Former President Bolsonaro's Coup Trial Begins in Brazil
Brazil's Supreme Court on Monday opened the trial to determine whether former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants are guilty or not guilty of coup-related charges following his 2022 election defeat to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Until June 2, a total of 82 witnesses for the prosecution and defense will be heard via videoconference, including former army commander Gen. Marco Antônio Freire Gomes, former air force commander Carlos Baptista de Almeida Junior, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and former Vice President Hamilton Mourão — now a senator.
Later, on a date yet to be set, Bolsonaro, his 2022 running mate Gen. Walter Braga Netto, his former aid Mauro Cid, Gen. Augusto Heleno, Gen. Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, former intelligence chief Alexandre Ramagem, former Justice Minister Anderson Torres, and former Navy commander Almir Garnier will be summoned for questioning.
Left narrative
Brazil is showing its commitment to protecting democracy and holding accountable whoever attempts to undermine its democratic institutions, which is a lesson to other countries facing similar challenges. Given that Bolsonaro has even confessed to having discussed a coup, it's only a matter of time before he and his accomplices are found guilty.
Right narrative
It's hardly a surprise that Bolsonaro and several of his allies are on trial for an alleged coup plot. As long warned, Brazilian conservatives have been politically persecuted since Bolsonaro's first day out of office in a blatant example of leftist lawfare — the very same failed strategy used in America against Trump.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as president of Brazil in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia's Liberal-National Coalition Splits
Australia's National Party formally ended its coalition agreement with the Liberal Party on Tuesday, following extensive negotiations between Nationals leader David Littleproud and Liberal leader Sussan Ley.
The breakdown reportedly occurred over policy disagreements, including nuclear power, a proposed $20 billion regional future fund, supermarket divestiture powers, and telecommunications coverage requirements for rural areas.
As a result of the split, the Liberal Party will remain the sole opposition with 28 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives. Meanwhile, the Nationals' 15 members of parliament (MPs) and four senators will function as an independent minor party.
Narrative A
The split is necessary to protect regional Australia's interests and values. The Nationals maintained their electoral strength while the Liberals lost significant ground, proving that the regional party's policies resonate with its constituency. Rural communities deserve dedicated representation without compromise, particularly on crucial issues like nuclear power and regional development.
Narrative B
The Liberal Party needs space to rebuild and redefine itself after significant electoral losses, particularly in urban areas. The Nationals' inflexible demands and desire to breach shadow cabinet solidarity made continued partnership untenable. A period of separation will allow both parties to develop clear, independent policy positions that better serve their respective constituencies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 57% chance that the Coalition will be in the majority when it next governs Australia, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Admin to Pay $5M in Capitol Riot Death Settlement
The Trump administration has agreed to pay nearly $5 million to settle a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of Ashli Babbitt, who was fatally shot by Capitol Police during the Jan. 6, 2021 riot while attempting to breach the House Speaker's Lobby.
Approximately one-third of the settlement amount will go to the family's legal team, including the conservative group Judicial Watch and attorney Richard Driscoll. The settlement resolves a $30 million lawsuit filed by Babbitt's estate.
U.S. Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd shot Babbitt, an unarmed 35-year-old Air Force veteran, as she attempted to climb through a broken window of a barricaded door when members of Congress were being evacuated from the area.
Democratic narrative
This payout is a grave miscarriage of justice and sets a dangerous precedent that could encourage future violent protests and demoralize officers who risk their lives to defend democratic institutions. It sends a chilling message to law enforcement and undermines their ability to maintain order.
Republican narrative
This settlement acknowledges the excessive and unnecessary use of lethal force against an unarmed veteran who posed no immediate threat. The plainclothes officer failed to issue proper warnings or attempt de-escalation before resorting to deadly force, violating standard police protocols and Babbitt's constitutional rights.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15.7% chance that President Trump will formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Surgeons Complete World's First Human Bladder Transplant
Surgeons from UCLA Health and the USC Institute of Urology performed the world’s first successful human bladder transplant on May 4 in an eight-hour procedure at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center.
The recipient, Oscar Larrainzar, a 41-year-old Los Angeles resident, had lost most of his bladder to a rare form of cancer and had both kidneys removed as part of the treatment, leaving him dependent on dialysis for seven years.
According to releases from UCLA and USC, the procedure first involved transplanting a new kidney, followed by a new bladder, which was then connected via a new technique pioneered by the surgeons.
Narrative A
This represents a revolutionary advancement in organ transplantation, offering a groundbreaking treatment for patients with terminal bladder conditions. The procedure results in an immediate improvement in bladder function, negating the need for dialysis and opening the door for potentially millions suffering from bladder dysfunction worldwide to a new treatment option that is life-saving and life-enhancing.
Narrative B
While the initial surgery shows tremendous promise, a series of unknowns remain. For example, it is yet to be seen how Larrainzar’s new organ will perform over time and how long he will have to take immunosuppression medication to prevent his body from rejecting the bladder, which could be lifelong. While the procedure is exciting, further trials are needed to assess the surgery’s long-term outcomes before it is rolled out to patients.
Zelenskyy Rules Out Withdrawing Ukrainian Troops From Its Own Territory
In a news conference following Monday's call between U.S. and Russian leaders Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ruled out the prospect of withdrawing his country's troops from parts of its own territory — one of Russia's demands for ending the war.
Last week, when delegations from Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey for peace talks, Russia issued five conditions for a 30-day ceasefire, including Ukraine's recognition of Crimea and four regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia in the conflict as Russian, further demanding that Ukrainian soldiers withdraw to the borders of those regions, though they are not militarily controlled by Russia.
On Monday, following Trump and Putin's call, the Russian leader again pushed back against calls for an immediate ceasefire, once again insisting that "root causes" have to be addressed, but said his country was prepared to work with Ukraine on a memorandum for a future peace agreement. He added that the negotiating teams from Turkey have remained in contact.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia and Ukraine will now work to draft proposals for a ceasefire before the sides engage in extensive technical negotiations to achieve a unified process. However, this work cannot be rushed and deadlines are inappropriate as the devil lies in the details.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine fully supports the path of peace and a ceasefire. However, Ukraine cannot support voluntarily withdrawing its troops from its own lands. If Russia proposes such a move, it's clear that it's not serious about peace or a ceasefire.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hungary's Parliament Approves ICC Exit
On Tuesday, the Hungarian parliament approved the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), with the bill passing by 134 votes in favor, as opposed to 37 against, and seven abstentions.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government originally announced its intention to withdraw on April 3, shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived on an official visit to Budapest, defying an ICC arrest warrant issued against the Israeli leader.
The bill, introduced by Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjen, said that “Hungary firmly rejects the use of international organizations… as instruments of political influence,” following comments from Orbán that the ICC was a “political court” in April.
Pro-government narrative
The ICC has lost all credibility in its politically motivated witch hunt of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The court is no longer the organization that Hungary was a founding member of in 2002; it has since lost all commitment to political impartiality, transforming from a judicial body into a political tool. In light of this, Hungary has no wish to be involved with such an unserious organization.
Government-critical narrative
The withdrawal from the ICC represents a concerning retreat from international justice and a betrayal of all war crime victims. By leaving the court to protect Netanyahu, Hungary is deliberately undermining the global legal framework designed to address the most serious crimes against humanity. This decision sets a dangerous precedent that weakens the international community's ability to pursue justice.
Musk Pledges Tesla Leadership While Scaling Back Political Role
Elon Musk, during his appearance Tuesday at the Qatar Economic Forum, committed to remaining Tesla's CEO for the next five years, dismissing recent reports about the company's board searching for his replacement as "deliberately false."
The Tesla CEO, who contributed more than $250 million to support President Donald Trump's election campaign, announced plans to significantly reduce his future political spending, stating, "I think I've done enough."
Musk had been serving as the face of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the Trump administration, leading efforts to restructure federal agencies and reduce the federal workforce, while simultaneously managing Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.
Republican narrative
Elon Musk's genius and altruism shine despite relentless backlash. He's built the world's top EV company, even as Trump's policies contradict his green energy business model. He's also given billions to charity and Starlink internet to war-torn and disaster-hit areas, showing his selflessness. If that weren't enough, he purchased Twitter to save free speech and created DOGE to save taxpayers' money, yet the left-leaning corporate media ecosystem can't help but vilify him.
Democratic narrative
Musk's altruistic billionaire portrayal is a facade. DOGE promised $2 trillion in cuts but delivered only $71 billion, while federal spending rose $500 billion, and its chaotic cuts have harmed workers and America's social safety net without touching major budget drivers like Social Security. His wealth has also grown immensely, not thanks to his genius, but his proximity to Trump, who gave Starlink government contracts, prioritizing personal gain over public good.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance that Elon Musk will be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DOJ Charges Rep. McIver Over Confrontation With ICE Agents at Detention Center
Acting U.S. Attorney Alina Habba on Tuesday announced federal charges against U.S. Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) for allegedly assaulting, impeding, and interfering with law enforcement during a confrontation at the Delaney Hall ICE detention facility in Newark, N.J. on May 9. Habba said in a letter that McIver's conduct couldn't be "overlooked."
The incident occurred when McIver and two other Democratic House members visited the facility for oversight purposes. After a chaotic scene, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was arrested for trespassing, though his charges were later dropped by prosecutors "for the sake of moving forward."
Body camera footage released by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shows McIver in a tightly packed group, with her elbows making contact with an officer wearing a dark face covering and olive green uniform, though the intent behind the contact remains disputed.
Democratic narrative
This prosecution is purely political and aims to deter legislative oversight. The Trump administration has been following a pattern, first with the arrests of a sitting judge and a sitting mayor, and now with charges brought against a sitting congresswoman. This smells of authoritarianism, and it's important for Democrats and those who believe in American democracy to stand up to it.
Republican narrative
No one, regardless of position or status, has the right to assault federal agents or impede law enforcement operations. Democrats were warned not to cross the line between protesting and impeding law enforcement from doing its job. Now McIver must face the consequences of her actions, especially since she declined Habba's offers to settle the matter without pursuing a criminal case.
FDA Limits COVID Shots to High-Risk Groups
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a shift in its COVID-19 vaccine approval policy on Tuesday, limiting routine access to those 65 and older and people with underlying health conditions, while requiring additional clinical trials for healthy younger Americans.
Under the new framework, vaccine makers must conduct randomized, placebo-controlled trials lasting at least six months to demonstrate effectiveness before gaining approval for healthy individuals aged 6 months to 64 years.
The FDA will continue using immune response data to approve shots for adults over 65 and those with risk factors like obesity, diabetes, mental health conditions, and other medical issues that increase vulnerability to severe COVID-19.
Republican narrative
The new framework represents a balanced, evidence-based approach that ensures timely access for vulnerable populations while demanding rigorous scientific proof of benefit for low-risk individuals. This policy shift will help restore public trust in vaccines by requiring gold-standard data and acknowledging that a one-size-fits-all approach may no longer be appropriate given widespread immunity from prior vaccination and infection.
Democratic narrative
This overly restrictive policy will unnecessarily limit vaccine access for people who want protection, potentially leaving millions of healthy Americans vulnerable. The extensive safety and effectiveness data already collected from hundreds of millions of doses should be sufficient, and requiring new placebo-controlled trials raises ethical concerns given COVID-19's continued threat of hospitalization and death.
Nerd narrative
There is a 34% chance that there will be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons, according to the Metaculus prediction community.