UK, Irish Governments to Consider Formal Paramilitary Engagement
The UK and Irish governments have jointly announced plans to appoint an independent expert to assess the potential for formal engagement with paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland, aiming to facilitate their eventual disbandment.
The initiative follows recommendations from the Independent Reporting Commission's (IRC) seventh report, which describes 2024 as a "mixed" year that saw decreased shootings, but persistent paramilitary intimidation and coercive control in Northern Irish communities.
The IRC was established by the UK and Irish governments in 2017 to support "long term peace and stability" in NI. Its latest report advocates a "twin track" approach addressing law enforcement and socio-economic factors, while also suggesting formal group transition through direct engagement.
Narrative A
The decision to consider formal contact with Northern Irish paramilitaries is a positive and necessary step. Despite efforts to address paramilitary activity, these groups continue to threaten communities through coercion, violence, and control. Engaging with paramilitary groups to foster disbandment is a bold approach that moves beyond containment, working towards a peaceful, paramilitary-free future.
Narrative B
The decision to engage with Northern Irish paramilitary groups sends the wrong message. These groups, deeply embedded in practices of crime and coercion, should be dismantled, not negotiated with. Offering them a platform legitimizes their actions and undermines the progress made in challenging their influence. Instead of appointing an expert to assess engagement, the government should demand their immediate disbandment and enforce the law.
Nerd narrative
There's a 22% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
North Korean Hackers Allegedly Pull Off Record $1.5B Crypto Heist
Hackers allegedly linked to North Korea's Lazarus Group have stolen $1.5B in cryptocurrency from Bybit exchange, reportedly by compromising its cold wallet system during a routine transfer process.
Blockchain analysis firms, including Elliptic and TRM Labs, traced the stolen funds, which were quickly laundered through multiple wallets and exchanges. Despite global tracking efforts, only about $43M has been recovered so far.
Bybit Chief Executive Officer Ben Zhou assured users that the exchange remains solvent and can cover the losses. The company has also offered a 10% bounty on recovered funds to incentivize security experts to help trace the stolen assets.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is just the latest in a deluge of 21st century cyber attacks committed by North Korea. With the support of the North Korean government, cybercrime has become a lucrative and tactically effective means of undermining other nations. The West must take this seriously in order to uphold the principles of democracy and freedom.
Establishment-critical narrative
It is not only the West that suffers in the face of cyberattacks. China, along with much of Asia, faces transnational crime challenges relating to fraud, undermining regional stability and security. However, Western powers — especially the US — have successfully peddled the illusion that China and Russia are hacking empires, while the West only acts defensively.
Nerd narrative
There's a 59% chance that Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X will accept crypto as a payment on Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Says Zelenskyy to Sign Ukraine Minerals Agreement on Friday
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to travel to the US for the signing of a deal on Ukraine's mineral resources, US Pres. Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday. "I hear that he is coming on Friday," Trump said. "Certainly it's okay with me, if he'd like to, and he would like to sign it together with me. And I understand that's a big deal, very big deal."
The notion of opening up US investment in Ukraine's mineral resources in exchange for security guarantees was first suggested by Zelenskyy when he pitched his "victory plan" to US Pres. Joe Biden in September last year. However, the proposal sat idle until Trump suggested striking a deal on the minerals earlier this month, with Zelenskyy stating he was open to the idea.
But negotiations over the minerals agreement, as well as the possibility of a wider Russia-Ukraine peace deal, almost fell apart last week after Trump and Zelenskyy exchanged a series of barbs. Trump went on to tell reporters that when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to Kyiv with the initial draft of the agreement, he was treated "rudely" by Zelenskyy.
Pro-Trump narrative
The US gives Ukraine billions in military aid every year. It's only right that the US gets something in return for these contributions and Trump will achieve this as part of his America First policy.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
This deal was struck to secure Ukraine's long-term security. Provisions agreed with the US make clear mention of ensuring Ukrainian safety and stability.
Pro-Russia narrative
The lion's share of Ukraine's rare-earth minerals lie in eastern areas that are no longer under Kyiv's control. Ukraine is making the US false promises in the hopes of continuing aid.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Tardigrade Protein Shows Promise in Cancer Care
Researchers from MIT, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and the University of Iowa published a study Tuesday on using Dsup, a protein found in tardigrades, to help cancer patients tolerate radiation therapy. Tardigrades are microscopic organisms that can survive radiation doses 2K-3K times higher than humans can.
Approximately 60% of cancer patients in the US receive radiation therapy, but severe side effects often force patients to delay or stop treatment due to damage to healthy tissues surrounding tumors.
Using lab-grown cells, the team delivered messenger RNA encoding the Dsup protein to tissues using specially designed polymer-lipid nanoparticles, temporarily producing the protective protein without permanently altering cellular DNA.
Narrative A
The revolutionary approach offers a targeted, temporary solution to radiation damage without compromising cancer treatment effectiveness, potentially transforming radiation therapy by allowing higher doses to be used more safely while maintaining quality of life for patients.
Narrative B
The temporary nature of mRNA treatment raises questions about long-term effectiveness and immune system responses, while the need for direct injection into affected tissues may limit practical application in clinical settings.
Nerd narrative
There's a 99% chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chile Declares Emergency After Nationwide Power Outage
A widespread power outage struck Chile on Tuesday afternoon, affecting 14 of the country's 16 regions and 8M households. This prompted the government to declare an emergency and impose a nighttime curfew.
The blackout was caused by a failure in a high-voltage transmission line that carried power from the Atacama Desert in northern Chile to Santiago. The line's failure disrupted essential services — including traffic lights and subway systems — and left people stranded in elevators across the capital city.
The power failure affected critical infrastructure, including hospitals, which operated on backup generators. It also impacted Chile's copper mining operations — including state-owned Codelco's facilities and BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine.
Narrative A
The government's swift response, including military deployment and curfew implementation, was necessary to maintain order and protect citizens during this unprecedented crisis. It demonstrates strong leadership in the face of a national emergency that threatened public safety and essential services.
Narrative B
Private power companies' infrastructure failures and slow response times exposed serious vulnerabilities in Chile's electrical grid system — highlighting the need for better oversight and modernization of critical infrastructure to prevent such widespread disruptions.
House GOP Passes Trump Budget Blueprint
The US House on Tuesday night passed a budget resolution by a margin of 217-215, with all Democrats opposing and only one Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, voting against the measure.
The budget framework, which advances US Pres. Donald Trump's agenda, allows for $4.5T in tax cuts over the next decade, including extensions of Trump's 2017 tax cuts. It also requires congressional committees to identify between $1.5T and $2T in spending reductions to partially offset the costs.
The resolution directs the House Energy & Commerce Committee to find $880B in spending cuts over a decade from federal health and energy programs, while the Education and Workforce Committee must identify $330B in reductions and the Agriculture Committee needs to cut $230B.
Republican narrative
There's a lot of hard work ahead for Republicans in both houses of Congress. But by largely sticking together to pass this budget resolution, Congress has moved one step closer to delivering Trump's "America First" agenda to the people — fulfilling Republicans' campaign promises.
Democratic narrative
This terrible resolution will recklessly add trillions to the US' deficit while making spending cuts on programs that help everyday Americans in order to pay for tax cuts for the filthy rich. Republicans are also hiding cuts to Medicare in this bill. This is not what Americans voted for.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the US federal government will pass legislation to provide universal healthcare for American citizens by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Iran's Near-Weapons Grade Uranium Stock Surges
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report, Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, reaching 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) as of Feb. 8. That's an increase of 92.5 kilograms (203.9 pounds) since November.
According to IAEA assessments, the current stockpile of highly enriched uranium is theoretically sufficient to produce six nuclear bombs if further enriched to 90%. Approximately 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium is needed to make one atomic bomb.
The IAEA also estimates that Iran's overall uranium stockpile has expanded to 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds) — an increase of 1,690.0 kilograms (3,725.8 pounds) since the previous report — far exceeding the 300-kilogram limit established under the original 2015 nuclear deal.
Pro-Iran narrative
The IAEA report is a propaganda. Iran's nuclear program serves peaceful purposes, and Tehran maintains its right to develop nuclear technology despite external pressures. The IAEA has received answers to safeguards questions, but there's a political will not to accept them. This is a political rather than a technical matter, as evidenced by Grossi's statements about resolving issues with the US.
Anti-Iran narrative
Iran's increased production of high-enriched uranium poses a serious proliferation risk. The lack of cooperation with IAEA inspectors and unexplained nuclear activities at undeclared sites raise significant concerns about the true nature of Iran's nuclear program. Tehran's actions represent reckless behavior in a tense regional context, which is why it must be forced to immediately reverse these steps.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that the US and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Dept. of Agriculture Pledges $1B to Fight Bird Flu as Egg Prices Soar
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a $1B investment to combat the spreading bird flu outbreak, with $500M allocated for free biosecurity audits to farms and $400M for increased payment rates for farmers who must cull their infected chickens.
The three-year outbreak has led to around 166M chickens killed since 2022, while also infecting nearly 1K dairy herds and almost 70 people, including one fatality, since early 2024. An estimated 27M hens were culled in the first six weeks of 2025.
Crescent Duck Farm in Long Island, NY, was forced to cull 99K ducks due to a bird flu outbreak and recently welcomed 3.7K new chicks from 9K salvaged eggs, a significantly lower hatching rate than expected. The most recent flu strain has been found in turkeys and geese, too.
Republican narrative
The Trump administration is trying to remedy the failures of the Biden administration's slaughter-focused policies. For years, Biden's health authorities ordered the culling of hundreds of millions of birds, even if they were healthy — resulting in rising egg prices due to low supply and high demand. The new USDA will fix this by briefly importing replacement birds and focusing on eradicating the disease only where it exists.
Democratic narrative
Pinning this on Biden is illogical. The deaths of 100M chickens were the result of a USDA policy from Trump's first term, not Biden's doing. And while prices climbed a couple of dollars under Biden, Trump, who vowed to slash grocery costs, has yet to reverse it, showing the issue is much larger than he thinks. Trump also refuses to target price-gouging supermarkets, proving he doesn't understand the economic aspects of this issue.
Nerd narrative
There is a 39.6% chance that the CDC will report between 76 and 85 confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu as of Mar. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Unveils $5M 'Gold Card' Visa
US Pres. Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a new "gold card" visa program that would provide wealthy foreigners a path to US citizenship for $5M. This would replace the existing EB-5 investor visa program which currently requires investments of $1.05M or $800K in targeted employment areas.
Trump said the program would begin within two weeks. Additionally, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick criticized the EB-5 program as being "full of nonsense, make-believe and fraud," while emphasizing that gold card applicants would undergo vetting.
The Homeland Security Department's most recent statistics showed that the EB-5 program, created by Congress in 1990, issued approximately 8K visas in the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2022.
Pro-Trump narrative
The gold card program is a strategic approach to attract high-net-worth individuals who will contribute significantly to the US economy through substantial investments, tax payments, and job creation. Meanwhile, there will be stronger vetting procedures to prevent fraud and ensure quality applicants rather than the current EB-5 program. This is a winning idea from President Trump.
Anti-Trump narrative
This program creates a discriminatory two-tier immigration system that favors the wealthy while ignoring hardworking immigrants, potentially opening doors for money laundering and corruption. Trump essentially wants to sell American citizenship to the highest bidder without proper congressional oversight.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 1.09M immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in fiscal year 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.