31 March 2025

Daily Newsletter

Musk Hands Out $1M Checks at Wisconsin Supreme Court Rally

The Facts

  • Elon Musk distributed two $1 million checks to Wisconsin voters at an event supporting conservative Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel at Green Bay town hall, after the state Supreme Court unanimously rejected Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul's attempt to block the giveaway.

  • The Wisconsin Supreme Court election, scheduled for Tuesday, has become the most expensive judicial race in American history, involving over $81 million in spending. Musk and his affiliated groups have contributed over $20 million to support Schimel's campaign.

  • Josh Kaul argued the giveaway was “a blatant attempt to violate Wis. Stat. § 12.11," which forbids offering or promising anything of value to influence an elector's voting behavior. Musk's attorneys said the payments were intended to generate grassroots opposition to activist judges.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Elon Musk’s attempt to buy the Wisconsin election is nothing short of outright illegal, clearly violating Wis. Stat. § 12.11 and setting a dangerous precedent for American democracy. His preferred candidate, if elected, will be little more than a pawn for Musk’s toxic politics, as he always sells out to his big campaign donors.

Republican narrative

The liberal outcry over Musk’s legitimate $1 million giveaways plays right into his strategy, amplifying attention on the critical issues affecting everyday Americans — this time, the pivotal Wisconsin Supreme Court race. If Susan Crawford wins a seat on the court, Wisconsin and the nation will be thrown into chaos by her far-left, radical ideology.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50.3% chance that Susan Crawford will win the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UK Hosts 40-Nation Summit to Combat People Smuggling

The Facts

  • The UK is this week hosting a landmark summit with over 40 countries, including the US, Vietnam, Iraq, and France, to coordinate efforts against organized immigration crime, with officials of social media giants like Meta and TikTok also participating.

  • The summit comes shortly after the British government announced a substantial funding package of £33 million to tackle immigration crime — £30 million to address trafficking routes and supply chains, and £3 million to boost the UK's capacity to prosecute international smugglers.

  • Channel crossings reached unprecedented levels in 2025, with more than 6,642 migrants crossing in 119 boats, marking a 43% increase compared to the same period last year and highlighting the growing challenge faced by border authorities.


The Spin

Labour narrative

The landmark summit convenes delegates from over 40 nations to combat the "vile trade" in irregular migration, demonstrating Labour's commitment to tackling this global criminal industry. By uniting international partners, the UK aims to dismantle smuggling networks and strengthen border security, reflecting the party's decisive approach to the crisis.

Tory narrative

The international summit on illegal immigration, organized by Prime Minister Starmer, is a mere "talking shop." Despite theatrical displays of enforcement and border security, the UK's Labour government appears ineffectual in addressing the crisis, with channel crossings up 31% since they took power and abandoned the Rwanda deterrent program.

Nerd narrative

There is a 26.6% chance that 12,14,000 Mediterranean migrants and refugees will enter Europe in March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump 'Pissed Off' at Putin, Threatens Oil Tariffs Unless Cease-fire Progress

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said he was "very angry" and "pissed off" at President Vladimir Putin after the Russian leader questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, threatening to impose tariffs on Russian oil if he feels Moscow is dragging its feet on his plans to end the war.

  • In a phone interview with NBC News on Sunday, Trump stated: "If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia."

  • The remarks from Trump came after Putin last week suggested Ukraine be temporarily placed under U.N. control until it undergoes new elections, further suggesting that Russia could begin negotiations with this new government on a peace agreement and sign "legitimate documents."


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump did not appreciate Putin's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy when they are supposed to be agreeing to a peace deal. However, Trump has known Putin a long time and is confident that he won't go back on his word — it remains likely that a peace agreement will be reached imminently.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia remains committed to a peace deal, but that deal must be negotiated and agreed with the legitimate authorities of Ukraine. Negotiating a lasting cease-fire with Zelenskyy would be undemocratic and unacceptable, as his presidential term expired in May last year.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by Nov. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Teen Mensik Stuns Djokovic to Win First ATP Title in Miami

The Facts

  • Czech teenager Jakub Mensik defeated Novak Djokovic 7-6(4), 7-6(4) in Sunday's Miami Open final, denying the Serbian his 100th career title while also becoming the second-youngest Miami champion, after Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Mensik, who nearly withdrew from the tournament due to knee inflammation before his first match, powered through with 14 aces and faced only one breakpoint throughout the final.

  • After a five-and-a-half-hour rain delay, the 19-year-old maintained composure against Djokovic — his childhood idol — who struggled with an eye infection amid humid conditions throughout the match.


The Spin

Narrative A

Mensik's powerful serving, composed demeanor, and ability to handle the pressure required to compete at the highest level showcases remarkable resilience and determination. A rising star defeating his childhood idol on one of the sport's biggest stages is a changing of the guard in tennis.

Narrative B

While this loss delayed Djokovic's quest for a historic 100th title, the match still highlighted his continued ability to compete at the highest level despite physical challenges. The Serbian's gracious response to defeat and previous mentorship of Mensik emphasizes his role in nurturing the next generation of tennis talent.

Nerd narrative

There's a 90% chance that tennis will be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Sudan's RSF Admits Khartoum Retreat as Army Claims Victory

The Facts

  • On Sunday, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, officially acknowledged the paramilitary group's withdrawal from Sudan's capital, Khartoum, marking a significant moment in the country's civil war.

  • In the last month, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, reclaimed control of several strategic locations in Khartoum, including the presidential palace and international airport, pushing the RSF out of the city.

  • In an audio message recorded for Eid al-Fitr, the RSF leader claimed the withdrawal "was a tactical decision made by the leadership," and promised they would return to Khartoum "stronger, more powerful, and victorious."


The Spin

Narrative A

The SAF's Liberation of Khartoum represents a decisive victory for Sudan and for restoring national unity and stability. The SAF's military operations will continue until the last rebel is eliminated in the last corner of Sudan — there will be no quarter for the RSF and no negotiation amounting to less than their total, unconditional surrender.

Narrative B

The orderly withdrawal from Khartoum was a strategic repositioning of RSF forces, taken collectively by the leadership. It was not — contrary to the lies of the SAF — a defeat. Far from being over, the war has only just begun, and the RSF will return more powerful than before to defeat the extremist SAF.

Nerd narrative

There is a 57% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces will win the civil war in Sudan, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Le Pen Barred From 2027 French Election After Court Ruling

The Facts

  • A Paris criminal court on Monday found French National Rally (NR) leader Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds through a fake jobs arrangement that operated between 2004 and 2016, resulting in losses of approximately 4.5 million euros (4.9 million dollars) to European taxpayers.

  • The court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison with two years suspended and two years of house arrest with electronic monitoring, in addition to a 100,000 euro fine. The sentence also bans Le Pen from holding public office for five years with immediate effect.

  • Eight other National Rally lawmakers and 12 parliamentary assistants were also convicted for their involvement in the arrangement, which involved using EU funds meant for parliamentary assistants to instead pay for France-based party staff.


The Spin

Right narrative

The verdict against Le Pen, which disenfranchises millions of French voters, is yet another example of politically motivated efforts by the Left to undermine a populist opposition leader through judicial means. A troubling pattern is emerging, with leaders like Brazil's Bolsonaro, Romania's Georgescu, and now France's Le Pen being unjustly targeted through undemocratic lawfare. This ongoing use of the judiciary to silence political opponents must be stopped immediately.

Left narrative

The court's decision follows a thorough investigation that uncovered systematic fraud, making the immediate ban on running for office necessary given the seriousness of the offense and the risk of recidivism. Le Pen, a politician who frequently demands firmness from the judicial system, should not be treated differently. This ruling reinforces that no politician is above the law and should be applauded as another victory for the rule of law.

Cynical narrative

Marine Le Pen's conviction, while legally justified, risks eroding trust in democratic institutions. Even if the law is correctly applied, using legal action to target political rivals, especially over financial crimes, is likely to backfire and further fuel populist and far-right movements. Such judicial interventions will be seen as politically motivated, undermining faith in the rule of law and deepening polarization. Justice must remain fair and impartial, not a tool for political silencing.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21.6% chance that Marine Le Pen will be elected President of France in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Crosses 2K, Rescue Hopes Fade

The Facts

  • Myanmar's military government declared a week-long national mourning period after the death toll from a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck the city of Mandalay Friday crossed 2,000 on Monday.

  • The earthquake's shallow depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) reportedly caused extensive damage to nearly 1,700 houses, 670 monasteries, 60 schools, and three bridges.

  • Though international teams have arrived in Myanmar, rescue efforts are complicated by damaged infrastructure and ongoing civil conflict. Additionally, key medical facilities are struggling with severe shortages of supplies.


The Spin

Narrative A

With overwhelmed hospitals lacking basic supplies and space to treat victims and many medical facilities remaining closed due to the military regime's persecution of health care workers who opposed its rule, the earthquake has exposed Myanmar's severely weakened healthcare system after four years of junta rule.

Narrative B

The military government is doing its best to coordinate relief efforts and welcome international assistance. Though the oppressive heat has exhausted rescue teams, the teams remain focused on searching for missing persons amid collapsed buildings, downed bridges, and buckled roads and treating the injured.

Narrative C

Despite this unprecedented disaster compounding an already dire humanitarian crisis, Myanmar's military continues to strike Sagaing, Magway, Shan, and Kachin with brutal force. This shows a flagrant disregard for the welfare of the people and human life during a humanitarian crisis.

Nerd narrative

There's a 49.7% chance that the Myanmar military junta will collapse after 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Markets Slip After Trump Says Tariffs Will Hit Globally

The Facts

  • Stock markets around the world and U.S. futures fell Monday ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's planned 25% tariffs on automobile imports and reciprocal tariffs on "all countries," which are, respectively, set to take effect and be announced on April 2.

  • Korean stocks fell nearly 3% on Monday while Japanese and Taiwanese stocks fell more than 4%, with Japan's Nikkei 225 dropping 12% from its December high. In the U.S., the tech-focused exchange Nasdaq also dropped.

  • Amid the Nasdaq fall, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta suffered losses. Gold, meanwhile, rose to over $3,100 per ounce for the first time in response to the drop-off in riskier stocks.


The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's reciprocal tariffs heighten recession odds, with Bloomberg's 30% estimate and Goldman Sachs' 35% forecast signaling a statistically significant risk — fueled by trade uncertainty and declining consumer spending. Even without a recession, his policies will slash growth, spike inflation, raise unemployment, and erode wealth, disproportionately taxing lower-income families while destabilizing global trade and empowering China.

Pro-Trump narrative

To hide the truth, anti-Trumpers stoke fear over tariffs and make wild predictions about chaos and job losses. In the real world, Trump's policies will finally achieve fair trade and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. — boosting national security and jobs. Past Trump successes, like the pre-COVID record-low unemployment and growth, prove it. Lower taxes and energy costs will also offset any demand dip, which is what critics refuse to include in their doom-and-gloom reports.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that a recession will begin in the United States in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

French Regulator Fines Apple 150M Euros

The Facts

  • France's competition regulator fined Apple 150 million euros on Monday over reported abuses related to its App Tracking Transparency (ATT) feature on iOS devices.

  • The French Competition Authority said that the goal of ATT, which was requiring iPhone and iPad apps to ask users for permission before tracking them, was not in itself open to criticism with the fine, but that the "way in which it was implemented was neither necessary nor proportionate to Apple's stated objective of protecting personal data."

  • ATT was implemented by Apple in 2021 and requires apps on iPads and iPhones to get permission before collecting data to target users with personalized ads.


The Spin

Narrative A

While Apple may claim that ATT is purely a privacy feature meant to protect users, the reality of the matter is that it is just one more way that Apple works to squash its competition with unfair tactics. This feature unfairly penalizes smaller apps and publishers that would be using the user data as a form of revenue and also makes their applications less enjoyable. This fine is a reasonable response to the issue, especially considering just how much money Apple brings in every year.

Narrative B

This fine was unreasonable, and Apple has every reason to be disappointed with the outcome of this case. ATT is a feature that puts the needs of users first and ensures that they have more say in their privacy and how their data is being utilized. The feature has received strong support from consumers, privacy advocates, and data protection authorities around the world, and even France's competition authority, which issued the fine, gave no guidance on changing the feature.

Nerd narrative

There's a 59% chance that Apple will allow side-loading or other app stores on its iPhones in the United Kingdom before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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