel Beijing to crack down on illegal drug trafficking.
Pro-China narrative
The unilateral imposition of tariffs by the US seriously violates WTO rules and undermines normal economic cooperation. Beijing has already implemented strict counternarcotics policies, and Washington needs to address its domestic drug issues rather than threatening other nations with arbitrary tariff hikes.
Nerd narrative
There's an 11% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Quits UNHRC, Stops Funding UNRWA
On Tuesday, US Pres. Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the US from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and extend a funding ban on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which Israel has accused of aiding terrorism.
Trump's move on UNRWA, an agency the US has accused of aiding governments with human rights abuses, reinstates the policies of the Biden administration.
The Biden admin. froze UNRWA funding last year over its members' alleged involvement in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Since Trump took office, the US has withdrawn from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate deal as well.
Pro-establishment narrative
Trump’s decision to defund UNRWA and withdraw from the UNHRC is an essential step in ending US complicity in an agency that has long fueled extremism. UNRWA has been tied to Hamas, perpetuating incitement and violence rather than fostering peace. American taxpayers should not fund an entity that undermines Israel’s security and stability. By cutting the US' ties with it, Trump has upheld moral clarity, ensuring that aid does not sustain terror and instead supports true reform and accountability.
Establishment-critical narrative
Trump’s decision to pull US funding for UNRWA is a morally bankrupt act of collective punishment, abandoning millions of innocent Palestinians to starvation and disease. The justification — a handful of unproven accusations — defies the principles of due process, individual guilt, and basic humanity. This move directly sabotages the humanitarian aid the International Court of Justice has deemed essential. By appeasing Israeli political interests, the US fully has embraced complicity in the suffering inflicted upon the Palestinian people.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance Palestine will become a full UN member state by January 2042, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Reform Ahead of Labour for First Time in YouGov Poll
Reform UK has reached its highest polling position ever, securing 25% (+2%) of voter support in the latest YouGov/Times survey, surpassing Labour at 24% (-3%), and the Conservatives at 21% (-1%). The Liberal Democrats are placed fourth with 14% (no change), with the Greens sitting at 9% (no change).
The data comes from approximately 2.5K adults surveyed between Feb. 2-3. YouGov states that there is a nine in ten chance that the true value of party support lies within four points of the polling results, and a two-in-three chance that the true value lies within two points.
Reform UK's strongest support comes from male voters at 29%, working-class voters at 30%, and shows particular strength in the Midlands region with 33% support while maintaining lower numbers in London at 13%.
Left narrative
Reform UK taps into genuine working-class frustrations, exploiting real concerns about economic inequality and poor public services. But rather than offering constructive solutions, they rely on fear, division, and scapegoating vulnerable communities. If Starmer's Labour government fails to address these legitimate issues with meaningful reforms, it will leave the door wide open for Farage’s brand of populism to gain even more traction among those desperate for change.
Right narrative
Reform UK's surge in the polls is a clear sign that people are fed up with the same old establishment politics. For the first time in decades, there's a real alternative to the tired Tory and Labour parties. Under Nigel Farage’s leadership, Reform UK offers bold solutions to tackle the immigration crisis, restore British sovereignty, and rebuild the economy. This momentum shows the country is ready for real change, and it's time to get behind the movement that will deliver it.
Nerd narrative
There is a 7% chance that Nigel Farage will become UK Prime Minister before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Approximately 10 Shot at Swedish Adult School
Roughly 10 people have been shot at the Risbergska school for adults in Orebro, Sweden, according to police who termed the incident as "attempted murder, arson and an aggravated weapons offense."
Teacher Lena Warenmark reported hearing approximately 10 gunshots, noting that unusually few students were present as many had returned home after taking an exam earlier in the day.
The incident — which occurred at around 12:33 pm local time — prompted authorities to implement immediate lockdown procedures, evacuate nearby schools, and urge the public to stay away from the area.
Narrative A
While school shootings are rare in Sweden, nearly 300 shootings killed at least 44 people in 2024. Tuesday's attack highlights a serious escalation in Sweden's security challenges, coming amid an ongoing wave of gang-related violence and bombings that have plagued the country. It raises concerns about the safety of educational institutions and the need to close smuggling routes for illegal weapons.
Narrative B
It was a harrowing day for all of Sweden, especially for the adult education center that serves as a crucial institution for immigrants learning Swedish and vulnerable individuals completing their education. However, it's wrong to raise doubts and create panic when the police are still investigating the horrific crime.
Nerd narrative
There's a 92% chance that a terrorist attack in Sweden will cause at least one death before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
El Salvador Offers to House US Criminals
Following a meeting with El Salvador Pres. Nayib Bukele on Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed that El Salvador has offered to house convicted criminals from the US, including American citizens, in the country's mega-prison facility, Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CECOT), in exchange for a fee.
Rubio described the agreement as "the most unprecedented and extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world." El Salvador would accept deportees of any nationality, particularly members of criminal gangs, including MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.
El Salvador would charge the US a fee that Bukele described as "relatively low for the U.S. but significant for us, making our entire prison system sustainable."
Republican narrative
This is a groundbreaking solution to America's immigration challenges, helping Pres. Donald Trump fulfill his promise to rid the US of dangerous criminals, and do it in a cost-effective manner. Bukele has transformed El Salvador into one of the region's safest countries and now he can help the US be safer as well.
Democratic narrative
The proposal is likely unconstitutional and raises several issues related to international law. El Salvador's prisons are known for their human rights abuses, including mental and physical torture, and it's unthinkable that the US would send anyone to them in agreement with an authoritarian regime.
Report: Trump Plans Executive Order to Diminish Education Department
US Pres. Donald Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order aimed at significantly reducing the Department of Education's functions, though the agency cannot be abolished without congressional approval.
The department, established in 1979, currently serves more than 50M students in 98K public schools and 32K private schools, while providing financial assistance to 12M postsecondary students. The agency has over 4K employees and an $80B discretionary budget.
The administration has already begun reducing the department's workforce by placing dozens of employees on administrative leave and bringing in staff from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to examine internal operations.
Republican narrative
The Department of Education, created by Jimmy Carter to appease teachers' unions, should be abolished due to its inefficiencies and ideological overreach. Until then, Trump should minimize its scope by reassigning functions, like civil rights to Justice and loans to Treasury, and appoint a secretary who can challenge its anti-American policies. Not only would this align with his promise to return education to the states, but it would also end the DEI programs plaguing American schools.
Democratic narrative
Abolishing the department would cut vital funding like Title I, hurting low-income schools, special education, and nutrition programs. If Trump truly wanted to help school children, he would work to reform the department to reduce bureaucracy, empower local districts with block grants, and improve teacher recruitment with incentives and alternative certification. This would keep essential federal support intact while increasing local control.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that the US will disband the Department of Education through an act of Congress before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
OpenAI Expands in Asia With Kakao Deal
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced Tuesday a strategic partnership with South Korean tech giant Kakao to develop artificial intelligence (AI) products, marking its second major Asian alliance following a deal with Japan's SoftBank that includes a $3B annual commitment.
The collaboration will focus on developing a Korean-language assistant called Kanana, integrating OpenAI technology into the KakaoTalk messaging app — which commands 97% of South Korea's market share — and implementing ChatGPT Enterprise for Kakao's internal use.
Altman conducted meetings with leaders of major Korean tech companies, including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and SK Group to discuss potential contributions to the recently announced $500B Stargate data center project in the US.
Pro-establishment narrative
OpenAI is successfully expanding its investments and technological integration across the world. In Japan, its $500M investment from SoftBank with an additional $3B annual deal for AI services will help grow both OpenAI and its Japanese customers. Its partnership with South Korea's Kakao aims to enhance AI products, showing OpenAI's push toward global product integration. While other companies have created nice products, OpenAI is revolutionizing AI for everyone.
Establishment-critical narrative
While no one can deny OpenAI's success, its hyper-focus on billion-dollar investments is its main shortfall. China's DeepSeek, meanwhile, is achieving the same technological success while committing to the nonprofit philosophy that OpenAI was founded on but has since discarded. While American companies focus on corporate funding and export controls, Chinese firms have remained at the front of the AI race without playing dirty tricks or begging for corporate subsidies.
Nerd narrative
There is a 39% chance that OpenAI will top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.