Right narrative

Freedom is on the ballot in resource-rich Ecuador as there are only two routes for voters to choose — free market capitalism under Daniel Noboa or a narco-socialist dictatorship under Correa's surrogate Luisa González. Noboa needs a full presidential term to fight the Ecuadorian deep state and bring significant changes to the country.

Left narrative

After nearly a decade following neoliberal prescriptions, Ecuador now has a fragile state and an impoverished people. It's no wonder that drug trafficking and organized crime have skyrocketed — that's part of the local elites' strategy to control society. Noboa must be voted out of office.

Pro-establishment narrative

A new political chapter has begun in Lebanon, with Hezbollah excluded from the government for the first time in almost two decades, as the Shia group has lost much of its influence amid changes in regional power dynamics. The West must help the new government dismantle Hezbollah and bring stability to the country.

Establishment-critical narrative

America and its allies have sought to meddle in Lebanese politics to anti-democratically exclude Shia Muslims from the new government, but to no avail, as running the country without them would be impossible. Hezbollah and its allies Amal are part of the Lebanese society and must be treated as such.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that Lebanon will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The systemic failure of French institutions enabled a dangerous predator to continue practicing medicine despite clear warning signs, with hospitals and medical authorities repeatedly ignoring red flags and failing to protect vulnerable patients.

Narrative B

The charges against Le Scouarnec are deeply disturbing. Given the extraordinary sensitivity of all allegations against him, it's important to allow due process to continue in his remaining trials so that all vital details can be clarified in a court of law.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease to be president of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The tariffs are essential for protecting American industry and ensuring fair trade practices. The current system allows other countries to take advantage of the US through unfair practices, and these measures will level the playing field for US firms and reduce dependence on foreign steel and aluminum.

Anti-Trump narrative

These tariffs will harm the global economy and trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners. The measures will increase costs for US manufacturers, potentially lead to job losses in steel-using industries, and risk sparking a broader trade war that could damage international economic cooperation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance the US Congress will pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The swift dismissal of Andrew Gwynne highlights a commitment to maintaining high standards within Labour's ranks. In an era of fragile public trust in politicians, such decisive moves are essential to upholding accountability. By launching a thorough investigation into the incident, the British government can reassure the public that any further misconduct will be addressed as expected.

Right narrative

The leaked messages reveal a party that publicly champions progressive values but privately indulges in toxic behavior. Labour MPs' language and tone in these messages starkly contradict the moral high ground they often claim to occupy. Starmer's government, like its predecessors, seems plagued by a disconnect between its public persona and the reality of its members' conduct.

Nerd narrative

There's a 66% chance that the UK will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

The Cook Islands has every right to pursue independent international agreements that benefit its economic development and national interests. The partnership with China focuses solely on trade and infrastructure and, therefore, doesn't require New Zealand's approval or oversight.

Anti-China narrative

The Cook Islands' lack of transparency and consultation on a major agreement with China violates constitutional obligations and raises significant security concerns for the region. This move undermines its special relationship with New Zealand and its defense and foreign affairs coordination arrangements.

Narrative A

This rise in deaths is alarming and must be investigated further. Asylum or refugee status isn't routinely recorded as part of the death registration process, which means the number of deaths of individuals seeking asylum in the UK could be much worse than what's been reported. More must be done to hold the Home Office to account.

Narrative B

The government has been doing more in terms of oversight of refugee oversight policy, including establishing clear lines for reporting and accountability and providing additional training for the staff in charge of managing large projects and contracted providers. Officials are continuing to look for other ways to improve the system.

Pro-establishment narrative

Trump's proposal only emboldens extremists in the Israeli government, thus why the Biden admin. was against such a move. Furthermore, relocating Palestinians from Gaza could destabilize Jordan and Egypt, two critical US allies in the region. As the tensions remain high, it is imperative that the cease-fire holds.

Pro-Israel narrative

Trump understands that as long as Hamas and other radical Islamist groups remain on Israel's doorstep, there will always be more conflict and misery. Trump's suggestion to relocate the Palestinians is a move of compassion that would both ensure the safety of civilians and Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Only the most ill-informed of people do not recognize that Trump's suggestion equates to the forcible deportation and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians — violating fundamental tenets of international law and the Geneva Conventions. Indeed, this was the plan all along, as even the Biden admin. floated the idea of forcibly displacing Palestinians from Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 6% chance that Israel will establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This continues the fulfillment of Trump's campaign promise to have DOGE cut wasteful expenditures. But this is also one of the President's most bipartisan ideas, as figures on both sides of the political spectrum over the years have lamented the high cost of minting pennies.

Democratic narrative

While some may consider this a reasonable proposal at first, it's quite clear that the Constitution granted the power to mint currency to Congress, not the president. In addition, stopping penny minting sadly won't be as cost-saving as some would have you believe.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the United States will first mint a coin worth $1 billion or more by December 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.