07 July 2025

Daily Newsletter

Elon Musk Launches the America Party

The Facts

  • In a post on X on Saturday, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, announced the formation of the America Party to challenge what he called the nation's "one-party system" and give Americans back their freedom.

  • The announcement followed a July 4 poll on X where Musk asked his followers whether they wanted independence from the two-party system, receiving over 1.2 million responses, with 65.4% supporting the creation of a new party.

  • Musk suggested that the new party will focus on reducing debt and regulation, promoting "responsible spending only" and free speech, and modernizing the U.S. military with AI and robotics, among other political issues.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Musk's third-party venture is nothing more than a vanity project that will split conservative votes and help Democrats win elections. The America Party already exists — it's called MAGA, and Musk is only doing this to hurt Trump out of personal spite. Third parties have historically struggled in America's two-party system, and this effort will likely follow a similar pattern, characterized by initial excitement followed by irrelevance.

Democratic narrative

Musk's America Party is a potential spoiler in future elections as it could siphon moderate and independent voters. His political views, often libertarian-leaning and unpredictable, clash with Democratic priorities like social justice, environmental regulation, and income equality. While there's a need for political innovation, the move is destabilizing rather than constructive for progressive goals.

Narrative C

This America Party is a genuine alternative to the corrupt establishment that's bankrupting the country with wasteful spending. Both Republicans and Democrats have become part of the same uni-party system that ignores fiscal responsibility and the will of the people. The overwhelming support in the poll indicates that Americans are eager for genuine change and accountability in government.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4.5% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the U.S. before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Australia: Erin Patterson Convicted of Mushroom Murders

The Facts

  • Erin Patterson was on Monday found guilty of three counts of murder and one count of attempted murder after serving death cap mushrooms in beef Wellington to her estranged husband's relatives at her Leongatha, Victoria home on July 29, 2023.

  • Patterson's former parents-in-law Don and Gail Patterson and Gail's sister Heather Wilkinson died from multiorgan failure caused by death cap mushroom poisoning within days of the lunch, while Heather's husband Ian Wilkinson survived after weeks in hospital and a liver transplant.

  • The 12-member jury deliberated for six days following a 9-week trial in Morwell, Victoria, ultimately reaching unanimous guilty verdicts on all charges after hearing testimony from more than 50 witnesses.


The Spin

Narrative A

This was a premeditated murder plot disguised as a family lunch. Patterson deliberately lured her victims with a fake cancer diagnosis, carefully prepared individual poisoned portions while keeping herself safe, and then engaged in an elaborate cover-up, including destroying evidence and repeatedly lying to police and health officials.

Narrative B

The prosecution's case relied entirely on circumstantial evidence without establishing any clear motive for such heinous crimes. Patterson's lies and evidence disposal can be explained by panic after realizing she may have accidentally poisoned her guests, and her illness symptoms support the tragic accident theory.

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King Charles Marks 20th Anniversary of 7/7 London Bombings

The Facts

  • King Charles issued a statement marking the 20th anniversary of the 7/7 bombings on Monday, expressing his “heartfelt thoughts and special prayers” for those whose lives were “forever changed on that terrible summer’s day.”

  • Four suicide bombers struck London’s transport network on July 7, 2005, detonating improvised explosives targeting three Underground trains and a bus, which killed 52 people and injured more than 770 in the deadliest attack on the city since World War II.

  • The King praised the “extraordinary courage and compassion that emerged from the darkness of that day” and the “selfless bravery” of the emergency services, transport workers, and citizens, which the King stated, “reminds us of the very best of humanity in the face of the very worst.”


The Spin

Pro-government narrative

Twenty years after the 7/7 attacks, the U.K. is in a stronger position than ever before to combat the threats facing the country. While Islamic terrorism remains the gravest danger, it is followed closely by right-wing extremism, hostile states, and cybercriminals. In response to these evolving threats, the government has developed a host of strategies to ensure that catastrophes like this can never happen again.

Government-critical narrative

On the twentieth anniversary of the 7/7 bombings, it is important to remember the casualties of that attack, but also reflect on the challenges faced by the British Muslim community ever since. As a result of aggressive counter-terrorism policies and rampant Islamaphobia, British Muslims feel increasingly socially isolated, which exacerbates the divides in British society and impedes efforts to build a united country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 22.6K deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Texas Floods Kill 82, 41 Still Missing

The Facts

  • Flash floods in Kerr County, central Texas, claimed at least 82 lives, including 28 children, after the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in just 45 minutes early Friday morning, sweeping away homes and vehicles across multiple counties.

  • Ten girls and one counselor from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp in Kerr County, remain missing as search crews continue recovery operations using helicopters, boats, and drones across the devastated landscape.

  • The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings Thursday and Friday, but officials face scrutiny over why camps in the flood-prone area weren't evacuated despite the alerts and the region's vulnerability to flooding.


The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

The disaster exposes dangerous gaps in emergency preparedness caused by the administration's reckless cuts to weather agencies and FEMA. Critical meteorological staff reductions compromised the ability to coordinate with local authorities and provide adequate warnings to vulnerable communities like summer camps. These budget cuts prioritized politics over public safety, contributing to this preventable tragedy.

Pro-establishment narrative

This tragedy highlights the devastating unpredictability of extreme weather events that can overwhelm even the most prepared communities. The Trump administration responded swiftly with federal disaster declarations and resources while maintaining necessary fiscal responsibility in government operations. Local officials did their best with the warnings available, but this once-in-a-century flood exceeded all expectations and preparedness measures.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century will be at least 13% of GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Iran Deports Nearly 450K Afghans Amid Regional Crisis

The Facts

  • Iran deported some 449,218 Afghans between June 1 and July 5, 2025, following Tehran's May directive requiring undocumented migrants to leave by July 6, with daily crossings reaching up to 40,000 at the Islam Qala border crossing in western Herat province.

  • Following mass deportations in 2025, international organizations have reported that 99% of those deported are undocumented persons, and 70% were forcibly returned. Iranian authorities have stated that around 2.6 million Afghans were living in the country illegally.

  • Iranian authorities have justified the deportations on national security grounds, citing concerns about espionage following the 12-day conflict with Israel in June, with over 700 individuals including Afghans arrested on charges of collaboration with Israel.


The Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's brutal deportation of over 450,000 Afghans in 2025 represents a callous betrayal of decades-long hospitality, stripping 2 million of legal protections and forcing families into Taliban-controlled territory. This unconscionable crackdown violates international law, separates children from schools, and condemns vulnerable refugees to destitution — a shameful culmination of systemic persecution masquerading as migration management.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran's mass deportation of undocumented Afghans reflects legitimate national security imperatives amid escalating regional threats and espionage concerns. After hosting over four million refugees for decades while facing crippling sanctions and Israeli attacks, Iran cannot indefinitely shoulder Afghanistan's humanitarian burden alone. Protecting sovereignty and stability isn't cruelty — it's responsible governance amid mounting challenges.

Nerd narrative

There is a 42% chance that Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

FBI, DOJ Conclude Epstein Had No 'Client List,' Committed Suicide

The Facts

  • The FBI and the Department of Justice (DOJ) have concluded that Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender, did not have an incriminating "client list," saying there was no evidence of him blackmailing powerful figures. The agencies also concluded there was no evidence to contradict that he died by suicide.

  • The development comes in a two-page memo from the agencies first acquired and published by Axios. An investigation into Epstein by officials appointed by President Donald Trump "did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties," the memo read.

  • FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino — previously podcasters and MAGA influencers — have reportedly been under pressure from their base to make new disclosures about Epstein, alleged clients, and his cause of death, amid speculation that he did not kill himself.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though Patel and Bongino were among the loudest voices to question whether Epstein's 2019 death was a suicide, the fact that the two have now come out and said there is no evidence of foul play should help quash the conspiracy theories that continue to cause conflict and paranoia.

Establishment-critical narrative

The vast list of questions about the circumstances of Epstein's peculiar death have yet to be answered. This latest release from the FBI and Justice Department is only going to leave people feeling unsatisfied and raise further questions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that the Reddit power user "maxwellhill" will be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Reports: AI a Factor in Record College Grad Unemployment

The Facts

  • Unemployment for recent college graduates in the U.S. has reached levels not seen since November 2013, with some reports claiming 5.8% and others 6.6%, excluding pandemic months, while overall unemployment remains at 4.1%.

  • Entry-level job postings have reportedly declined by 32% since the launch of advanced AI tools, significantly outpacing the overall job market contraction of 21%. For example, graduate hiring in financial services dropped by 44% as companies increasingly replaced new hires with AI.

  • The labor market added 147,000 jobs in June 2025, but hiring has slowed for younger workers with advanced degrees, with Gen Z graduates holding master's degrees facing a 5.8% unemployment rate in the first half of 2025, up from 3% the previous year.


The Spin

Techno-skeptic narrative

AI is one of the main culprits behind this recent trend. Not only are companies opting for AI systems over humans, but those who do have a slight chance to apply for a job must first face an application screening run by an AI bot. Over the course of just a few years, AI has gone from being a thrilling new invention to a market destabilizer. AI companies are now saying the quiet part out loud — their products are going to replace most desk jobs, whether you're a young new hire or have been at the company for decades.

Techno-optimist narrative

While AI is certainly taking over entry-level jobs, it will also create new jobs that only humans can do. The most important niche among these new careers will be AI supervisors, such as lawyers to review AI-generated contracts and teachers to review and deploy AI-generated curricula. Humans will always be needed no matter how tech-heavy our jobs become.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 14.1% of current workers will be replaced by AI systems performing end-to-end labor in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Revokes Terrorist Designation for Syrian Rebel Group HTS

The Facts

  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Monday the revocation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's designation as a foreign terrorist organization, effective Tuesday, through a memo dated June 23 and published in the Federal Register preview.

  • The decision follows President Donald Trump's executive order last week terminating U.S. sanctions on Syria, aimed at reintegrating the war-torn country into the global economy and ending its isolation from international financial systems.

  • HTS, formerly known as al-Nusra Front and previously al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and rebranded itself as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham before becoming HTS, though the U.S. maintained the terrorist designation until now.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This is a pragmatic recognition by the U.S. of the reality on the ground. HTS has demonstrated genuine transformation from its al-Qaeda roots, severing ties years ago and proving its commitment to building an inclusive, democratic Syria. The group has cooperated with U.S. intelligence to foil Islamic State group plots and shows hostility toward Iran, making it a valuable regional partner.

Establishment-critical narrative

Moving too quickly risks legitimizing an authoritarian leader who still concentrates enormous power and could suspend basic rights at will. Despite moderate rhetoric, HTS remains fundamentally Islamist, and recent sectarian tensions raise doubts about whether this transformation will stick long-term. The movement achieved victory through calculated gambles rather than genuine democratic principles. This is a risky move from the U.S.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Sets Aug. 1 Deadline for Trade Deals, Higher Tariffs

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday sent letters to over a dozen nations warning of potential tariffs ranging from 25%-40% if trade deals aren't agreed by Aug. 1 — extending the original July 9 deadline by three weeks.

  • Trump indicated the Aug. 1 deadline might not be absolute, stating it was "firm but not 100% firm" and suggesting flexibility if countries propose alternative arrangements, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported receiving numerous new offers from trading partners.

  • This comes as Bessent confirmed that countries failing to reach agreements will face tariff rates reverting to April 2 levels, which range from 10% to 70% on various goods. This includes major trading partners the EU, Japan, and India.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Trump's tariff strategy creates necessary leverage to rebalance decades of unfair trade relationships that have cost American jobs and factories. The day pause allowed countries time to negotiate, but many have been dragging their feet instead of offering meaningful concessions. Now they must face the consequences of their stalling.

Democratic narrative

Trump's chaotic tariff threats have created dangerous uncertainty for businesses and consumers while risking a global trade war that could trigger a recession. The president appeared confused about his own deadline Sunday, requiring his commerce secretary to clarify the policy. American families are going to pay the price for Trump's recklessness.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that the U.S. Congress will pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources