SCOTUS Lifts Lower Court Block on Federal Layoffs
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday lifted a lower court order that blocked President Donald Trump's plans to institute restructuring and job cuts at more than a dozen federal government agencies in an unsigned order, allowing them to proceed.
In May, U.S. District Judge Susan Illston blocked the "reductions in force" pending further litigation, ruling that Trump overstepped the bounds of presidential power. Such agency restructuring was only licit when "authorized by Congress," Illston wrote.
The SCOTUS ruling stated that the Trump administration was "likely to succeed" in its argument that the president's reorganization orders were lawful and thus stayed the lower court order, while saying that the court took "no view on the legality" of any particular plan.
Democratic narrative
Trump plainly overstepped his boundaries with his orders laying off untold thousands of federal employees, wreaking havoc in the civil service. This plan is likely to see independent workers replaced with Trump sycophants, and the court has enabled this unconstitutional and precedent-shattering workforce reduction. SCOTUS is now more of a rubber stamp than a check on government power.
Republican narrative
The Supreme Court has finally stepped up and ended the legal stonewalling of some of Trump's signature reforms. This near-unanimous ruling affirmed that Trump is not some outlaw, as the liberal media makes him out to be, but is executing a popular and legal reform plan that will trim the fat in the public sector. The days of liberal justices dictating policy for the rest of the nation are over.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 2.7 million people will work for the US federal government in November 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Climate Change Tripled European Heat Wave Deaths
Scientists estimate that climate change tripled heat-related deaths during a European heatwave between June 23 and July 2. Approximately 2,300 people died across 12 major cities, including London, Paris, Milan, Madrid, Barcelona, Athens, Rome, Lisbon, Budapest, Zagreb, Frankfurt, and Sassari.
According to a World Weather Attribution study published on Wednesday, 1,500 of the estimated 2,300 heat-related deaths (65%) were directly attributable to human-caused climate change, which made temperatures 1 to 4 degrees Celsius hotter than they would have been without warming.
Milan recorded the highest absolute number of climate-attributed deaths, at 317 out of a total of 499 heat fatalities. Meanwhile, Madrid experienced the highest proportion, with 90% of deaths linked to climate change, due to its inland location amplifying the warming effect.
Climate-concerned narrative
This heatwave highlights the deadly reality of climate change that's already killing thousands across Europe. The fossil fuel industry's continued pollution is a death sentence for vulnerable populations, particularly older adults, who make up nearly 90% of victims. Oil and gas corporations must be held financially accountable through taxes and fines to cover the soaring health costs their emissions incur.
Climate-skeptic narrative
The recent European heatwave was primarily caused by natural weather patterns, with global warming playing only a modest role in the extreme temperatures. The more extreme a weather event, the greater the contribution of natural variability versus human-caused warming. The high-pressure ridge system responsible for the heat shows no evidence of being caused by global warming, which cannot be attributed to human activities.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the 2˚C climate threshold will be crossed before December 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taiwan Launches Largest Military Drills Amid China Tensions
Taiwan launched its largest-ever Han Kuang military exercises on Wednesday featuring 10-day live-fire drills that are double the length of previous exercises and involving 22,000 reservists — the most ever called up for the annual war games.
The drills feature newly delivered U.S. military equipment, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from Lockheed Martin and M1A2 Abrams tanks, marking their debut in Taiwan's military exercises. The exercises simulate various scenarios, including urban warfare.
The exercises include extensive civil defense components, with civilians participating in air-raid drills, evacuation rehearsals, and testing of emergency supply stations. Supermarket basements are being used as air-raid shelters, and local governments are testing their ability to maintain essential services during a crisis.
Pro-China narrative
These military exercises represent nothing more than a desperate bluff by Taiwan's separatist authorities to drag the Taiwanese people into their independence agenda. The Democratic Progressive Party is harming Taiwan for selfish political gains while attempting to militarize the island under foreign manipulation. No amount of drilling or advanced weaponry can resist the People's Liberation Army's determination to prevent Taiwan's independence and achieve national reunification.
Anti-China narrative
Taiwan's expanded military drills demonstrate the island's serious commitment to defending its democratic way of life against China's authoritarian threats. The exercises showcase Taiwan's growing defensive capabilities and determination to resist Beijing's threats of forced unification and build resilience across both military and civilian sectors. These preparations are essential given China's escalating military pressure and gray-zone warfare tactics that threaten regional stability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 52% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Pentagon Contractors Received $2.4T Over Five Years
According to a new report from the Costs of War Project at Brown University and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, private military contractors received $2.4 trillion in Pentagon contracts from 2020 to 2024 — over half the department's discretionary spending in that period.
The report, published Tuesday, found that five major defense contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman — secured $771 billion in Pentagon contracts between 2020 and 2024, with Lockheed Martin receiving the largest share.
Military spending outpaced diplomatic and humanitarian investments, with the government spending over twice as much on the five largest weapons companies ($771 billion) as on diplomacy, development, and humanitarian aid combined ($356 billion) from 2020 to 2024.
Establishment-critical narrative
This massive transfer of taxpayer wealth to private contractors is profiteering disguised as national security. The military-industrial complex has created an "arsenal of profiteering" that prioritizes corporate profits over genuine defense needs, wasting billions on dysfunctional weapons systems while neglecting diplomacy and humanitarian aid.
Pro-establishment narrative
Strong defense spending is essential for national security in an increasingly complex and dangerous world, where China poses significant military threats that necessitate advanced weapons systems and technological superiority. The defense industry provides crucial jobs across 48 states and maintains America's military edge against adversaries who continue to expand their capabilities.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that any country's military expenditure will exceed that of the U.S. before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran's Foreign Minister Visits Saudi Arabia After Israel-Iran Ceasefire
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Tuesday, marking the first visit by a senior Iranian official to the Gulf kingdom since the 12-day air war between Iran and Israel ended in June.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed hope that the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel would contribute to regional security and stability, emphasizing Saudi Arabia's commitment to diplomatic dialogue as the path to resolving disputes.
Araghchi expressed gratitude to Saudi Arabia for condemning Israeli attacks on Iran and praised the Crown Prince's efforts to promote regional peace and stability during their discussions on bilateral relations and regional developments.
Pro-Iran narrative
This meeting underlines once again that Iran and Saudi Arabia are serious about diplomatic rapprochement, and that U.S. and Israeli aggression cannot undermine emerging Muslim unity. Tehran is grateful for the Kingdom's condemnation of Israel's unprovoked attack on its territory and remains committed to its "neighborhood first" foreign policy of promoting regional peace and stability by strengthening relations with the Gulf states.
Anti-Iran narrative
Saudi Arabia hosting the Iranian Foreign Minister symbolizes pragmatic diplomacy and is by no means a sign of growing trust in the Iranian regime, which has recently proven yet again that it poses a threat to regional stability and peace. This is also the reason why the Gulf states have covertly welcomed the Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Diplomacy is one option for containing Tehran, but caution is needed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 77% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Launches Record Drone Attack After Trump Criticizes Putin
Russia launched its biggest aerial attack of the war in Ukraine in the early hours of Wednesday. It came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump issued some of his harshest criticism of Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to date, accusing him of throwing "bullsh*t" concerning Ukraine peace talks.
Speaking at a cabinet meeting with reporters present on Tuesday, Trump said: "We get a lot of bullsh*t thrown at us by Putin ... He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." He added that he was "very strongly" considering a Senate bill to introduce additional sanctions on Russia.
The remarks came a day after Trump said the U.S. would continue to arm Ukraine with "defensive weapons" following previous reports that the Pentagon would halt some shipments, citing domestic stockpile concerns.
Pro-establishment narrative
After chummying up to Putin and trying to get him to end his invasion with kindness, Trump finally realizes that there's no playing nice with the Russian leader and that he only responds to force. Thankfully, Trump is getting serious about providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs and is also considering sanctions.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Instead of pursuing peace, Russia's latest record-setting attack gives a more accurate reflection of where its true intentions lie. It is only interested in inflicting terror on Ukraine — this underscores why further sanctions should placed on Moscow, while reiterating Ukraine's need for additional air-defense missiles from its allies.
Pro-Russia narrative
The U.S. talks about achieving peace but takes actions that only work to drive the situation in the opposite direction. Providing Ukraine with additional weapons will not facilitate a diplomatic solution to the conflict and makes such a resolution less likely.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sunak Returns to Goldman Sachs as Senior Adviser
Former U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been appointed as a senior adviser to Goldman Sachs, marking his return to the investment bank where he previously worked as an analyst from 2001 to 2004. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon announced that Sunak will advise clients globally on macroeconomic and geopolitical matters while contributing to the firm's culture of learning and development.
The Advisory Committee on Business Appointments approved Sunak's role with significant restrictions, including a ban on lobbying the U.K. government until July 2026 and limitations on advising matters that overlap with his prime ministerial responsibilities. The committee cited risks that his appointment could offer unfair access and influence within the U.K. government.
Sunak's compensation from Goldman Sachs will be donated entirely to The Richmond Project, a charity he established with his wife to boost numeracy skills in the U.K. The former prime minister initially sought approval for the position in May but was required to wait one year from his last day in ministerial office before assuming the role.
Narrative A
Sunak's return to Goldman Sachs epitomizes the revolving door between Westminster and Wall Street. Though regulated by cooling-off periods and restrictions, former prime ministers possess irreplaceable institutional knowledge and networks. When public servants who shaped financial policy immediately monetize that privileged access, it corrodes democratic legitimacy and transforms governance into a stepping-stone rather than public service.
Narrative B
Sunak's return to Goldman Sachs epitomizes a symbiotic business venture. For the former prime minister, it's a lucrative homecoming that preserves his parliamentary seat while monetizing his geopolitical expertise. For Goldman, it's a strategic coup — acquiring unparalleled access to government networks, international relationships, and insider knowledge that transforms client advisory services into premium offerings backed by Downing Street credentials.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that the U.K. will achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
X CEO Linda Yaccarino Steps Down
Linda Yaccarino announced in an X post on Wednesday that she is stepping down as CEO of X after two years leading Elon Musk's social media platform, expressing gratitude for the opportunity for "protecting free speech" and "transforming X into the Everything App."
Yaccarino joined X in June 2023 from NBCUniversal where she served as chair of global advertising and partnerships, tasked with rebuilding advertiser confidence after Musk's acquisition and platform changes.
Under Yaccarino's leadership, X introduced Community Notes for fact-checking, launched X Money financial services, and maintained its position as the most used social discourse platform in the United States despite advertiser challenges.
Narrative A
Yaccarino deserves recognition for her service during a critical period when free speech was under attack. X provided a vital platform for voices that would otherwise be silenced, giving millions of users the ability to express themselves freely. Her steady leadership helped preserve this essential digital town square.
Narrative B
Yaccarino faced enormous challenges working with an unpredictable owner who consistently undermined her efforts. Musk's erratic behavior made her job nearly impossible. The platform struggled with advertiser boycotts and content moderation crises throughout her tenure.
Narrative C
The Grok AI disaster was a catastrophic failure under Yaccarino’s leadership. This debacle, which damaged X's reputation globally, directly led to her resignation. It exposed the risks of rushing AI deployment without safeguards and highlighted the ongoing crises Yaccarino struggled to manage.
Nerd narrative
There is a 80% chance that Elon Musk will be the richest person in the world by the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Threatens Federal Takeover of DC, NYC
U.S. President Donald Trump during a Tuesday Cabinet meeting said that his administration is considering a federal takeover of Washington, D.C., claiming that the White House has "tremendous power" to "run places when we have to" and that crime would be reduced to "a minimum" under federal control.
Trump's comments came while discussing New York City's mayoral race, where he labeled Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani a "communist" rather than a "socialist" and suggested federal intervention if Mamdani wins. Trump said that if "a communist gets elected to run New York, it can never be the same."
Mamdani leads the polling for New York mayor with 35% support, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 25% and incumbent Eric Adams at 11%. Trump has threatened to arrest Mamdani and strip his citizenship over immigration enforcement policies.
Republican narrative
Trump has been tasked with restoring America's greatness, and if these liberal cities can't run themselves properly, it's the president's duty to step in. Crime and mismanagement are making these places uninhabitable, and the answer certainly isn't electing a communist to run the country's economic capital.
Democratic narrative
Trump's authoritarian instincts can't help but lead him to threaten and intimidate places where he isn't the primary character. His threats to take over D.C. and New York are based on falsities about crime in Washington and Mamdani's political standing. He should focus on things that are constitutionally within his purview.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that Mamdani will be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.