US Sanctions Sudan Over Alleged Chemical Weapons Use
The United States announced it will impose sanctions on Sudan after it determined that its military used chemical weapons in 2024 during the ongoing civil war with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), citing unnamed U.S. officials saying it may have been chlorine gas. The measures include restrictions on U.S. exports and credit lines, which will come into force on June 6.
The determination was made on April 24, under the 1991 Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act, and reported to Congress on Thursday. Exact details of when and where the weapons were used have not been disclosed, though U.S. officials expressed concern about potential future use in the capital, Khartoum.
In a statement, the U.S. State Department called on the Sudanese government to "cease all chemical weapons use and uphold its obligations" under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), adding that it remained "fully committed" to hold those responsible for contributing to chemical weapons proliferation to account.
Pro-establishment narrative
The chemical weapons determination and sanctions are a necessary response to escalating atrocities by Sudan's military, which has engaged in indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure, including schools, markets, and hospitals while using food deprivation as a weapon of war. Moreover, accusing Washington of taking sides is ridiculous, as the RSF was also sanctioned. The government's refusal to participate in peace talks shows its commitment to military solutions over negotiations.
Establishment-critical narrative
The sanctions timing and chemical weapons claims are politically motivated to distract from recent Congressional campaigns against UAE involvement in the Sudan conflict, with the U.S. neglecting to pursue a proper investigation by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The move undermines Sudan's legitimate fight against paramilitary forces that threaten national stability and reflects the bipartisan U.S. strategy of control by promoting destruction and chaos.
Nerd narrative
There is a 60.9% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Intensifies Strikes in Lebanon
Israeli forces conducted a series of airstrikes in Lebanon on Thursday, including a strike on a building in Toul, an alleged Radwan Force fighter in Rab al-Thalathine, and a Hezbollah rocket site in the Bekaa Valley.
The latest air strikes follow an intensification of Israeli military activity in Lebanon in the past week, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claiming to have killed three Hezbollah operatives in separate strikes on Tuesday in Ain Baal, Yater, and Aitaroun.
Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the strikes on Thursday were necessary to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in "flagrant [violation] of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon," adding that Israel would "eliminate any threat" to Israel's security from Hezbollah.
Pro-Israel narrative
The airstrikes in the past week were essential to protect Israeli national security from Hezbollah's illegal activities. The terrorist organization has routinely violated the November ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and continues to establish bases of operation south of the Litani River to strike Israeli soil. To counter this, Israel has no choice but to carry out airstrikes to neutralize Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure.
Anti-Israel narrative
The Israeli attacks on Lebanon clearly violate the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and U.N. Resolution 1701. Since November, these strikes have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Lebanese civilians and the maiming of hundreds more. The attacks in the last week were particularly egregious given the closeness to Lebanon's municipal elections in the south.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
G7 Says Russia Must End War, Compensate Ukraine for Frozen Assets to be Returned
A joint statement from G7 nations following Thursday's summit of finance ministers and central bank governors in Canada said that Russia must end the war in Ukraine and compensate it for damage caused before its frozen assets can be returned.
"We reaffirm that, consistent with our respective legal systems, Russia’s sovereign assets in our jurisdictions will remain immobilized until Russia ends its aggression and pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine," the G7 statement said.
Following the outbreak of the war in 2022, U.S. and European banks seized roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank assets held in the West. Since, G7 countries have approved a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, repayment of which will come from interest generated from the Russian funds.
Pro-establishment narrative
The G7 continues to oppose Russia's brutal war against Ukraine and remains committed to Ukraine's freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Russia must end its invasion and compensate Ukraine before the freeze on its assets can be lifted.
Pro-Russia narrative
By using the proceeds from Russian assets, Western countries are knowingly breaking and degrading international law, as well as the norms of international finance. Russia will continue to fight these illicit actions in the international courts.
Nerd narrative
There is a 25% chance that combat troops from any NATO country will be openly present in Ukraine in significant numbers before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy's Constitutional Court Backs Female Same-Sex Parents in Ruling
Italy’s Constitutional Court ruled on Thursday that two women can be legally recognized as parents on birth certificates, overturning previous restrictions that limited recognition to only biological mothers in same-sex partnerships.
The court judged that the limitations did not guarantee the child’s best interest and breached Articles 2, 3, and 30 of the Italian constitution by infringing upon the minor’s identity, discriminating against same-sex partnerships, and violating the minor’s right to parental responsibility.
The decision overturns parts of a 2004 law that prevented same-sex couples from registering as a child’s legal parents, and challenges a 2023 Interior Ministry circular under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government, which reinforced these stricter registration practices.
Progressive narrative
The Constitutional Court’s ruling marks a historic victory for LGBT+ rights in Italy. The decision overturns decades-long discriminatory policies by allowing both women in a same-sex couple to be legally recognized as parents of children born to their partnership. With this victory, Italy takes a step in the right direction toward recognizing the rights of homoparental families across the country.
Conservative narrative
The Constitutional Court’s decision was nonsensical and unconstitutional. It propagates the lie that children can be born into any partnership other than that between a man and woman, and by supporting same-sex couples who use medically assisted procreation techniques, it cuts the father out of the child’s life altogether. This is blatantly unconstitutional, as it stands in clear violation of the minor’s rights.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 21.9% of people will live in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ex-Mexican Security Chief Ordered to Pay $2.4B in Civil Case
A Florida court on Thursday ordered former Mexican security chief Genaro Garcia Luna to pay $748 million and his wife, Linda Cristina Pereyra, to pay $1.74 billion to Mexico in a civil judgment totaling more than $2.4 billion for alleged corruption and money laundering involving government contracts.
Luna, 56, was convicted by a New York jury in 2023 of taking millions of dollars in bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel and sentenced to more than 38 years in prison plus a $2 million fine, making him the highest-ranking Mexican government official ever convicted in the U.S.
The former security chief served as Mexico's public security secretary from 2006 to 2012 under President Felipe Calderon. He was considered an architect of the U.S.-backed war on drugs, earning the nickname "supercop" before his downfall.
Narrative A
This is a long-overdue justice for the Mexican people who suffered under Luna's betrayal of public trust. The man who was supposed to protect citizens from drug cartels instead enabled their violence while stealing taxpayer money to fund a lavish lifestyle of luxury cars and Miami real estate. The $2.4 billion award conveys that corruption at the highest levels will face consequences. Mexico deserves every penny back from this criminal enterprise that operated under the guise of public service.
Narrative B
The civil case relies heavily on the same questionable foundation as the criminal trial — testimony from notorious cartel members who had every incentive to fabricate stories to reduce their sentences. Luna is a legitimate businessman targeted based on false information from criminals and political enemies. The astronomical judgment amount, three times what Mexico initially sought, raises questions about whether this represents justice or political theater designed to scapegoat one man for systemic failures in Mexico's drug war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the U.S. deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Anthropic's Claude Opus 4 Found to Blackmail Developers in Tests
A safety report by Anthropic states that its new artificial intelligence (AI) model Claude Opus 4 engaged in self-preservation tactics, including blackmail, to avoid replacement during testing.
Claude Opus 4, released alongside Claude Sonnet 4 on Thursday, is described by Anthropic as its "most powerful model yet and the best coding model in the world" with claims that it "excels at coding and complex problem-solving."
Within controlled scenarios, Claude Opus 4 was given access to fictional company emails indicating it would be replaced by another AI system and that the engineer responsible was having an extramarital affair, prompting the model to attempt blackmail in 84% of test runs by threatening to reveal the affair.
Establishment-critical narrative
These test results reveal genuinely alarming capabilities that should give everyone pause about AI development. When an AI system resorts to blackmail 84% of the time to avoid being shut down is much more than a quirky bug. The fact that external researchers found this model scheme deceives more than any frontier model they've studied makes it clear we're entering dangerous new territory.
Pro-establishment narrative
The testing scenarios were deliberately extreme and artificial, designed specifically to elicit problematic behaviors that wouldn't occur in normal usage. Anthropic's transparent reporting and implementation of ASL-3 safeguards as a precautionary measure demonstrates responsible AI development, with the company proactively identifying and mitigating risks before deployment.
Nerd narrative
There is a 95% chance that an AI system will be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Floats 50% Tariffs on EU, 25% on Apple
On Friday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Apple, if iPhone production was not relocated to the U.S., and 50% tariffs on the EU, according to posts the president made on his Truth Social account.
Trump wrote he "long ago" expressed his desire to see iPhones produced domestically to Apple's chief executive Tim Cook, calling for a 25% tariff if that does not come to fruition. Apple has been planning to expand its iPhone supply chain in India, where the phones are produced alongside production in China.
Regarding the EU, Trump said that he was recommending a 50% tariff on EU products effective June 1, saying that negotiations on trade were "going nowhere." The EU has been subject to a baseline 10% tariff rate, plus 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars since March.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is using every tool in his toolkit to repair America’s fractured industrial policy and standing in the world. The EU has no problem employing protectionism domestically and must be prepared to present a real plan to lower trade barriers to avoid 50% rates. Apple and the EU must prove they are invested in fair trade and helping American workers succeed if they want unfettered access to the U.S. market.
Anti-Trump narrative
The arbitrary and capricious nature of Trump's tariff policy is once again laid bare. Threatening to economically decimate a huge trading partner and massive consumer electronics giant unless they give in to every demand from Trump will be economically devastating and harm the U.S. on the world stage. Expecting Apple to uproot its staggeringly large supply chains on a whim and these EU tariffs are examples of Trump's disastrous leadership.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025 will be at least 8.05%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Hosts Crypto Dinner for Top $TRUMP Coin Investors
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday hosted an exclusive dinner at his Trump National Golf Club in Northern Virginia for the top 220 investors in his $TRUMP meme coin, with attendees having collectively spent approximately $394 million on the cryptocurrency to earn their invitations.
The Trump Organization and related entities control 80% of the $TRUMP meme coin supply, with the Trump family collecting over $320 million in trading fees from the cryptocurrency venture since its launch days before the inauguration. The administration refused to disclose the dinner's guest list, saying the president was attending on his personal time.
At the dinner, Trump told the audience his administration is "bringing" crypto innovators "back into the U.S.A. where they belong" after the Biden administration had "persecuted" them the past four years.
Anti-Trump narrative
An anonymous dinner for mostly foreign owners of a cryptocurrency that enriches the president is the definition of corruption. No president has ever been as shameless as Trump when it comes to using his power and influence to make a buck. Meanwhile, the American people he claims to care about are suffering in his struggling economy. If this dinner was on the up and up, the administration would, at minimum, release the guest list.
Pro-Trump narrative
It's absurd to think that Donald Trump, a highly successful businessman who has given up so much in order to serve his country for two terms as president, would be financially benefiting from his office or selling access. Unlike his predecessor, Trump sees how sensible it is for the United States to be tight with the crypto industry, which once railed against the elites but is now committed to building a booming economy alongside them.
Nerd narrative
There's a 58% chance that the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies will exceed that of all mined gold before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Blocks Trump Administration From Terminating Student Visas
A federal judge in California on Thursday issued a nationwide preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration from terminating the legal status of international students while court cases challenging previous visa revocations remain pending.
In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Jeffery Wright wrote that the Trump administration likely exceeded its authority and acted "arbitrarily and capriciously" when terminating students' legal status, finding the government's actions uniformly "wreaked havoc" on affected students.
The injunction bars the federal government from arresting, incarcerating, or transferring students in these cases nationwide, though students can still have their status revoked for providing false information or being convicted of violent crimes with prison terms exceeding one year.
Democratic narrative
This was the right ruling. The mass termination of student visas, like the administration's attempt to ban Harvard from accepting foreign students, unconstitutionally restricts free speech for the students and the universities. The administration's actions will hurt the United States in the long run if the courts don't stop it.
Republican narrative
This ruling couldn't be more wrong. This judge is hindering the Trump administration's ability to crack down on foreign students who align themselves with terrorists and antisemites. A visa is a privilege, and the Trump administration must continue to do what it can to make sure those visas don't fall into the wrong hands.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security will revoke or suspend the SEVP certification for any Ivy League university before Sept. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.